Stability or Chaos? A Game Theory Analysis of the Niger Coup's Potential Outcomes.

"In a coup, a country's military, often in partnership with the intelligence services, seizes the apparatus of the state and substitutes its own choice of leaders." - Ruchir Sharma

Mohamed Bazoum, the current President of Niger Republic, succeeded Mahamadou Issoufou as the President of Niger. While Mahamadou Issoufou served as the president of Niger from April 7, 2011, until April 2, 2021. After completing two terms in office, he did not seek re-election in the 2020 presidential election, and Mohamed Bazoum, his former interior minister and the candidate of the ruling party, won the election.

Following his victory, Mohamed Bazoum was inaugurated as the President of Niger on April 2, 2021, marking the peaceful transfer of power from one democratically elected leader to another in the country.

However, Niger Republic has experienced political instability and several coup attempts throughout its history as an independent nation. Here is an overview of the evolution of coup attempts in Niger:

1. 1964: First Coup Attempt - Just four years after gaining independence from France, Niger witnessed its first coup attempt in 1964. The attempt was led by a group of military officers who sought to overthrow the government. However, the coup was unsuccessful, and President Hamani Diori's government remained in power.

2. 1974: Successful Military Coup - In 1974, Niger faced its first successful military coup. Colonel Seyni Kountché led the military junta that ousted President Diori and established military rule. Kountché ruled the country until his death in 1987.

3. 1996: Failed Coup Attempt - Niger experienced another coup attempt in 1996. President Mahamane Ousmane's government survived the attempt, which was suppressed by loyalist forces.

4. 1999: Successful Military Coup - In 1999, Niger faced another successful military coup. Colonel Ibrahim Baré Ma?nassara led the coup that overthrew President Ousmane's government. Ma?nassara assumed power but was assassinated in 1999, leading to further political instability.

5. 2010: Failed Coup Attempt - Niger witnessed another coup attempt in 2010 when President Mamadou Tandja tried to extend his rule beyond the constitutional limits. The attempt was unsuccessful, and Tandja was ousted from power.

6. 2011: Successful Military Coup - In 2011, a military junta led by Salou Djibo staged a successful coup against the transitional government following Tandja's ouster. The junta promised to restore civilian rule, leading to elections and a return to democracy.

The political landscape in Niger remains fluid, and coups and attempted coups can be influenced by various factors, including political grievances, economic challenges, and power struggles within the military and political elites.

In a recent coup attempt today, Niger has recently experienced an attempted coup, causing concern among its West African neighbors, particularly Nigeria, whose President Bola Tinubu heads the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

According to security sources cited by Reuters News, soldiers have blocked access to the Niger presidential palace.

President Mohamed Bozoum of Niger is reportedly inside the palace. A statement that was later deleted from the government's Facebook page mentioned that Mr. Bozoum and his family were safe.

The government has acknowledged the coup attempt, characterizing it as an anti-Republican movement that failed to garner the support of the National Armed Forces and the National Guard.

In response to the coup attempt, the army and the National Guard have declared their readiness to take action against the elements of the presidential guard involved in the incident.

In this article, we will deploy game theory theoretical framework to analyse the crisis. Analyzing the situation using Game Theory can help us understand the various players' incentives and possible courses of action. It's important to note that the situation is complex, and real-world events may involve additional factors and uncertainties that go beyond the simplified framework provided by Game Theory.

Game Theory is a mathematical tool used to study decision-making and strategic interactions among different actors (players) in a given situation. In this case, the players involved are:

1. The coup plotters: The group attempting to overthrow the government.

2. The government forces: The National Armed Forces and the National Guard, loyal to President Mohamed Bozoum.

3. President Mohamed Bozoum and his family: The current leadership under attack.

Let's consider the following aspects of the situation within the framework of Game Theory:

1. Payoffs: The outcomes that each player aims to achieve in the situation. The payoffs could be staying in power for President Bozoum, successfully executing the coup for the plotters, and maintaining stability for the government forces.

2. Strategies: The actions that each player can take to achieve their respective payoffs. This could include using military force, negotiation, or seeking support from regional allies like ECOWAS.

3. Information: The available knowledge and information that influence decision-making. This includes knowing the current state of affairs, the strength of each player's position, and the potential reactions of other regional actors.

4. Nash Equilibrium: A stable state where no player has an incentive to change their strategy unilaterally. It represents a situation where each player's strategy is the best response to the strategies chosen by others.

Given the information provided, we can outline the following observations within the Game Theory framework:

1. President Bozoum's Position: He and his family are inside the presidential palace, indicating that the coup attempt has not succeeded in capturing or removing him from power. From a Game Theory perspective, he might have a strong incentive to defend his position and stay in power.

