The Stockdale Paradox
By Tom Casey and Claire L. Hebert-Dow with Lizy Freudmann
As we near November, it is not an exaggeration to say the interest of the world is focused on the United States Presidential election.
?The elongated political campaign can be portrayed as having begun in November 2020 when election results were disputed.
Events such as January 6; lawsuits contributing to a precipitous decline of faith in judicial institutions; pronounced constituency polarization; cats as Haitian cuisine or affinity pets for single women have us all wanting the election to pass.
The acrimony in the States’ political arena led many DPC relationships to pose two questions as a research component for our newest book, Leadership’s Future -Confronting Not Condoning!:
Addressing question #2 first, normalcy may be nostalgic as the likely election outcome will be approximately half of the United States electorate feeling disenfranchised.
The postulation of Question #1 initiated Discussion Partners’ interest in historical precedent whereby despite challenges the United States survived.
Our objective was to engender a fact- based point of view in relationship discourse where assertions could be conveyed that, despite chaos, optimism is not misplaced.
To avoid relying on speculation, DPC sought a theoretical foundation to assist in data review anticipating the elections’ likely polarizing outcome.
The Stockdale Paradox is a technique to navigate challenging and ambiguous times by combining the ability to confront the brutal facts of current reality, while maintaining unwavering faith that you will ultimately prevail.
During our search for “precedents,” the one deemed by a vote within the DPC community were the events leading up to the Civil War.
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While historians dispute if this event was due to slavery, states’ rights, or economic vibrancy. What is inarguable is the parallels to today’s situation.
In 1820 the Missouri Compromise allowed for the admission of Missouri as a “slave state” and Maine as a “free state.”
In 1857 the Dred Scott decision declared it illegal for Congress to abolish slavery while:
a) challenging the constitutionality of the Missouri Compromise
b) declaring free persons of color could not enjoy the benefits of citizenship while
c) appearing to be politically biased in its rulings given the residential origins of justices.
The election of Lincoln in 1860 necessitated many to declare “loyalty.” ?Robert E. Lee was considered for the position of US Army leader; Jefferson Davis was a US Senator and later President of the Confederacy; and John Breckenridge was Vice President prior to 1860 and went on to be Secretary of War in the Confederacy.
Embedding The Stockdale Paradox into our book’s research indicated despite today’s chaos, it is not counterfactual to be optimistic.? ?
The unambiguous result of the research for Leadership’s Future-Confronting Not Condoning! was regardless of where one is on the political spectrum, or country of residence, there is “revulsion with rhetoric."?
In closing our client work and first party research has led us to crave December 2024 as the pivot point to replace conjecture with certainty, veracity becoming normative, and self promotional hypocrisy confronted.
Optimism was the overarching sentiment expressed by research respondents IF focused discussions of beneficial leadership attributes are promoted and when evidenced celebrated.
Financial Advisor and Non Profit Board Member
1 个月The recent excellent book, “The Demon of Unrest” by Erik Larson which chronicles the events between Lincoln’s election and the outbreak of Civil War also helps to answer these questions.