Statistics don't lie.

We were doing some basic research to look at unemployment in the communities we work in. According to the graphic above by the International Labour Organization (see ilo.org), unemployment amongst youths in Sub Saharan Africa was approximately 11.6% in 2014 (estimate).

According to Merriam Webster (online) a simple definition of 'youth' is:

": the time of life when someone is young : the time when a young person has not yet become an adult"

(see https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/youth)

The International Labor Organization (ILO) who produced the graphic above considers youths as being between the ages of 15 and 24.  This is a group that is (in some cases) in transition, having finished secondary or perhaps tertiary education and is ready to put their skills and knowledge to work.

The only problem is that (a) the skills and knowledge they have may not align with what the market needs; and (b) there may be insufficient jobs available in the market.

In Tanzania as an example, the unemployment amongst youths was estimated at 13.4% in 2015. Then President Kikwete noted that 800,000 people are entering the labor force every year, and that the number of people seeking jobs will double to 50,000,000 by 2030.

He also noted the desire of all - young and old to find a decent, well paying job. (see https://www.youthemploymentdecade.org/en/repor/youth-unemployment-national-priority-tanzania/)

In a country where the Gross National Income per capita was estimated at $920 in 2014  its hard to comprehend what is meant by 'well paying'.

(see https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD/countries/TZ-ZF-XM?display=graph)

And remember that any statistics are both derived from a variety of sources, and averaged out or 'adapted' to fit an index. This means that there can be a tremendous amount of variation from person to person (even in the same job), much less based on location (rural versus urban for example).

Our own survey of 13 villages which included over 200 adults (including some classified as youths) showed that the AVERAGE person reported earning about $400 US per year in cash. This was based on 4 'harvests' or 'sales' per year...so when the crops or bulls were ready for market, they made money (about $100 per time, 4 times per year).

When further exploring these stats, its worth noting that Tanzania defines youths as between the ages of 15 and 34. At 34 I had been working full time for 13 years, had a mortgage, 1 child, and had recently finished a graduate degree.

I certainly did not 'feel' like a youth.

Why the different age range?

Tanzania is a wonderfully beautiful, abundant country. The people are friendly, the environment spectacular. The infrastructure - while stressed continues to develop albeit perhaps not fast enough to satisfy the increasing demand.

But, like a lot of other countries in Africa (and elsewhere), they have tremendous challenges including a population that continues to grow at slightly more than 3.2% (see World Bank) . This means that with approximately 50 million people today, by 2040, Tanzania will have nearly 100 million people - about 60,000,000 of whom will want a decent, well paying job.

35,000,000 more people will be seeking jobs. Many in already crowded urban centers like Dar Es Salaam.

One suspects the age range has a lot to do with the fact that many people live in rural villages where the primary activity is farming. Either working to help tend to crops or cattle, they may be in families where 'pay' means shelter, food, and community rather than actual wages or cash.

Broadening the definition may help both improve the statistics, as presumably more older people work, but also may enable the flow of more aid.

Youth unemployment is a huge and growing issue. Better education, greater alignment with evolving market place requirements, and opportunities to create value through small business and entrepreneurial endeavors seem critical to the viability of any healthy economy.

But it is often the case in many developing societies that employment is not based on statistics such as hours worked, or salaries/wages, or other common western terms (such as GNI, or GDP), but instead by what role you play in helping to ensure that the family unit is able to sustain its life style.

The 7 year old herder tending to a flock of cattle and goats on the side of the road near Lake Manyara knows a lot more about work than most of us from the west ever will.

His sister may be going to get water or scavenging in the bush for firewood. She understands what it means to work hard to support the family. But is she employed?

Another set of statistics I viewed recently indicated that there is 98% enrollment in school. Given the number of kids I come across herding, I often wonder whether they are counted in the official statistics. As we know, enrollment has nothing to do with attendance, just as attendance has nothing to do with literacy.

In a country where the same website claims 68% literacy, but that only 53% of 13 year olds complete primary school, it is worth asking what the statistics mean, and how this impacts the ability to raise funds by highlighting issues. It would be interesting to see any analysis about how funds raised impact these numbers.

(see https://www.worldvision.org/our-impact/country-profiles/tanzania)

I know from my walks with Sebastian - an 18 year old Maasai from nearby Mataves who is just starting Form 3 (roughly equivalent to 8th grade in the United States) that many of his friends do not follow a set sequence when it comes to going to school.

Their attendance depends on their ability to either have the money to attend a private school, or whether or not their family needs their help herding cows, tending to the fields, etc.

They may or may not be able to go to school regularly. Are they employed? Are they part of the economically inactive or active? For those outside the 'youth range' - are they counted at all or not? Do they have the opportunity for 'decent, well paying jobs'?

Many questions are raised when you start looking at the 'global' stats as published by the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and others versus national statistics, and those used by NGO's, and other philanthropies to support their cause. (ALL of US are guilty of this to varying degrees...) It is sometimes stunning to think how much money is doled out based on statistics.

Perhaps a better approach is a more blended one where the massive infrastructure set up in support of aid from the various stakeholders is adapted to a blended capital approach designed to support the development of sustainable employment opportunities. What we keep hearing is how young people (youths) and their parents want access to education and the perceived benefit it provides in terms of access to as President Kikwete said a 'decent well paying job.'

Much work needs to be done, but considering how many developing countries face similar challenges to Tanzania, adjustments are needed to ensure that the overwhelming growth in population doesn't lead to more problems and less development.

Statistics don't lie. But they don't tell the full story either.

AUTHOR BIO:

Bill Lightfoot is Managing Director, Village Inc. Africa that provides macrocredit capital and expertise to village companies situated in rural communities in Tanzania. 

The driver of Village Inc. Africa's model is working with the village companies in supporting their building of quality and affordable homes and other structures for the base of the pyramid. This drives employment, which drives economic development.

All homes use as much local labor and materials as possible, and include features that make the homes significantly healthier for the families, while also being environmentally friendlier.

Click here to visit village-inc.org for more information.