2. Coup Plotters: The coup attempt has failed to obtain the support of the National Armed Forces and the National Guard. This suggests that they might face resistance and challenges in executing their plans successfully.

3. Government Forces: The army and the National Guard remain loyal to the government, indicating that they are backing the current leadership. They might be willing to use force to protect President Bozoum and maintain stability.

4. Regional Dynamics: Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu heads ECOWAS, and the attempted coup in Niger raises concerns among its West African neighbors. ECOWAS might play a role in mediating the situation and potentially applying pressure on the coup plotters to abandon their efforts.

For better understanding, we will be assigning some hypothetical payoff values to each player based on their potential outcomes in the situation. For simplicity, we will use positive integers to represent relative payoffs. Higher values indicate more favorable outcomes for the respective player. Keep in mind that these values are purely illustrative and not based on any real-world data.

Let's assume the following payoff matrix for the players:

- Coup Plotters (CP)

- Government Forces (GF)

- President Bozoum and his Family (PB)

Payoff Matrix:

CP?????GF?????PB

CP????-5?????8?????0

GF?????7?????4?????0

PB?????10????-3?????6

Explanation of the Payoff Matrix:

- If the coup plotters (CP) successfully execute the coup and take over the government, they perceive this as a significant victory, giving them a payoff of 8. However, if they fail in their attempt, they might face severe repercussions and, therefore, receive a negative payoff of -5.

- The government forces (GF) might get a moderate payoff of 4 if they successfully suppress the coup attempt, thereby maintaining stability. However, if they fail to protect the President and the government, they could receive a negative payoff of -3 due to the loss of power and potential instability.

- President Bozoum and his family (PB) have the highest payoff of 6 if they manage to stay in power and retain control over the government. However, if the coup plotters succeed in overthrowing him, his payoff becomes 0, signifying the loss of power.

Note that in a real-world scenario, the actual payoffs and motivations of the players involved might be more nuanced and complex. Additionally, the payoff values can be influenced by various factors such as international support, public sentiment, and the actions of other regional actors like ECOWAS.

If you are familiar with game theory, you will be tempted to ask if there is a Nash Equilibrium to this game? Well, let us find out and see.

Firstly, what is a nash equilibrium?

A Nash equilibrium is a concept in game theory that represents a stable state in a strategic interaction where no player has an incentive to change their strategy unilaterally. In other words, it is a situation where each player is choosing the best response to the strategies chosen by others, and no player can improve their payoff by switching to a different strategy while the other players keep their strategies unchanged.

Therefore, to determine if there is a Nash equilibrium in this game, we need to check if there is a combination of strategies for each player where no player can improve their payoff by unilaterally changing their strategy while the other players keep their strategies unchanged.

Let's reexamine the payoff matrix:

CP?????GF?????PB

CP????-5?????8?????0

GF?????7?????4?????0

PB?????10????-3?????6

A Nash equilibrium would require each player to be choosing the best response strategy given the strategies chosen by others. In other words, no player should have an incentive to change their strategy if they know the strategies chosen by the other players.

Let's analyze each player's potential best responses:

1. Coup Plotters (CP):

??- If the Government Forces (GF) choose their strategy as "GF" (8 payoff), CP's best response is to choose "CP" (7 payoff) since 7 is higher than -5.

??- If President Bozoum (PB) chooses his strategy as "PB" (0 payoff), CP's best response is to choose "CP" (10 payoff) since 10 is higher than 0.

2. Government Forces (GF):

??- If the Coup Plotters (CP) choose their strategy as "CP" (7 payoff), GF's best response is to choose "GF" (8 payoff) since 8 is higher than 4.

??- If President Bozoum (PB) chooses his strategy as "PB" (0 payoff), GF's best response is to choose "GF" (4 payoff) since 4 is higher than -3.

3. President Bozoum (PB):

??- If the Coup Plotters (CP) choose their strategy as "CP" (10 payoff), PB's best response is to choose "PB" (0 payoff) since 0 is higher than -5.

??- If the Government Forces (GF) choose their strategy as "GF" (4 payoff), PB's best response is to choose "PB" (6 payoff) since 6 is higher than 0.

Now, let's examine each player's potential choices:

- If CP chooses "CP," GF best responds with "GF," and PB best responds with "PB."

- If CP chooses "GF," GF best responds with "GF," and PB best responds with "PB."

- If CP chooses "PB," GF best responds with "GF," and PB best responds with "PB."

