The State of Global Manufacturing
Hello hello and welcome back to the Recruitonomics Newsletter! This week, we covered the state of global manufacturing, which is stalling out in the U.K. and Germany, while slowing slightly in the U.S.? Plus, we continued our series on immigration by covering Canada’s impressive population growth. Read on for more!
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This Week on Recruitonomics:
The State of Global Manufacturing: US Slowing and Europe Stalled
The manufacturing industry recovered early on during the pandemic but is now seeing a severe slowdown even as services are doing well. In the first two years of the pandemic, households shifted consumption from services to goods as advanced economies were in lockdown. But about a year ago, we began to see a rotation in the other direction, which can explain the current manufacturing recession. Now, consumers are spending strongly on services, rather than goods, sending the global manufacturing industry hurtling towards recessionary territory. In the U.S., the U.K., and Germany, industrial production and new orders have slowed, which is hurting employment outcomes in the latter two countries, while labor demand in the U.S. has remained strong.?
Read the full article here.
What does this mean for recruiters??
Our tentative prediction for the foreseeable future is that the manufacturing sector in the U.K. and Germany will continue to stagnate – albeit for different reasons – while U.S. manufacturing will perform much better thanks to the substantial domestic investments that are being undertaken right now. This means manufacturing recruiters can expect to continue with recruiting challenges in the U.S.
Canada’s Path to Growth: Immigration Is the Way?
Canada’s population growth recently has been nothing short of remarkable: The country recently reached a record 40 million inhabitants, surpassing California’s population. In 2022 alone, Canada’s population grew by about 1.1 million, or almost 2.7% – the highest growth rate since 1997. How did the country manage to sustain such robust growth while other countries deal with the fallout of aging populations? A very liberal immigration policy, that’s how. The Canadian government has set unbelievable immigration goals in recent years and has made them possible by ramping up the pace at which applications are processed. These goals and systems are dedicated to both protecting the aging domestic labor force and valiant humanitarian efforts. As a result, more than 400,000 immigrants were welcomed over Canada’s borders last year and an additional 600,000 non-permanent residents, including refugees, are bolstering the workforce.
Read the full article here.
What does this mean for recruiters??
This uptick in immigration in Canada is good news for recruiters, as the country is dealing with an aging population. This strong population growth fueled by immigration will help protect recruiters from the worker shortages that many other developed economies are facing.?
Recruiting Tips:?
In today’s digital world, it can be hard to sort through the various statistics the internet throws at you. In Job advertising especially, there’s so much data that it can be hard to find the actual story behind it. How can you find the signal within the data noise of programmatic job advertising? In Tips for Using Data in Programmatic Job Advertising, Appcast data analyst Josh Previte runs through how he navigates the job advertising data and gives some tips on how you too can become a data storytelling expert.?
Coming Up From Recruitonomics:
Join Labor Economist Andrew Flowers and European Labor Economist Julius Probst, PhD on July 7, 2023 at 10am ET as they break down the latest U.S. jobs report! Register today.?
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Recently on Recruitonomics:
Poland has completely turned its labor market fortunes around by focusing on immigration. A shrinking working-age population has been impacting Poland’s economy since the 1990s. For many EU countries, labor has just begun to be cited as a limiting factor of production but Poland has been dealing with these shortages for decades now. The war in Ukraine has been a gamechanger for the Polish economy, which has seen a massive inflow of Ukrainian refugees. As described above, population outflows and low birth rates have led to a steady decline in Poland’s population since the late 1990s, from a peak of almost 39 million to under 38 million just a couple of years ago. The entire decline has now been made up for by an inflow of about 1.3 million Ukrainian refugees into the country over the last one-and-a-half years. This massive migration boost means that the Polish population increased by more than 3%. This population increase has boosted the economic outcomes and alleviated the worker shortages, helping the Polish economy become the top performing in the EU in recent months.?
Read the full article here.
The U.K. has been a popular immigration destination for decades and the tightening migration laws that came with Brexit have done little to stop it. Despite the stricter policies, immigration has picked up strongly in the United Kingdom but the composition of migrants has changed it. The entire addition to the current immigrant population in the U.K. is coming from outside of the EU. In fact, net migration from EU countries has been negative since 2020. Last year alone, some 50,000 EU citizens left the U.K. while a record of 660,000 non-EU citizens arrived. The largest increase has been the increase in the number of students coming in from abroad. And those students are not from the EU: The number of granted student visas for Indians increased by an impressive 215%, while other students are coming from China and Nigeria. Brexit has yet to change the state of U.K. immigration, just the people coming across its borders.
Read the full article here.
What Recruitonomics is Reading:
Curated by Recruitonomics summer intern Ronan McCooey
At the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking this Thursday, both Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey cited labor costs as one of the primary reasons for the stickiness of current inflation. They, along with ECB President Christine Lagarde, agreed that the global battle with high inflation is far from over, thanks in large part to the tight labor market. Non-housing services are especially affected by this. Services are labor-intensive industries and the labor market for service workers is particularly tight, so labor costs remain persistently high in these areas. This means hospitality, healthcare, food services, travel services, financial services and other service industries are still seeing high inflation. Jerome Powell does believe, however, that this will naturally slow down, as we may have already seen the peak of labor market tightness – the number of U.S. job openings is currently down 2 million from its latest peak.??
?More Data & Insights:
Thank you for reading! Stay tuned for next week's Recruitonomics Newsletter and check out Recruitonomics.com for more data-driven insights.