Stock Market Cycle High

Late-October Buy Signals Reach Fruition...

Why is February 5 - 9th Pivotal?

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Opening Ranges & Pivot Points - Decision Day Approaches!

01-31-24 Weekly Re-Lay Alert - “Opening ranges play a key role in analyzing the markets.? That has been evident in many trading systems (like Market Profile, which was heavily used by day traders in the 1980’s & 1990’s) and/or approaches to analyzing and timing market movement & swings.

The intra-month & intra-year trends are an example of these.?

Another involves a tactic I have used for the past ~30 years, providing swing points or confirmation points throughout the year.?

This was originally described in a pair of articles I published in the early-1990’s - using a Gann-like breakdown of each year in which every ~40 days (which has its own significance) represents 1/9th of the year… and every three of those times 1/3rd.

The first two are the most important - timing inflection points around February 9/10 (the completion of the first 40-day period - a period of ‘testing’ or ‘preparation’) and around March 20/21 (the completion of the second 40-day period and also the Vernal Equinox - the completion and beginning of the Natural Year).

There are certain years - like 2024 - when related, corroborating cycles heighten the focus on those time frames.? Potentially, one of the more significant ones is that in Gold, Silver & the XAU - with intermediate cycles converging in the days surrounding February 9th.?

If Gold & Silver are able to turn their daily trends & daily 21 MACs up in the coming days, they could experience accelerated surges into ~February 9th.

That is also the recurrence of a ~21-week low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in energy/inflation (GSCI) markets...

While all of this could be the result of the normal ebb and flow of market action, there are enough other factors to hint that an external event could be the impetus for part of these moves.? The action leading into February 9/10 is as critical as what follows.

Stock Indices are showing significant divergence at the highs with the weaker indexes (DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400) remaining below their mid-Dec or late-December peaks as the DJIA, S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 rallied into late-January…??

Stock indexes are in the time frame when the 2-Year Cycle has timed a multi-month high in 2018, 2020 & 2022 - perpetuating a ~24-month low (Jan/Feb ’14) - low (Jan/Feb ’16) - high (Jan ’18) - high (Jan/Feb ’20) - high (Jan ’22) - (high; January 2024) Cycle Progression.? As a result, another multi-month peak has been expected in this time frame…?

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There is a nearly-ubiquitous cycle in the Nasdaq-100 that corroborates this.? For the past ~two decades, the NQ-100 has consistently traded in 14 - 15-week and 28 - 29-week cycles - swinging from high - low, low - high, high - high, and/or low - low in these intervals.?

[Several reports were published in early-2009, detailing how the convergence of these cycles was projecting a major bottom for March 2009.]

The 28 - 29-week cycle is the one in focus for this discussion.? That ~6.5-month cycle has timed the swings from the mid-May ’21 low to the Nov 2021 peak to the mid-June ’22 low to the late-Dec/early-Jan ’23 low to the mid-July ’23 high to the current time frame - when an intermediate peak is likely…

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This potential peak was preceded (presaged?) by weaker indexes like the DJTA… which has played the same role since the late-1990’s when it peaked in May 1999, 8 - 10 months before the DJIA, S+P 500 & Nasdaq.? (By the time those indexes peaked, the DJTA had already lost about 30% of its value.)? It played that role again in 4Q 2014, Sept 2018 & January 2020.

The DJTA peaked in July 2023, perpetuating a ~5-month low (April ’22**) - low (Sept ’22) - high (Feb 2023) - high (July 2023) Cycle Progression - that projected a lower high 5 months later… in December 2023.?

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?**The April 2022 low was also 5 months after the November ’21 peak - completing an initial ~5-month decline that ‘set’ that cycle and represented the midpoint of the overall ~10-month decline into Sept 2022.

That Sept 2022 low was followed by the ~10-month rebound into July 2023 - that retraced .786 (2nd Degree Golden Ratio) of the initial decline - the textbook rally for a ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave bounce.?

After declining and rebounding into Dec ’23 - another bounce that peaked at the .786 (2DGR) rebound level - the DJTA sold off but has not yet turned its weekly trend down (needed to confirm the Dec ’23 peak).

That could trigger [reserved for subscribers]…

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Bonds & Notes have rebounded strongly after fulfilling projections for an overall decline into last week, fulfilling a ~14-week low-high-low-low-(low; Jan 22 - 26, 2024) Cycle Progression and setting the stage for a new rally into February ’24 - when diverse cycles project an intermediate peak in SOFRs.

The weekly trend reinforced that outlook, increasing the likelihood for a rally in the current week(s)… The weekly trend reversal (Bonds) signals that a multi-week low is likely taking hold and that a reactive 2 - 3 week rally should follow.? That reversal signal is a lagging/confirming indicator, often triggered near the culmination of an initial move.

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In contrast, Notes are signaling the same thing but from a different perspective.? Notes dropped to critical support and their weekly 21 High MAC while preventing the weekly trend from turning down.? That projected a rally back to the late-December high (whereas Bonds are less likely to retest those highs) leading into those February ’24 cycle highs.

Bonds & Notes are attacking their weekly LHR levels, reinforcing that another 1 - 2 month peak should take hold in the coming week(s)…”? ?????

-- End January 31, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert excerpt

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In late-2022/early-2023, stock indexes signaled the end of a year-long correction - and the fulfillment of a 7-Year Cycle from the 2002, 2009 & 2016 lows - and projected strong rallies to follow.?

Throughout 2023, one key cycle - and time frame - was in focus for the next decisive peak:

The 2-Year Cycle… Returning in January/February 2024!

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In late-October 2023, those same stock indexes signaled the end of a ~3-month decline - the result of a pivotal ‘Danger Period’ that had been forecast to begin in late-July 2023.? Those indexes triggered multiple buy signals and projected - yet again - an overall advance into January 2024.

In both cases, it was the synergy of converging cycles and corroborating trading signals that ushered in those lows and projected strong surges to follow.?

The key is knowing how to validate those cycles and recognize the corresponding signals when they are triggered.

Inversely similar to how they did at those two critical cycle lows, stock indexes are beginning to show signs of a developing top while providing clues about what would signal a final peak.?

They are also revealing why February 5 - 9, 2024 should be a decisive week related to these cycles.? Refer to latest publications for more details.

Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.

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