Spectrum FX Daily Report
GBP:?The British Pound has been on the back foot these past few days; however, sterling is still on course for a 1.4% monthly gain against the U.S. Dollar despite first quarter gross domestic product growing just 0.1% on the quarter. In fact, despite this weak growth, traders continue to price in more rate hikes from the Bank of England as the country's inflation rate remained at 8.7% in May, the highest of any major advanced economy. Ultimately, GBP has of course been supported by hawkish surprises on wages and inflation data. Nevertheless, even though it’s the best-performing currency in G10 so far this year, many analysts are starting to believe that the upside potential has become increasingly constrained.
EUR:?The Euro stabilized in early European trade this morning ahead of the release of the June consumer price index for the eurozone as a whole. This is expected to fall to 5.6% in June from 6.1% in May, but German consumer prices rose by much more than expected in June, and this creates the possibility of an upside surprise given the dominance of the German economy. Ultimately, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has largely cemented expectations earlier this week for a ninth consecutive rise in interest rates in July, and this hawkish tone is set to prompt gains of roughly 1.7% for the euro against the dollar this month.
USD:?The U.S. Dollar held its ground and seems to be consolidating its recent appreciation this morning – putting it on course to record small quarterly gains as market participants anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates further as the year progresses. In fact, although the Dollar Index traded marginally lower at 102.98, it’s still heading for a gain of about 0.7% in the second quarter. This follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance, including at the European Central Bank’s annual gathering in Portugal earlier this week, that the U.S. central bank is likely to resume its rate-hiking cycle after pausing in June.
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