Spurious detail, false certainty - we need to get more comfortable with "just enough"

I’m heading to Scotland near the start of December for my Mum’s birthday. You’re responsible for giving me a budget and deadline for getting there.

Ask me how I’m going to get there.

Well, thanks for asking. I expect I’ll jump on the M1 and then the M6 Toll and M6 before it turns into the M74. I’ll then probably briefly join the M8 before getting onto the M77/A77 that takes me to my home town. I can usually do that on a tank and a half of petrol - so it should take 8 hours and around ￡80 in petrol. My husband and I will probably take turns at driving. We’ll take a couple of quick breaks along the way.?

Anyone who takes a trip like this with any sort of regularity knows that this is not the reality of a long car journey.

First - I’ve given you a high level plan only. I haven’t covered junctions and slip-roads, or specific service stations I’ll stop at. I haven’t mentioned my route to the M1, or how I know my home town so well I’ll take a load of local short-cuts to avoid the most painfully mistimed traffic lights. That’s not a useful level of detail for someone who wants a cost and duration to put in a spreadsheet. Don’t ask me for that - there isn’t anything you can do with it, it just gives you the illusion of false certainty.

Second - I’ve described the happy path, where nothing really goes wrong. But we know that traffic jams and accidents happen. We know that December is winter, and winter weather can make driving conditions unpredictable - I might have to drive much more slowly than I’ve suggested (and so wouldn’t get reach my destination when anticipated). I’ll have kids in the car - one of whom gets travel sick - so my pitstops might need to be much more often (and messier) than I’d like. If in advance you need a reliable estimate for the time it’ll take me, then either allow me to give you a range or an estimated worse case ETA. If, for instance, my mum is putting a roast dinner in the oven, then she won't want to rely in my early forecast, she'll want me to call when I think I'm two hours away, and update her if we get caught in a snarl-up. Surely that's a better approach?

Third - I’ve given you what is my preferred route in good traffic. Referring back to my high level plan, I can tell you that if I when I get near I see Glasgow’s rush hour is picking up earlier than I expected, then I’ll go on the A71 and pick across the countryside, skipping the M8 and M77 entirely. If I’d given you a huge level of detail, then one significant change early in my journey would mean I’d have to replan all the other details, despite knowing that it will almost certainly change again - probably multiple times - during my journey. Is it really worth that much rework?

As someone responsible for budget and deadline, you shouldn’t be asking me to give you a granular level of detail - you should instead want a way of gauging progress on the journey, and an update on time/petrol variance against forecast. In advance you might want to know I’m flexible and responsive to the conditions: if I can avoid it, I won’t choose the route with the long accident-related delay. You should want to make sure I’m equipping myself with the data I need to make such decisions. You might want to remind me to take a coat, just in case.

Sometimes it feels to me like service transformation programme requirements are like street-level journey planning of an 8 hour journey. Pointless, impossible, wrong from the start. I can do it, sure - but I probably would already have reached my destination in the time it takes me to finish the planning. What you really want to know is how well I know these roads. Or do I have the data I need to know traffic is slowing ahead of me early enough to pivot? Do have a blanket, some food and a bottle of water in the car. And am I safe driver??

Why waste your time and mine with false certainty and spurious accuracy? Or worse - why get in the way of achieving our outcomes by expecting me to keep to the original routes that no longer make sense, simply for the sake of keeping to plan.

It's enough to understand what you’re trying to achieve. How you’re going to measure progress towards it. Where your biggest risks lie and how you expect to respond to them. What might trigger a significant rethink - when appropriate points for a review might be - and what might drive a decision to abandon the trip entirely. What contingencies do you need to have in place. How you’ll keep track of estimated time, cost and opportunity costs of the high level plan. How you can keep an eye on the key metrics - how much room there is to maneouvre if one goes off course. What capabilities are essential and desirable. What - beyond time, cost and physical location - do you actually care about?

We all need to get comfortable with just enough detail, just enough accuracy, to make the decisions we need to make now - and be prepared to defer decisions if they're better made on the journey.