The State of Lowered Expectations

Kevin Lawlor , Chief Political Officer

When I served as a press secretary for quite a few media-savvy members of Congress, the State of the Union was always a big night where the process of governing was on display.? No matter the president, Republican and Democratic legislators alike leveraged the grandeur of the evening to send a message:? A message back home to constituents that they too were fighting the good fight for or against whatever policy agenda had just been articulated from the dais.? Or possibly a message to the president or their leadership that they were all-in on that agenda. Or, as was the case this time around, invested in the policy debates that would take priority during the coming campaign season.???

But things have shifted. Public and government affairs professionals who previously relied on annual events like the State of the Union to plan their advocacy and media strategies for the balance of the year now have far less to go by as more and more inflection points fall victim to hyper-partisanship.???

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The Purpose of and Reactions to the Event Seem to Have Changed?

The event itself seems different now.? Which is probably to be expected in the wake of “you lie,” the Tea Party, Donald Trump, and a global pandemic.? While bad behavior by members of Congress on both sides of the aisle can be traced back to as early as 1975, it has stopped being an exception to protocol and become the norm. Congress seems less inclined to leverage the content of the speech (which would be picked apart before it was even delivered) to establish a legislative agenda and more apt to use their presence as an opportunity to beat the drums of political rhetoric.? We now expect a call-and-response, outfits of matching color schemes, and interruptions followed by Capitol Police escorts.? It now has all the grandeur of a car wreck.??

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The most immediate response to President Joe Biden’s final State of the Union of his first term underlines this shift.? Pundits and party spokespeople were at the ready with commentary that either focused on the feistiness of an octogenarian or were quick to point out any verbal miscues or flubs.? Neither of which are very helpful to anyone but the cable networks hoping to extend coverage deeper into the night.? The official Republican response didn’t fare much better.? The already maligned and parodied response by Senator Britt focused less on the speech itself and more on the Republicans’ hot-button election talking points, mainly border security and crime.? Even more, the Senator’s kitchen was seemingly a better place to watch the State of the Union than the United States Capitol itself.??

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Post-speech polling was befuddling as well.? Despite the Love It/Hate it reactions offered in the immediate wake of the speech, CNN polling showed a net positive reaction of 65%.? That’s certainly high when it comes to approval polls we’ve become used to seeing over the course of the past several administrations, but it’s remarkably tepid when compared to reactions to similarly polled SOTU’s from the past 25 years.? It seems that most people were unmoved by the speech, or at the most, slightly more or less enthused depending on their predilection prior to the evening.?

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Organizations that Want to Advance Policy Agendas Face Large Obstacles?

The State of the Union traditionally served as the curtain raiser for the president’s budget priorities, and to some extent it did this year as well. But President Biden’s letter to Congress was not without accusations that Republicans were responsible for the mess we find ourselves in, from which he intends to take us out.? The Republican response was even more aggressive in blaming Biden and the Democrats for what they characterized as an unsafe America—economically and socially—without offering much in the way of potential solutions beyond unseating the President.? Who among us really believes businesses and industries can weigh into that debate and emerge with positive public policy outcomes for their stakeholders??

The past few years have provided ample examples of what can happen to businesses that try to align with one side or the other.? Even issues like transportation and infrastructure that wouldn’t appear to be partisan lightning rods have gotten drawn into the political fray. More and more, Americans are likely to support or oppose policy agendas not on the basis of their practical implications but simply because they are perceived as “Republican” or “Democrat” stances—and that makes building consensus among policymakers more challenging.?

So what is left? If the State of the Union showed us anything, it’s that the campaign has begun in earnest. We have lowered the expectations about how we can leverage what used to be key inflection points throughout the year. Organizations that have historically relied on policymakers to carry the policy water for them now must do more to push their agendas forward themselves—and look to stakeholders—particularly local stakeholders—as the primary water carriers for issues they want to make priorities.??

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The good news for businesses and industries is that recent polling shows businesses are still more trusted than government or the media. Those organizations that can remain above the political fray while creating their own inflection points to educate stakeholders on policy and issues stand a better chance of moving their agendas forward. An added benefit to this approach is that policy momentum from the ground up will go a long way to inoculate reputations against political backlash. In a way, what was old has become new again—stakeholder engagement at the community level, whether those communities be geographic, identity-based, or ideological, is no longer nice to have, but essential in today’s hyper-partisan environment.?