Will there still be human experts 20 years from now?
Christophe Derdeyn
Managing Director | Lean IT Practitioner | Operational Excellence | Globalist | Board Advisor | Mentor | Endurance Athlete
The downside of (advanced) automation: What about our future experts?
Over the past quarter-century, the evolution of computers has been remarkable, resulting in highly compact devices that excel in performance. However, this progress has led to a situation where these sophisticated machines, resembling little more than inscrutable boxes to the average person, are challenging for the average person to disassemble or rebuild.
The last decade has witnessed a significant shift towards cloud solutions, with software increasingly operating seamlessly without the need for extensive installation or configuration. While this convenience is evident, it brings forth a notable consequence—only the dinosaur-generation, to which I belong, seems to comprehend the intricate components of a computer (such as RAM, disk, CPU, GPU) or the true nature of application virtualization and virtual machines. Consequently, newer generations face an escalating challenge in grasping these complexities.
This trend extends beyond computing to various domains, where once straightforward tasks like engine repair for mechanics, have become reliant on specialized electronics. Contemporary engines often defy assessment or repair without the aid of sophisticated machines, leaving individuals with a limited understanding of the system's stability and efficiency, and little ability to make adjustments without technological guidance.
My concern deepens as the aging "dinosaurs" exit the workforce, taking with them active knowledge. The risk of technology becoming a black box looms larger, with only a handful of individuals possessing the know-how to address issues when they arise. Conversations with professionals in various fields, such as a commercial airline pilot who foresees increasing redundancy in their role, underscore the extent of this automation.
The central worry, then, is how can we cultivate human experts in a world where routine exposure to fundamental, repetitive activities diminishes? How can individuals gain the necessary understanding, competence, and specialization when faced with increasingly complex technologies?
Emergency intervention, problem-solving, and the ability to discern issues in computer systems become challenging for those who lack practical experience. In my 25 years of experience, I've observed that while schools and universities provide a foundational knowledge, on-the-job exposure is crucial for individuals to develop a profound understanding, instill best practices, and execute tasks with excellence.
We find ourselves in a world where learning becomes increasingly difficult, as the breadth and depth of knowledge required to operate anything reach levels that make it nearly impossible for individuals to gain the expertise expected of them.
As we peer into the future, the question arises: which experts will we need but may not have two decades from now?
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8 个月Xtophe, I think microcomputers will be disassembled by machines. But how do we reconnect with nature to re-balance our technology addiction? Children in some developed countries are freaking disconnected... khm.. or the other way around, they are too much online, disconnected from life. https://www.newsweek.com/cows-lay-eggs-according-10-percent-schoolchildren-study-says-1476600 This is where the almost extinct Hungarian tradition of "kaláka" comes in from another maverick IT guy. This community-based work party fosters a sense of connection and collaboration, encouraging people to spend time outdoors, farm and build more sustainable structures. Do you know of similar initiatives that reduce the speed of technology, promote nature connection and sustainable living in your region? Let's discuss!
Hempcreteyurt - industrial hemp crowd collaboration to lock CO2 in buildings
8 个月paradox indeed
Quantitative Problem Solver
8 个月Thank you for this. I think the topic of whether experts will still be around in the future is debatable. While it is true that many domains of knowledge will become obsolete, like what Andrew Shuttleworth said, many other domains, previously unheard of, will also be created. Perhaps the real worry about the loss of knowledge is in the area of fundamental sciences and mathematics. Where lack of progress might eventually prevent a quantum leap in tech advancement. But beyond that, I also sometimes wonder whether we've truly thought about what and who all this automation and productivity "improvements" are for? Is it important that I buy the next thing I don't need and get 1h delivery? Is it important that I watch another video with time that I don't have?
Head of Brand & Corporate Communications | I write about AI x Marketing and Branding | Keynote speaker | Founder @AInspirations, Asia-focused AI newsletter
9 个月I often wonder if schools can integrate imparting foundational knowledge with hands on experience? I think in this era of AI and Artificial Intelligence/VR and other technological advancements, there isn’t a need for these two fields to be mutually exclusive. Perhaps educators, governments and employers should come together to develop a new set of educational curriculum that can integrate both (foundation knowledge and real life industry experience) and shift away from textbooks, exam papers and worksheets. The real test for our future generations does not lie in the AL1s they have scored in school, but how resilient, adaptable and resourceful they can be in these uncertain and volatile times.
Driving an Edtech platform and community designed to level up marketing and PR practitioners with strategies, frameworks and content, providing their organisations with a competitive advantage.
9 个月This is a good thought area to explore. Thank you for bringing jt up. I am less concerned that the master/specialist to apprentice relationships will devolve or dilute, as enterprising people will find a way to acquire knowledge that provides them a competitive edge. Instead, my worry is whether the teaching remains at the same baseline level, and there does not improve and enrich future generations. If an AI/bot can teach it, why would we find a master/specialist? And if the specialist gives the same information as a bot, what happens to mastery of a topic?