Sri Lanka: Opposition Gains Ground: The Changing Dynamics of Sri Lanka’s 2024 Election

• Majority of politicians, including former SLPP leaders, suffer deeply negative ratings, with public frustration over corruption, economic mismanagement, and lack of accountability driving voters towards alternative parties like the NPP/JVP and SJB
• President Anura Dissanayake will attempt to wrestle control of the parliament by increasing this party's seats from just three now in bid to consolidate power and avoid policy paralysis
• In our view, NPP's Harini Amarasuriya and SJB's Premadasa are the top candidates for prime ministerial position, with Harini slightly in the lead.

The upcoming parliamentary election is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal in recent history, with major political shifts following the economic crisis of 2022. As the country grapples with political instability, mounting economic challenges, and an increasingly disillusioned electorate, the outcome of this election could set the tone for Sri Lanka's future. As Sri Lanka gears up for its parliamentary elections on Nov 14, 2024, the political atmosphere is charged with anticipation. This election will be the first parliamentary vote following the unprecedented economic crisis of 2022, which led to widespread protests, the fall of the Rajapaksa dynasty, and the reshaping of Sri Lanka's political establishment. While the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) led by Sajith Premadasa would look to secure the most seats in parliament as it eats into the share of the Rajapaksa vote base, President Anura Dissanayake will seek to consolidate power in a bid to be able to pass reforms and deliver on election promises.

Parliamentary Election Process

Sri Lanka's parliamentary elections operate under a unicameral system, with the parliament consisting of 225 members. Of these, 196 members are elected through a proportional representation system from multi-member constituencies, ensuring broad political representation. The remaining 29 seats are distributed via a national list, based on each party's share of votes. This system allows for a diverse representation of the country's multi-ethnic and multi-religious population, including Sinhalese, Tamils, and Muslims.

To form a government, a party or coalition must secure a simple majority of 113 seats. If no party achieves this, coalitions are typically formed. The leader of the majority party becomes the Prime Minister, while the President retains certain executive powers, although this may change if current reforms proposed by the National People's Power (NPP) succeed.

Political Landscape and Key Parties

Sri Lanka's political landscape has traditionally been dominated by two major forces: the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), with newer formations like the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) rising in prominence in recent years. However, the collapse of the SLPP-led government following the 2022 economic crisis has left room for opposition parties like the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the National People's Power (NPP)/Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) to capitalize on the growing public discontent.

• Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB): The SJB, led by Sajith Premadasa, has positioned itself as the primary opposition party, with a focus on social welfare and reform. Premadasa, the party's presidential candidate, faces the challenge of uniting the broad coalition of voters disillusioned with the SLPP but hesitant to embrace more radical alternatives. SJB secured 54 out of 225 seats in parliament during the 2020 elections.
• National People's Power (NPP)/Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP): The NPP/JVP, under the leadership of now President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, represents a leftist platform focusing on anti-corruption, state-led development, and a rejection of neoliberal policies. The party has gained significant traction among younger voters and those seeking an alternative to the mainstream political establishment. The NPP/JVP was formed by uniting the erstwhile JVP with 20 other smaller parties. In the 2020 parliamentary elections, the party secured only three seats.
• Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP): The SLPP, despite the setbacks it faced after the economic collapse, remains a significant political force. President Ranil Wickremesinghe, although technically a member of the UNP, enjoys considerable support from the SLPP's voter base, illustrating the complexities of Sri Lanka's political alliances. SLPP secured 98 seats during the last election.
• United National Party (UNP): Once the dominant party in Sri Lankan politics, the UNP under Wickremesinghe has struggled to regain its footing. However, Wickremesinghe's ability to maintain the presidency through SLPP support means the UNP is still a player in the upcoming election. Only Wickremesinghe had been able to retain his seat, while the UNP lost all its former seats in parliament during the 2020 election.

Recent Events Shaping the Election

Several key events in the lead-up to the 2024 election have shaped the political climate:

• Economic Crisis and Public Outrage: The 2022 economic crisis, marked by skyrocketing inflation, fuel shortages, and widespread protests, led to the ousting of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. This crisis has left the political establishment, particularly the Rajapaksa family and the SLPP, in disarray. Public trust in established political figures has plummeted, creating space for opposition parties to grow.

