Is A Stock Market Crash Possible This Fall?
I don't normally write like this on the weekends but I found
so many interesting things to write about I could not help but
share it with you.
I've been researching the stock market for over 40 years. I find
it fascinating and it's rewarded me 10,000 times over.
One of the investment newsletters I subscribe to had an interesting chart on it's first page. It depicts 3 month Treasury Bill Yields rising above 5% that led to market sell-offs.
In 1999 during the dot-com bubble the 3 month T-Bill rose from
about 4% to?6.25% and we all know what happened. Stocks tanked
especially the hi-flying tech stocks which plunged 78%.
Again in 2007, the 3 month T-Bill rose from about 1% to over 5%
and the S&P and DOW crashed 58%.?
Since about 2009 we've had historic lows in the 3 month T-Bill
rate. It reached a low of .01% in May of 2021.
As of August 2023 the rate is 5.32%. So we've gone from a low of
.01% to 5.32%. If history is any guide, and I think it is, we are very
close to another stock market crash... and because it is the fastest
hiking of rates we've seen in almost 40 years, it could also be the
worst crash we've seen yet.
And it could start this Fall. Seasonally September, October and
November are weak months for stocks. Add that factor to the 3 month
T-Bill rate above 5% and you have the recipe and the ingredients for a
crash.
Those aren't the only ingredients though that could lead to a stock
market melt-down.
Another disturbing stat, with solid historical precendence, is foreign
investment in US stock markets. Foreigners have unusually bad timing.
In 1999 foreign investment peaked at about $25 billion of net inflows.
The market crashed.
In 2007 foreign investors boosted their game and put about $47
billion into the US markets. The market crashed from 2007-2009.
In June, this year (2023), foreign investors went 'all-in' and sent
$120 billion into US stocks! Almost 3 times as much as 2007!
Will the market crash? I'd say the odds are getting higher every day.
But the crash may not even start in the US.
China has been a powerhouse of an economy, rising year after
year for 40 years, sporting some super-high GDP numbers and
export numbers.
No one can argue they haven't experienced unprecedented growth.
That's changing quickly.
China Evergrande one of the highest-flying real estate developers
in China and the largest homebuilder in China has been descimated and
it's stock declined 95% in a matter of months. Just a few weeks ago on
August 18th, 2023 they filed for bankrupcy protection.
China Garden Holdings, another major China real estate developer has
had similair troubles. It lost $6.7 billion in the first half of 2023 and
it's stock price has plunged from 18.00 to .65 cents (in HKD) - a 96% decline.
Consumer confidence is so bad the Chinese Bureau of statistics has
stopped publishing its Consumer Confidence Index. The last time it was
published in April 2023, confidence declined a massive 45% from the previous
report.
No wonder they stopped publishing it.
China's exports are down dramatically as well. YoY exports were down 14.5%
as reported in July. The situation has gotten so grave that China's top securities regulator summoned the country's top banks, national pension funds and insurers to pressure them into investing more into Chinese stocks. They were also putting pressure on journalists and media outlets to avoid using negative language when discussing China's economy or capital flowing out of the country.
At home the US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, openly admits that his goal is to dramatically 'slow down' the US economy. And that the effects of interest rate hikes have 'yet to filter though the economy'. He anticipates that regular, hard working Americans will experience 'pain' before the Fed meet its goals.
All he has to do is keep raising rates, which he will do again this Fall, to get his
wish.
There's nothing you and I can do about it. We can't help the US economy but
we can help ourselves, and help our 'personal economy'.
I started Trade the Curve to help everyone become independent of the?
US economy, the Chinese economy and market crashes. I started it to
improve your life - economically.
As additional help,?take 10% OFF the Elite System?this weekend only.
After clicking the order link, you'll see a "Add coupon" link. Click that
and type?coupon code:?10perc
Happy Labor Day weekend
Our members are growing and seeing success. Here are
just a few of the dozens of positive comments the system
is getting daily:
"Before this I thought ‘day trading’ was a myth and?
impossible - Ive tried that for 20 years. Done very?
well at option income theta strategies- but could never?
crack the ‘day trading’ nut until this method" - Dan W
"I like all your trading materials. They are really
good, simple and not complicated. Thanks for making time to
produce all these good stuff!" - Jessie Z. (Singapore)
"Your [system] is truly an answer you MY prayers....?
Been looking for something like this FOREVER...?
Don't tell.... But that sucker is the Holy Grail..."
-Jon R.
"took a little bit of seconds….?- total for day: +$835.00"
-Dan W.
“…just trading the system gave me my first 4-figure?
trading day… $1,037.50” -Tom B.
“GM in short at -736 out at -781 for 267.00 for the day”?
- Merrill C.
“short at -560 … out at -712 +$690 profit” - Jim H.
"They are very powerful strategies…the strategies is (sic)?
worth 1000 times the course that we invested in."
?- Ben S.
?
?“…on my practice account these trades have yielded $2200?
?in profits over the past two days.” - Stuart K.
?
“I know Dave over 10 years and he has been a blessing for?
me and my family!! It takes a village to be a trader?
I made $215 and so happy” - Abe W.
“Just wanted to let you know that I closed out my first?
live trade… my net return on this trade was $2,037…that’s?
a period of 9-days” - Changis
“I am 64 and I know I have bought a to of systems over?
the years… Daves message doesn’t leave me with any doubt?
that this system should be the only system to master now?
and forget the rest” - Jag P.
“I’m blown away by the content. Your delivery and?
instruction is top notch. You truly are opening eyes?
and changing lives with this.” Kieran C.
"Out +700 + 937.50 total $1637.50. I took two?
positions…” - Steve A.
“Forgive my French, but that (session) just absolutely?
F-ING blew me away!!! I am SOOO VERY GLAD I joined,?
I am very excited and very grateful that you shared?
this technique!” Phil T.
“I’ve spent… I’m sure 25k-30k on trading education…?
and I have rarely received the level of attention?
and customer service Dave delivers.” - Jeff N.
“One Micro each way MES/MYM, paper trade. Long?
at 10am at -595 / Out at 14:07 at -498 / Profit?
of $82+" - Lucie B
“After a week of trading real money, I’m now up?
$567, and that’s after a silly, stupid first day…?
I toned it down and followed the indicators…” - Mark F.
You haven't seen anything like Trade the Curve before, ever.