Spectrum FX Weekly Report

Spectrum FX Weekly Report

Markets started September on a strong note, with major global indices closing the first week in the green. An additional push in positive market sentiment has been the most recent development in Eastern Europe: in fact, this weekend served as a reminder of the ongoing and changing nature of the Russia-Ukraine war. Nonetheless, whether the strong start to the month was just a market positioning adjustment or the sign of anything more sustained will be on watch this week, especially as a new set of inflation reports comes out. In fact, a bevvy of consumer price index (CPI) reports for August come out this week: Germany, Spain, and the U.S. all release on Tuesday, the U.K. releases its report on Wednesday, France releases its report on Thursday, and Italy and the Eurozone as a whole release theirs on Friday.?

GBP

The Bank of England, whose meeting was due this week, postponed its interest rate decision last Friday in the wake of Queen Elizabeth II’s passing. It’s the first delay to a monetary policy meeting since the central bank became operationally independent 25 years ago. Moreover, the central bank faces a more fluctuating environment with new Prime Minister Liz Truss in charge and already having issued a major energy plan. Its effect on the market is among the things the BOE will have to weigh. Nonetheless, postponing their interest rate decision would allow policy setters to gather more economic data. In fact, having witnessed a contraction of 0.6% in economic activities during June 2022, market players will be interested in July’s monthly GDP figures to confirm the recently hawkish hopes from the Bank of England. Forecasts suggest that the UK GDP will reverse the previous drop with 0.5% MoM in July. Meanwhile, Manufacturing Production, which makes up around 80% of total industrial production, is expected to improve to 0.6% MoM in July.

EUR

European stock markets are expected to open with modest gains today, continuing the positive trend seen at the end of last week, helped by the substantial territorial gains made by Ukrainian troops over the weekend. Ukraine has retaken more than 3,000 sq. km this month, with most of this ground being taken thanks to a rapid weekend offensive that forced Russia to abandon its main logistics hub in the Kharkiv region. After months of stalemate, these swift manoeuvres will give the markets room to reconsider the range of outcomes. Prolonged attrition remains one option, but an earlier-than-expected end to the conflict has entered the equation. Ultimately, European markets closed last week with healthy gains as September started on a positive note, and this tone is expected to continue.

USD

The main point of focus this week is U.S. consumer price inflation data due on Tuesday, which is largely expected to dictate the path of the dollar in the near term. Markets are expecting inflation to retreat further from highs hit earlier this year, helped largely by easing fuel prices. Nonetheless, the reading is still expected to be well above the Federal Reserve’s annual target of 2%. Ultimately, this could give the Federal Reserve food for thought ahead of next week’s policy-setting meeting, with the U.S. central bank expected to deliver its third consecutive rate increase of 75 basis points in an attempt to curb this high inflation.

For a live rate or to book a trade please contact us.

T: +44 203 440 7550 | E: [email protected] | W: www.spectrumfx.co.uk

要查看或添加评论,请登录

Adam Church的更多文章

  • Spectrum FX Daily Report

    Spectrum FX Daily Report

    GBP: The British Pound enters today’s general elections with a spring in its step. However, there could be some wobbles…

  • Spectrum FX Daily Report

    Spectrum FX Daily Report

    GBP: Unlike previous elections, this Thursday’s vote may be somewhat of a low-key event for GBP. A Labour supermajority…

  • Spectrum FX Daily Report

    Spectrum FX Daily Report

    GBP well bid ahead of Thursday's UK General Election. - Labour Party on course for largest majority in House of Commons…

  • Spectrum FX Weekly Report

    Spectrum FX Weekly Report

    GBP: The British Pound’s recovery attempts faded in the face of limited market-moving events from the UK and weakened…

  • Spectrum FX Daily Report

    Spectrum FX Daily Report

    GBP: The British Pound seems to be gaining some momentum this morning as the UK economy grew slightly faster than…

  • Spectrum FX Daily Report

    Spectrum FX Daily Report

    GBP: The British Pound was relatively flat as yesterday's session saw little of note in scheduled releases, with the UK…

  • Spectrum FX Daily Report

    Spectrum FX Daily Report

    GBP: The British Pound was rangebound yesterday owing to a lack of impactful domestic data releases. In fact, this may…

  • Spectrum FX Daily Report

    Spectrum FX Daily Report

    GBP: The British Pound traded in a wide range against its major rivals yesterday, while firming against the U.S.

  • Spectrum FX Weekly Report

    Spectrum FX Weekly Report

    GBP: The British Pound has been consolidating its recent moves following last week’s dovish Bank of England meeting. In…

  • Spectrum FX Daily Report

    Spectrum FX Daily Report

    GBP: The British Pound edged higher this morning as the UK’s Office for National Statistics has reported stronger than…

社区洞察

其他会员也浏览了