The State Of Gaming 2023: Our predictions compared to data.ai’s comprehensive 2022 report
What a year 2023 has been, both here at Gameram, but also for the industry as a whole. Last month, we spoke about the incredible surge in our user base over the last quarter, with the number of active monthly users reaching an astonishing 300,000. We have had a remarkable 2023, with results far beyond what we might have predicted. But what about our predictions earlier this year for what was in store for the industry as a whole? And how did our predictions compare with those made by data.ai and their State Of Mobile Gaming 2023 report earlier this year?
Our predictions
In January, we made predictions about what 2023 had in store for the games industry. We spoke about fears many experts had heading into this year given the downturn of the mobile games market (Game Central revealed that spending in the games industry was down by over 13% in 2022 compared to 2021). Our prediction back then was that this downturn was an anomaly, and that consumer spend and download figures were unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels in the near future. As we head into the winter period this year it appears we were correct in our predictions. According to Newzoo, the global games industry market is set to generate $187.7 billion in revenues in 2023, a 2.6% year-on-year increase.
We also expected VCs would be more cautious with their approach when it came to funding games heading into 2023. As a result of this, we stated that developers and publishers would continue to find more creative ways to fund their games, and that the increase in mobile phone adoption would continue heading into this year. This was backed up by the statistic that the global GDP contribution of the mobile industry is set to reach $4.9 trillion in 2025.
However, it was our prediction that new technologies, such as cloud gaming, VR and blockchain, would boost the industry in 2023. It was this prediction that was both the most pertinent in terms of where we are now, and also the most comparable when it came to predictions made by the State Of Mobile Gaming 2023 report from data.ai.
State Of Mobile Gaming 2023 report from data.ai
In a wide-ranging and comprehensive report from data.ai, formerly AppAnnie and a leading app analytics data platform, it was predicted that mobile ad spend would reach $362 billion in 2023 as the number of hours spent on mobile apps increased was expected to hit record highs globally. Users in Indonesia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and South Korea all surpassed 5 hours per day in mobile apps in 2022, with the Saudi market being the clearest example of this trend having grown by 68% over the last 4 years.
This report spoke of a new normal, pointing to the fact that downloads had surpassed the 1 billion mark and over 6 billion hours had been spent per week on mobile games globally in 2022. It stated that India was the world’s biggest mobile game market by Google Play downloads, with mobile game adoption remaining strong, especially among emerging markets. Adoption of smartphones by an expanding middle class was predicted to continue to drive growth, with gaming now more accessible than ever thanks to technological advancements and increased mobile connectivity. RPGs led the way in terms of consumer spend in 2022, totalling over $25 billion, with that trend predicted to continue into 2023. The hypercasual market, meanwhile, led the way in 2022, with year on year downloads up 8.4% to 17.5 billion in 2022.?
There were some notable differences between this report and our own predictions. The platform released 5 Mobile App Forecasts For 2023, with one prediction being that gaming consumer spend would drop to $107 billion in 2023. This forecast was based on the economic downturn making it harder to target spending ‘whales’, making it more difficult to monetize through in-app purchases. It also predicted that 14 new apps would break into the $2 billion consumer spend club, including Uma Musume Pretty Derby which was expected to become one of the fastest mobile games to ever hit this threshold. The likes of HBO Max and iQIYI were also expected to join an elite list of apps to enter the $3 billion spend bracket.
Conclusion
It is always difficult to predict how the landscape of any industry is going to change heading into a new year, with the games industry proving particularly challenging to analyse given the ups and downs of the last few years since the pandemic. Here at Gameram, we’re pleased that many of our earlier predictions appear to stack up with where we are now as we come to the end of 2023. There are also reasons to be optimistic given how similar our own predictions were with those of data.ai and their State Of Mobile Gaming 2023 report. We’ll be sure to continue to analyse industry trends as we head into 2024. We look forward to making more predictions early next year!
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