This is Not Spring Selling As We Know It

My jasmine is all a rush of pungent fragrance, the frangipani leaves are just starting to push through and the jacarandas are in spectacular full bloom! Yes, all of natures signs are there that spring is in full swing but the expected boost to new listing numbers that traditionally accompanies the “Spring Selling Season” are nowhere to be seen … not in Brisbane anyway!

While other states have seen an increase in new listings, Brisbane not only had a 15.6% lower number of new listings in September vs September 2022, but it even had 5.5% less new listings in September than in August which very much bucks the traditional trend. Click here for the complete story on new listing numbers from Ray White Data Analyst William Clark.

Distressed Sales are Down, Not Up

For those experts that had predicted a strong lift in distressed sales brought on by the home owners on fixed rate loans falling off the “mortgage cliff” once their home loans defaulted to much higher variable rates, the opposite seems to be occurring. Rather than rising, distressed sales appear to be on the decline. I think that classifies as a “good news” story really.

Price Growth Continues

But as we have consistently seen over the last 5 years, low new listing numbers equals median price growth. Brisbane saw another boost of 1.3% to the median price in September bringing the year to a total of 5% growth and 6.5% for houses in particular. Not quite the lofty heights seen during the covid boom by any stretch but buyers at that time were carried along a wave of record low interest rates.

The large volume of buyers that we have seen in the last few weeks (e.g. 38 groups yesterday to the first open house of 18 Eversden Street Kenmore, 49 groups to 28 Binyara Street Chapel Hill last Saturday and 52 groups to 74 Gilruth Road Kenmore the week before) are clearly feeling confident enough to buy a house and are somewhat concerned that prices may get away from them in the future if they don’t buy now but there is still very much a sense of mild anxiety that the stabilisation of interest rates could be temporary.

Many is the conversation where buyers have been honest about the size of their pre approval only to state that they don’t want to spend it all. They want a buffer to support them in the event that things go pear shaped. And its that same anxiety that is seeing buyers take longer to make a decision to submit an offer and / or buyers that do submit one just to make sure they don’t miss out but are not entirely committed to the purchase and often retract the offer just as quickly as they made it.

Growth in Off Market Selling

Interestingly amidst all of the anxiety we have noticed significant growth in the number of buyers asking about off-market opportunities. I make no secret that I disagree with off-market selling (i.e. where an agent does not promote a property across realestate.com.au etc., but selects a handful of buyers from their database to show it to). Sellers will never know how many thousands of $$$ they missed out on by not harnessing the power of competition and so many mildly anxious but increasingly frustrated buyers who would like their Saturdays back miss out on their potential dream home. So I figured if so many people were asking then the number of properties being presented in that manner surely must be on the rise so I did a little research and I was equally shocked and disappointed by what I saw … just as an example, of the 64 houses sold in Kenmore in the 6 months to 30th September, 8 of them were off-market. 8!!!! As in 1 in every 8 was not made available to the general buying public. If I was a buyer, that would really upset me … just saying.

Interstate Buyers are Making a Comeback

Another interesting dynamic of the current market, and this is based purely on personal experience as I haven’t come across stats on this yet, is a decided increase in enquiry from interstate buyers. Interstate buyers were such a driving force during Covid but have dropped away dramatically since but the last few months has started to see more and more requests for Facetime inspections or private inspections for buyers who are here for a limited time to buy their new home. With the 2032 Olympics getting closer every day, the expectation is that this and an increase in immigration is what will supercharge our local market.

Final Thoughts

So to answer the question that potential sellers have been increasingly asking, is it a good time to sell? Yes it is. Should you wait until next year? At this point there is nothing to suggest that you shouldn’t if that suits you better. I’m still fighting with Fedex about the location of the crystal ball I ordered so I still can’t predict the future with certainty but in my educated opinion I don’t see any dramatic changes in the real estate landscape on the horizon. For those planning on selling this year though, the school holidays start on 9th December and it is from this weekend onward that we traditionally see buyer numbers plummet. The focus is then on Christmas shopping and not property shopping. If you want to sell this year I recommend getting onto the market no later than the last weekend in November … not to put too fine a point on it but that gives you 48 days!

And just coming back to my opening comments about gardens coming back to life … for those planning to sell next year, make a mental note to give some thought to what plants are in your garden and when they look their best. A tree at the peak of its finery can add significantly to the appeal of your photos which converts to increased footfall through your open houses and of course, more competition equals more $$$. E.g. Crepe Myrtle and Frangipanis look like dead sticks during winter but within the next month they will look spectacular. Just check out the18 Eversden Street below … the jacaranda ensures that the photo definitely catches your eye.