These startup founders think they can replace 5.1 million jobs. Do you believe them?

These startup founders think they can replace 5.1 million jobs. Do you believe them?

In this series, professionals attending Next:Economy share their insights on the future of work. Read the posts here, then write your own. Use #NextEconomy somewhere in the body of the post and @mention Next:Economy conference panelists when sharing. For more insight and news on the Next:Economy, sign up for the weekly newsletter here.

By 2020, the rise of artificial intelligence, robots and other critical changes to the labor market will lead to a net loss of 5.1 million jobs. While the "fourth industrial revolution" is feared by economists and labor unions alike, the startup community thinks their businesses could be the solution to keep workers employed.

At the Next:Economy Summit earlier this week in San Francisco, conversations both on and off stage revolved around the future of work and how the definition of a "job" is slowly changing. Tech leaders such as Airbnb Co-Founder Brian Chesky, Uber Regional Manager Rachel Holt, Thumbtack Founder Marco Zappacosta and many others discussed the role their disruptive platforms are playing in that very debate.

While their companies are each having a unique impact on both local and international economies, their remarks all hit on one central theme:

Our technology will create more jobs than any industrial revolution can destroy.

The future that Chesky envisions is a utopia of sorts where technology allows people to get more out of work and life. A home is the most expensive asset most people will ever own, yet most leave it unoccupied for significant periods of time over the year. Airbnb allows home owners and renters to supplement their income by sharing their space with others when they are away.

"I think there is an enormous amount of uncertainty and people worry that technology will leave them behind," said Airbnb's Chesky. "I don’t think tech needs to leave people behind. I do think that tech can partner with cities to create a better future."

While Chesky feels his platform taps into entirely new income streams that were dormant before Airbnb, Thumbtack's Zappacosta views his as creating whole new markets for labor. A marketplace that connects small business owners with individuals that need to get a variety of tasks done, Thumbtack has more than 200,000 paying professionals and millions of customers using the service. Zappacosta shared the stories of workers like Josh Downing, who earned more than $2 million in additional revenue in 2014 by marketing his moving business on Thumbtack.

For Zappacosta, that's just one example of how technology can create job opportunities for professionals who may have their work replaced by technology.

"The greatest unlocked resource that this country has is the talent and time of its professional class," Zappacosta said. "We are trying to build a platform to unlock that latent energy so we have a more vibrant economy."

Other founders — like Seth Sternberg of in-home elderly care startup Honor — feel like they are creating employment opportunities that just didn't exist before his app came along. There are 2.5 million care workers in America today, a figure that will have to double to keep up with demand for in-home care from our growing elderly population. Unlike other jobs that pay by the hour, Honor allows workers to have flexible schedules so they can have multiple jobs and balance responsibilities at home. Providing solutions like these that give workers more control over their schedule will be imperative to getting the most out of the economy, Sternberg said.

On stage at Next:Economy with Honor co-founder Seth Sternberg and Head of Care Phaedra Ellis-Lamkins

"We are using technology in a way that creates good jobs for these people," Sternberg said. "We are turning something that has been very ad hoc work into something that is more structured at the same time that we are seeing massive growth in the industry."

Then there are the founders who are trying to create work out of activities that some would argue isn't work at all. Josephine is a platform that allows in-home cooks to connect with people in their neighborhood who want to order and pick up meals directly from their home. Before interviewing co-founder Matt Jorgensen at the conference, I caught up with Krystle Sims-Cameron, a social media strategist who lives in Oakland. Originally from New Orleans, Sims-Cameron has always enjoyed making Louisiana classics like gumbo for her neighbors. With Josephine, she can do that while also supplementing her income.

Josephine recently ran into regulatory issues in the Oakland market, but Jorgensen tells me he hopes to have the operation back up and running soon.

"I have a regular 9-to-5 job, but I told my husband I missed cooking for people," Sims-Cameron said. "Now I could make money while feeding my neighbors. When I left my job last year, I always knew that if I had a dry month and no contracts coming in, I could do more meals for Josephine that week and I would be OK. That flexibility gave me the confidence to pursue other aspects of my career."

It's still too soon to tell if the job opportunities created from the founders at Next:Economy and beyond will be enough to replace 5.1 million jobs by 2020. Two-thirds of the projected loss of jobs will likely come from office and administrative sectors after smart machines take over more routine tasks. Will those workers then be able to seamlessly transition to renting their home on Airbnb, working for the elderly on Honor and cooking meals for their neighbors on Josephine? The tech community seems convinced that they can, but let me know what you think in the comments below.

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It's a big question that everyone should be asking. Where AI is different to the industrial revolutions of machines and automation is that this time it will automate our most treasured ability: intelligence. We have very little to fall back on, if human intelligence loses its value. There is one exception: one value we will always have [and should never give to AI] is human emotions. You'll like this: AI Predictions: https://goo.gl/F0mNVx from Innovation Future Specialist

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Patty Brown

Human Founder studiO

8 年

There are jobs and then there are jobs. People need jobs that can sustain their life now and in the future. Those jobs are disappearing along with higher wages and benefits. In order for the US to get its mojo back it is imperative to have a strong middle class encompassing more Americans. That is not happening. It CAN happen. Putting people to work is a mindset. It is putting people over profit for short term gains. There is a reason we are here and it is not seeing how many people we can drop into poverty. Henry Ford paid people more so they could afford his cars. It was a win/win. There are ground breaking industries that could employ millions...do we want it?? I hope so!

Pete Chatziplis

Private Equity Advisor - Front Office Corp Fin, M&A, Biz Dev, Strategic Alignment Orientation

8 年

Caroline, to answer your question we first have to define what's a job. The definition has changed over the ages; let's say that broadly it's something that provides a living. If you look at it like that; everybody (or most of us...) got to have a job (even the most ideal economies like Switzerland have refused for the time being, a minimum pay, irrespective of waht somebody does). If you think about it humans do a lot of things; some are paid some are not. What is paid has changed over the ages. Taking care of elders as Honor does was not a job long time ago (as it was supposed to be taken care by the extended family, or there were not so many elders). Working in companies that don't make a monetary profit (startups) but maybe produce in other ways, was not a job in the past. Now it is. If tomorrow Amazon or Uber start a competitive service to Honor or to Josephine then I'm sure these freelancers will go out of business. So we have to think more broadly about future and jobs. Maybe it's useful to reference Alvin Toffler's work here

Mahmood Mustafa

Network Cloud Engineer | Azure & AWS Specialist

8 年
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Colette Scarpello

Leading provider of interactive and experiential curriculum for skilled technician training

8 年

Can people make enough money to survive?

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