Wickremesinghe's Interim Presidency: Following the departure of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Wickremesinghe assumed the presidency with the backing of the SLPP. His administration focused on stabilizing the economy, securing international aid, and implementing difficult fiscal reforms. However, Wickremesinghe's alignment with the SLPP has alienated sections of the public, particularly the middle and lower classes, who bore the brunt of austerity measures.

Historical Context: Cycle of Political Volatility

Sri Lanka's post-independence history has been characterised by cycles of political volatility, with periods of relative stability punctuated by conflict, economic crises, and social unrest. The civil war that ended in 2009 left deep scars on the political landscape, with ethnic tensions between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority continuing to influence electoral dynamics.

The dominance of the Rajapaksa family in the post-war period brought with it economic growth, but also accusations of corruption, nepotism, and authoritarianism. Their downfall in 2022 following the economic crisis was emblematic of the volatile nature of Sri Lankan politics, where public sentiment can shift rapidly based on the prevailing economic and social conditions.

Opinion Polls

The latest opinion polls from the Institute for Health Policy (IHP) SLOTS MRP model (as of August 2024) reveal an intriguing political landscape as voters head to the polls. The SJB and NPP/JVP are in a close race, with 29% and 28% of voter support, respectively. While support for both parties dipped slightly in August compared to July, these changes remain within the margin of error.

Interestingly, the SLPP, despite being associated with the disastrous economic crisis of 2022, still commands 19% of voter support in a general election context. SLOTS polling director Dr. Ravi Rannan-Eliya noted that this apparent resilience of the SLPP stems from a significant portion of its voter base liking Ranil Wickremesinghe, even if they do not back him to be the president.

The UNP remains weak, with only 9% of voter support, while the Tamil National Alliance (ITAK) holds steady at 4%. It is also important to note that these figures reflect general election voting intentions rather than presidential preferences, and future polling could show shifts based on candidate performances.

Potential Scenarios and Outcomes

As the election draws closer, several potential outcomes could emerge:

• SJB Victory with Premadasa as PM (35%): If Sajith Premadasa can consolidate his support base and attract swing voters disillusioned with both the SLPP and the radical rhetoric of the NPP/JVP, he could secure a first-round victory. A Premadasa's premiership would likely prioritise social welfare programs, infrastructure development, and a return to more centrist policies. However, he would face the challenge of governing in a deeply divided political environment.
• NPP/JVP Surge with Harini Amarasuriya as PM (40%): The NPP/JVP has tapped into the frustrations of younger voters and those seeking systemic change. If President Anura Dissanayake can galvanize this base and present a credible platform for governance, he could pose a serious threat to both Premadasa and the SLPP and UNP. However, the party's far-left stance may alienate moderate voters, making a coalition or second-round vote more likely. It is worth noting that, now, having secured the presidential race, Anura would look to consolidate his power by attempting to get a majority in the parliament. Another vital point that lends credence to our view that the NPP/JVP alliance may secure the largest vote share in the parliamentary elections is the rising public opinion of Harini Amarasuriya of the NPP. She has been appointed PM under the current president and holds several portfolios at present.
• Divided Government (25%): Another possible scenario is a fragmented outcome, where no candidate secures a decisive victory in the first round, leading to complex coalition-building. In this scenario, the power dynamics between the presidency, parliament, and regional interests would shape the policy agenda for years to come.

Sri Lanka's 2024 parliamentary election is shaping up to be a watershed moment in the country's political history. With the traditional power structures weakened and public trust in politicians at a historic low, the election could usher in significant political realignments. While opinion polls suggest a tight race between the SJB and NPP/JVP, the resilience of the SLPP and the complexities of Sri Lanka's electoral system mean that the outcome remains uncertain. Voter turnout, the second-preference voting system, and each candidate's ability to address the public's concerns will ultimately determine the course Sri Lanka takes as it emerges from a period of deep crisis.