Still counting on COBOL

At the turn of 2024 , and again more recently , I discussed the reenergized nature of the mainframe and application modernization market. I was excited to see what would unfold in terms of innovations and market developments in what many saw as a bourgeoning corner of the tech industry - in terms of market buoyancy, technological innovation, and notable celebration. As we reflect on year to date, it hasn't disappointed.

Investing for growth

Encouraging evidence abounds, no matter how you want to measure the broader mainframe modernization software and services market.

Fundamentally, the market is defined by the amount of workload (production systems) it supports, which would be an aggregation of deployment revenues from the likes of IBM and the major cloud providers. In all cases, 2024 has seen continued growth in deployment-based revenues across all leaders in the sector. A?Futurum article from earlier this year, explained “While mainframes continue to be a stronghold, showing impressive resilience and growth…there is an equally compelling narrative unfolding in the realm of mainframe modernization…particularly evident with the maturation of alternatives”.

In addition, as evidenced by research reports such as from ISG , the major global system integrators have all invested in mainframe modernization and related service offerings in support of the growing market demand. Largely without exception, the household names in the GSI space appear high on the list of influential providers, some of which also include supporting technology. In nearly every case, offerings include the necessary flexibility in terms of both how and where any modernization program might be undertaken – echoing a broad range of ever-maturing possibilities and customer preferences.

Alongside the ecosystem and services suppliers, the vendor community has been equally busy plotting and releasing innovative solutions to offer greater choice – not least in AI. As witnessed at this summer’s SHARE event, major strides have been taken this year by many suppliers, including BMC, AveriSource, Heirloom, IBM, and Broadcom. It is telling to see new entrants investing in solutions for the same market, Bloop.ai being just one such example. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

There’s a Party Goin’ On ‘Round Here

April saw the 60th anniversary of the IBM mainframe, and the community marked the occasion with a range of celebratory pieces showcasing the enduring success of ‘big iron’. August’s SHARE event – one of the main mainframe community events of the year – was overwhelmingly upbeat and positive. Users, vendors, consultants, apprentices, educators, jobseekers and tech media came together for an energetic and positive celebration of the mainframe’s achievements, showcasing what’s in store for the next generation of mainframe-related technology.

Another anniversary was harder to pin down: COBOL’s 65th birthday. The challenge is which milestone to use: the start of the project, the naming of the tech, the publication of the specification, or the first release of the tech, or even the first global standard? I chose when COBOL was given its name, which was 18th September 1959. Marking the occasion, COBOL activists have taken to the internet to express their appreciation. I’m pleased to have offered my own point of view with the support of Computing , Planet Mainframe , Tech Channel , and Elnion.com . Elsewhere, commentary from Mike Rozlog , Venkat Balabhadrapatruni , Uwe Graf , and modernization technologists Averisource added further perspective.

Additionally, I oversaw the publication of what I’ve called the COBOL 65 Guest Book (hosted by Elnion). The idea was devised by the COBOL Working Group (part of the Open Mainframe Project), to help mark the 65th anniversary, and captures the perspectives of experts who have been working with COBOL, whose opinion – we believe - matters.

When someone asks me ‘why COBOL?’ I typically explain that it is easy to learn, executes anywhere, and runs a big chunk of the economy – it is truly a legendary technology. As we compiled the guest book, it was interesting how that sentiment was echoed back by other experts, for example –

“Any developer worth their salt in any other language anywhere could learn enough COBOL in a week to maintain code,” Chad Rikansrud, Mainframe and R&D Expert; Tom Harper, expert z/OS developer, claims “COBOL is so easy to understand, I could teach it to you in an afternoon.”

“Modern day COBOL operates efficiently and effectively on virtually any modern operating environment and within literally any Cloud Service Provider.” Craig Marble, Expert Application Modernization Practitioner.

“Many critical IT systems, covering billions of lines of code and across many industries,?dating back as far as?the sixties, rely on the?power and stability?of COBOL. However,?in today’s world of computing, COBOL?utilises modern development processes and?environments, and?happily integrates with?other cutting-edge?platforms technologies. It’s as modern as everything else - it is truly a?language for the ages”. Mike Madden, Owner, Legacy IT.

“I don’t refer to COBOL as legacy, but rather as legendary COBOL.” Bill Hinshaw, CEO, Cobol Cowboys, LLC .

A further quote, from the IEEE Top Programming Languages 2024 report , offers a further mention: “Cobol is more broadly in demand, as many government and financial systems still rely on decades-old infrastructure.” A nod towards COBOL’s continued importance is both encouraging and timely.

Common Business as Usual?

In technology, a year is a long time. Change is constant, and you are never done – so you must never be complacent. For a sexagenarian technology such as COBOL, that’s especially true. There are many in the industry who will never subscribe to the notion that COBOL has a future, so, while we will find a moment to celebrate a milestone or two, the relentless treadmill of supporting IT change, discussing and strategizing over technology, being pragmatic and business focused, remains paramount.

Onwards, therefore, to events such as the Open Mainframe Summit in October, to GSE UK conference in November, and to SHARE in DC in February 2025, where COBOL will remain firmly on the agenda.

Why? Well, COBOL’s continued importance continues to defy all reasonable predictions of its lifespan.

Might it still matter in the future? You can count on it.

For More Information

Planet Mainframe Series

·?????? PART 1: IT’s Key Ingredients - Planet Mainframe

·?????? PART 2: COBOL— Thriving to survive - Planet Mainframe

·?????? PART 3: COBOL— The Experts’ View - Planet Mainframe

·?????? PART 4: COBOL—The Road Ahead - Planet Mainframe

Interviews

·?????? Interview on TFIR Channel (Video )

·?????? Interview on Elnion Channel (Video )

·?????? COBOL65 Guest Book