Stableford Market Commentary - August 2023
Have soft-landing expectations peaked?
Equities fell 4.9% at the August low before rebounding to close down 1.9% for the month. It seems that expectations finally got so high that the market was unable to meet them. This is a significant change of sentiment. Since the March bank bailout expectations have been that the Fed would pause soon and engineer a soft–landing for the economy. This allowed valuations to expand and stocks to rise despite lower earnings expectations.??
However, someone threw a wrench in the gears during August.
Even Nvidia—poster child for AI—wasn’t able to meet earnings expectations despite blowout second quarter numbers beyond even the highest estimates. Perhaps it is a sign that the winds are changing, we’ll see. The August Market Commentary will help explain what's going on.
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This market commentary was written and produced by Stableford Capital, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Founder / CEO at Stableford Capital
1 年Despite recent optimism about a soft landing for the economy, key recession indicators tracked by the National Bureau of Economic Research are showing increasing weakness. Let’s not get too caught up in wishful thinking; verdict is still out .