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Equity markets gave back some of last week’s gains as the post-election commotion has settled back down, and more mundane things like stubborn inflation and Fed policy have come back into focus. The S&P 500 fell 2.1%, with health care still under pressure, while technology and communication services were also down meaningfully. Banks and energy, both of which were post-election winners, sat firm at the top of the pack this week.

Meantime, the TSX added 0.5%, as a 12% surge in technology (i.e., Shopify) drove most of the gain in the index. Elsewhere, the results were much less inspiring. Energy added 1.2% alongside some solid earnings results, but most sectors including materials, health care and telecom were well in the red.

The October U.S. CPI report was right on expectations, but inflation remains stubborn. Core inflation held at 3.3% y/y in the month, while the index rose at a 3.4% annualized clip month-over-month. The 3-month trend is also running at a warm 3.6% clip. Aside from a very soft run from May to July, which has pulled the 6-month annualized rate down to 2.6%, it looks like underlying inflation has settled in just above 3%. Overall, it’s hard to do much better than that when owners’ equivalent rent is running steady in the 4%-to-6% range, but even ‘supercore’ (services) has warmed up again. We still see the Fed easing again in December, but if core inflation does in fact settle around 3%, it would slow the easing pace and could put a floor under the terminal rate for this cycle.

Fed Chair Powell subsequently weighed in with a less-dovish tone. He said that “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates”...and that “the strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully”.

That’s Fedspeak for, ‘we probably won't be cutting rates at every meeting’. Indeed, the market is now pricing in less than full odds (call it roughly 60%) of a rate cut in December, and just under 50 bps of easing over the next four meetings. With a potentially higher terminal rate, sturdy growth and (presumably) deficit-widening fiscal policy ahead, 10-year yields have risen roughly 80 bps from the September low. Equity investors are back to calibrating their valuation models.

Source: 满地可银行

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Paul is a former IBM Customer Success Manager who has deployed over 300 data and AI solutions across industries and geographies for the past 8 years. Paul is a Financial Planning, Analysis, and Reporting SME working with data including integration of macro and micro indicators as part of the integrated business planning and reporting cycle.

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