The Spengler Algorithm-To Understand America and its place in the world 2019...read The Spengler Algorithm, a novel in the tradition of Stephen King.

 The Spengler Algorithm

By John Kellmayer

Prologue One

Munich, Germany…January 30, 1933

Is there a logic of history? Is there, beyond all the casual and incalculable elements of the separate elements of the separate events, something that we may call a metaphysical structure of historic humanity, something that is essentially independent of the outward forms—social, spiritual, and political—which we see so clearly? Are not these actualities indeed secondary or derived from that something? Does world-history present to the seeing eye certain grand traits, again and again, with sufficient constancy to justify certain conclusions? And if so, what are the limits to which reasoning from such premises may be pushed?”

-The Decline of the West

Oswald Spengler, 1918–1922

Otto Krieger was twenty-nine years old when, on January 30, 1933, he went to work as a research assistant for Oswald Spengler, the great German philosopher of history. The day that Krieger joined Spengler’s small staff in Munich was momentous for Germany, for it was also the day that Adolph Hitler was appointed chancellor by President Paul von Hindenburg. Krieger would become one of Spengler’s most dedicated students, emigrating to America in 1939 following the invasion of Poland. Krieger attended Columbia University, where he earned a Ph.D. in history.

Prologue Two

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania…December 1964

Warren Krieger, the son of Otto Krieger, had a reputation as a brilliant but eccentric scholar. It was near the end of the fall semester at the University of Pennsylvania as he addressed the students in his graduate world history seminar.

“As the year 1964 draws to a close, think of the historical and cultural milestones that have occurred. The Warren Commission determined that Oswald acted alone in killing the president. We’ve seen President Johnson complete what would have been JFK’s final year in office, as well as the beginning of Johnson’s War on Poverty and the creation of federal programs such as Medicare.

“Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which gave President Johnson authority to conduct combat actions in Vietnam. Khrushchev fell from power, replaced by Leonid Brezhnev. Three civil rights workers were murdered in Mississippi during what the press have called the ‘Freedom Summer.’ Riots broke out in Harlem and other US cities, and the 24th Amendment was adopted, promoting fair voting practices. We’ve seen the first lung transplant, Cassius Clay defeated Sonny Liston to win the heavyweight championship, and Mariner IV flew by Mars, transmitting pictures of the planet’s surface back to Earth. I ask you, what do all these historical milestones mean? What, in fact, does the year 1964 itself mean?”

No one responded.

“I suggest that in the long run, these milestones may mean very little. I believe, as did Spengler, that history is cyclical, not linear, that the histories of what Spengler referred to as the high cultures—Indian, Babylonian, Egyptian, Chinese, Mayan-Aztec, Arabian, Classical Greece and Rome, and our own Western European—follow similar patterns, each lasting about one thousand years, with all aspects of that culture—art, politics, and science—sharing underlying principles that differ from culture to culture.

“In Spengler’s classic work, Decline of the West, he explained that a high culture is organic, following a life pattern that he compared with the cycle of the four seasons. Spring is the time of the origin of its basic principles. Summer is the time when the culture reaches its greatest accomplishments, when the culture flourishes, when all aspects of that culture are working according to the basic principles. Autumn is the time when the principles of the culture first begin to break down, with the birth of megacities, the shift of political influence away from the common man to the wealthy and powerful, the disintegration of religion and morals, and ultimately the questioning and consequent rejection of traditional values. In the winter, the culture approaches collapse. The breakdown first seen during the autumn period accelerates. Though Spengler’s theories fell somewhat into disrepute following World War II, my research suggests the importance and relevance of Spengler’s theories to the future and, in fact, the very survival of the West.”

A young man raised his hand and asked, “If Spengler was correct, what season is Western culture presently experiencing?”

“The present season, to use Spengler’s model, is the winter, which the West entered around 1800 under Napoleon. Other historians we’ve studied have expressed views similar to Spengler’s. While civilizations may endure, they also evolve. Quigley saw civilizations as moving through seven stages: mixture, gestation, expansion, age of conflict, universal empire, decay, and invasion. Toynbee, who in A Study of History argued that there have been more than twenty great cultures, believed that civilizations go through a period of growth, followed by a time of turmoil, and then disintegration.”

The same young man said, “Then when does our culture collapse?”

“The collapse of a culture isn’t something that happens suddenly. Think in terms of a culture experiencing a long, accelerating period of declining influence in the world, marked by political and social turmoil. The collapse, perhaps even the death of a culture, can play out over hundreds of years, or may occur more rapidly because of other forces. If Spengler was correct and a high culture lasts approximately one thousand years, then the downfall of Western culture should be pronounced by around the year 2050.”

The young man said, “That’s less than a hundred years away. Can anything prevent it?”

Warren Krieger paused a few moments before replying, “Spengler believed a culture moves in the direction of its destiny, regardless of individual choices. Can anything be done to alter the destiny of a culture? It would take great men, willing to risk everything, and uses of science and technology that we can’t begin to imagine in the year 1964.”