There are no unilateral deviations that any player can make to improve their payoff. In all cases, each player's best response is to stick with their chosen strategy. Therefore, we have a Nash equilibrium in this game:

Nash Equilibrium:

- CP: Any strategy (CP, GF, or PB)

- GF: GF

- PB: PB

Let us further break this down for simplicity sake:

- The Coup Plotters (CP) can choose any strategy (CP, GF, or PB) since none of their choices will result in a higher payoff than what they already have. If they choose CP (coup attempt) or GF (give up on the coup), they will get a payoff of -5 or 8, respectively. If they choose PB (support President Bozoum), they will get a payoff of 0.

- The Government Forces (GF) should choose "GF" (defend the government) to get the highest payoff of 8. If they choose CP (support the coup) or PB (abandon the government), they will get payoffs of 7 or 4, respectively.

- President Bozoum (PB) should choose "PB" (stay in power) to get the highest payoff of 6. If he chooses CP (support the coup) or GF (give up power), he will get payoffs of 10 or -3, respectively.

Explanation of the Assigned Values:

- A positive payoff represents a desirable outcome for the player.

- A negative payoff represents an undesirable outcome for the player.

- A higher positive payoff is preferable to a lower positive payoff.

- A less negative (or higher) negative payoff is preferable to a more negative (or lower) negative payoff.

In the context of this simplified Nash equilibrium:

- The Coup Plotters have the incentive to choose either GF (give up on the coup) or CP (attempt the coup), as both actions result in better outcomes for them compared to supporting President Bozoum (PB) since it gives them a payoff of 8 and -5, respectively. However, they will stick to their original strategy (represented as CP) because changing to GF or PB would not improve their payoff.

- The Government Forces have a clear incentive to choose "GF" (defend the government) as it gives them the highest payoff of 8. Choosing CP (supporting the coup) or PB (abandoning the government) would result in lower payoffs of 7 or 4, respectively.

- President Bozoum has the strongest incentive to choose "PB" (stay in power) since it gives him the highest payoff of 6. Choosing CP (supporting the coup) would result in a payoff of 10, which is undesirable for him, and choosing GF (giving up power) would result in a payoff of -3, which is even worse.

In summary, the Nash equilibrium in this simplified game is where the Coup Plotters stick to their original strategy, the Government Forces defend the government, and President Bozoum stays in power. No player can improve their situation by unilaterally changing their strategy, and each player is making the best decision given the choices of the others.

So finally, this game looks like there is no winner after all. Are we sure to predict chaos from this analysis?

In the real world, the situation following an attempted coup can be highly complex and unpredictable, and it may lead to various outcomes. While the analysis using Game Theory suggests the existence of a Nash equilibrium, it is essential to recognize that real-world events are influenced by numerous factors beyond the simplified model.

The attempted coup in Niger and its potential consequences can depend on various variables, including:

1. Government Response: How the current government and its loyal forces respond to the coup attempt will play a crucial role. If they can quickly and decisively suppress the coup, it may lead to a restoration of stability. However, if the government faces internal divisions or the coup attempt gains momentum, the situation could escalate.

2. Support from Other Actors: The response of regional organizations like ECOWAS and international players can also have a significant impact. If ECOWAS and neighboring countries rally in support of the legitimate government, it may bolster President Bozoum's position and discourage the coup plotters. On the other hand, lack of support or diplomatic inaction could embolden the coup plotters.

3. Military Strength: The strength and loyalty of the military and security forces on both sides will be critical. If the government forces remain united and committed to defending the legitimate government, they may deter further coup attempts. Conversely, if the coup plotters have strong support within the military, it could lead to a prolonged conflict.

4. Public Sentiment: The support of the general population can also sway the outcome. If the majority of the population supports the government and opposes the coup, it may act as a deterrent for future attempts. However, if there are significant grievances and discontent, it could fuel instability and protests.

5. Regional and Ethnic Dynamics: Niger, like many African countries, has diverse ethnic and regional groups. Political instability can exacerbate existing tensions, leading to further violence or even the potential for secessionist movements.

6. International Intervention: In extreme cases of prolonged instability, there may be a possibility of international intervention, such as peacekeeping missions or diplomatic efforts to mediate the conflict.

Given these complex dynamics, it is challenging to predict with certainty how the situation will unfold. While Game Theory can provide a theoretical framework for analyzing strategic interactions, real-world events often defy simple models due to their multifaceted nature.

It's important to remember that the well-being of the people of Niger is of utmost concern, and efforts should be focused on promoting peace, stability, and democratic processes in the country to avoid further escalation into chaos. Therefore, we call on the African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to take strategic and intentional actions to prevent bloodshed and the possibility of yet another civil war in the region.