Stock Market is destined to soar higher: Masses are not bullish, and $50 trillion is sitting on the sidelines

Men are afraid to rock the boat in which they hope to drift safely through life's currents, when, actually, the boat is stuck on a sandbar. They would be better off to rock the boat and try to shake it loose, or, better still, jump in the water and swim for the shore. Thomas Szasz

From a contrarian angle (and not a political point of view) a Trump win could be construed as a positive development; non-contrarians will demand to know why? Mass Psychology clearly states that the masses are always on the wrong side of the equation. A Trump win will create uncertainty, and the lemmings will flee for the exits; markets will pull back sharply and viola the same old cycle will come into play. The cycle of selling based on fear which equates to opportunity for those who refuse to allow their emotions to do the talking. Full Story 

If we look at earnings and the underlying fundamentals, then it is easy to state that the stock market should have crashed a long time ago. Earnings are tepid and in many cases were it not for aggressive share buyback programs the outlook would look even more terrible. Regarding the economy, it is the strong stock market that helps support the illusion that the economy is doing well. Unofficially the unemployment rate is north of 20%. Why the huge discrepancy; the BLS (Bureau of Labour statistics) does not count individuals who have given up looking for a job even though they are unemployed. This paints a false picture of what is going on; many people are demoralised after trying in vain to land a new job that they have just given up. However, despite all these negative factors we have stated over and over again that this market is destined to trend higher. We provided many reasons for this in 2014, 2015 and 2016. The two most important of these are:

Hot money is supporting the market, and the Fed will not stop supporting this market because it is the only factor that promotes the illusion of a healthy economy

This is still one of the most hated bull markets of all time- the crowd has not embraced this market, and no bull market has ever ended on a sour note 

There is a massive amount of cash sitting on the sidelines; $50 trillion to be precise and this clearly cements the view that the crowd is far from euphoric. Until the masses are jumping in Joy, it is highly unlikely that the stock market will experience a crash.

Black Rock puts the figure at more than $50 trillion, a figure that includes a host of different metrics, from central-bank assets to financial-firm reserves and consumer savings accounts. Other measures show a similar trend. Private-equity firms are amassing great piles of liquid securities, with Blackstone saying that nearly one-third of its assets are in cash. Fund managers, in general, have boosted reserves as a share of their portfolios to levels that match the highest since 2001. Full Story  

This chart shows that private equity firms are steadily building up their cash reserves; they have been waiting for the so-called fair valued market. A concept that makes absolutely no sense today; trying to assign a fair value on. Continue reading