SPECIAL MISSION AIRCRAFT - 2

"Know the enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be in peril." - Sun Tzu

Can unmanned platforms replace manned ones?

Unmanned SMA are very valuable due to their:

• Long endurance (i.e. time-on-station capabilities)
• Cost-effectiveness in terms of acquisition, operation and maintenance
• Scalability and flexibility during operations
• Reduced man-power requirements
• Evolved autonomous capabilities
• Advancement in sensor technologies that allow them to perform ISR missions with precision strike capabilities
• Usage in contested or hostile airspace

In the long term, there is no doubt that most of the manned aircraft will be replaced with the unmanned ones. However, under the current conditions, large-body manned SMA cannot be replaced by unmanned SMA for several reasons:

• SMA perform multi-mission requiring complex tasks, including long-duration ISR operations while providing command and control of military forces and coordination of air operations. The integration of all capabilities into a drone requires advanced autonomy, artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data and wide-band secure communication systems. That’s why US Navy responded negatively to use Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton for AEW&C missions although the current configuration of the Triton, which is claimed to be enough to be used for AEW&C.

• Unmanned platform capabilities such as useful payload, electrical power availability, flight performance, enough space for sensors, structural limitations are far behind manned opponents. For example, considering MQ-4C Triton, available power is 30 kVA. Primary electrical power for the Boeing 737 NG, the green aircraft of the Boeing E-7T AEW&C or P-8A, is provided by two engine-integrated drive generators (IDGs), each of which has 90 kVA capacity. This means that E-7T or P-8A has 180 kVA total available electrical power.

• Naming unmanned aerial systems as Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) is not incomprehensible. Due to safety and regulatory concerns are still on the table, researches on automated tools and alternative approaches have been ongoing since 1990s. With several large research programs such as Free-Route Experimental Encounter Resolution (FREER) and the Mediterranean Free Flight project in Europe, and Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management (DAG/TM) in the US., Sense and Avoid or Detect and Avoid or Conflict Detection and Resolution (CD&R) or any other similar system is mandated by FAA and ICAO. Despite some improvements have been made with STANAG 4671 “UAV System Airworthiness Requirements (USAR)” and STANAG 4586 “Standard Interfaces of UAV Control System (UCS) for NATO UAV Interoperability” in military world, operating large, unmanned drones in mixed (manned and unmanned) airspace still raises safety and regulatory challenges. Although, some companies are claiming that their advanced systems seamlessly integrate with normal air traffic (via TCAS, GPWS, Advanced Navigation Management, ADS-B Tx/Rx and other unique systems), those unmanned systems may not be considered with “sufficient autonomy”. Safety protocols, air traffic management systems, and integration with existing aviation infrastructure need to be developed and approved.
• Required level of AI is not currently available, we humans are still valuable assets in complex operations for decision making and judgement. Replicating this level of human behavior needs additional international efforts including ethical decisions.
• Although current technology allows of handling high volumes of data and communication, high capacity-wideband secure communication links are still insufficient considering multi-mission applications.
• Unmanned platforms have still some problems to operate during adverse weather conditions.

Does the demand continue for SMA?

Demand for SMA is continuously increasing with the increasing threats, and changing and sometimes worsening strategic stability nearly all over the world. Those are extensively used in the battlefield.

SMA programs are rare, and sometimes reach to multi-billion US Dolar. The global key manufacturers or integrators of SMA include Boeing, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Textron, Bombardier, SAAB, Israel Airspace Industries, Gulf Stream Aerospace, which are giants of aerospace industries. Mission system manufacturers are more than this list.

I have shared my analyses regarding Canada and the US deal for 16 P-8A Poseidon Multi-Mission Aircraft procurement to replace CP-140M Aurora Fleet for 7.7 Billion USD in Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft Project. Defense procurement have meanings beyond a simple procurement, they are carried out on a “knife edge” of international relations, industrialization considerations, meeting end-user requirements, schedule pressures, budget constraints, availability/capacity issues and many others. No doubt, they are mostly political!

That’s why Canadian Government turns to P-8A, while they are also part of NATO Maritime Multi Mission Aircraft (M3A) program. Similarly, Germany, another partner, chose P-8A also. NATO will probably select E-7T for E-3 replacement. The market size is very large, varying from small to big aircraft.

What is next?

No doubt that we will be talking about unmanned systems a few decades later. But today we are talking about more how to create Manned Unmanned-Teaming (MUM-T) and develop new sensor technologies.

• Multi billion USD programs show that Armies will continue to use manned SMA for a while longer. But defense firms are working on hybrid teaming solutions as-well-as replacements.

o?? There is a tendency to transformation from unmanned to manned and it will continue to happen. The capabilities of the manned SMA usually have some overlaps with those of the unmanned SMA. Both systems may have a different but complementing performances, in respect capabilities, responsiveness, range and endurance. Unmanned SMA will easily complement their manned counterpart for several missions.

o?? Within March 2009, Boeing demonstrated simultaneous command and control of three Boeing Insitu Scan Eagle UAV from a Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) Boeing E-7T Wedgetail. UAVs were approximately 120 Nm away from E-7T and operators used them for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. Boeing demonstrated MUM-T and sent back real-time video imagery of ground targets.

o?? Within 2021 and 2022, Boeing successfully paired MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone with US Navy’s F/A-18 Hornet, P-8A Poseidon and E-2D Hawkeye. Up to four MQ-25 Stingray has been tasked via its onboard autonomy framework developed by Aurora Flight Sciences (AFS).

o?? In December 2022, Europe’s first large-scale multi-domain flight demo led by Airbus was performed. During this demo, a Learjet 35 acting as a surrogate fighter, one H145M and five Do-DT25 UAV teamed up and accomplished a mission. This demo was later repeated with Eurofighter Typhoon.

o??Multi mission, air-launched UAV needs to be designed to extend SMA coverage area and stand-off range from threat zones while improving mission effectivity. A good example is Piasecki Turais modular UAV developed under a US Navy Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR ) Program for a ‘Wing and Bomb Bay Launched UAS”. In 2013, several tests demonstrated aerial launch, in-flight reconfiguration, autonomous navigation and recovery.

• Technology miniaturization is enabling smaller and more capable mission systems, especially for unmanned ones. The researches to develop smaller and lighter mission systems that require less power is enabling the designs of smaller SMA platforms that can perform missions from long standoff and slant ranges. Long stand-off ranges is naturally beneficial for the survivability while operating in a hostile environment.
• Today, with the advancement of digital technologies, new systems are coming that in the past could not afford or realize their developments. Quantum Technology which refers to a field of science and technology that utilizes the principles of quantum mechanics (using the behavior of matter and energy at the smallest scales, such as atoms, electrons, and photons) to develop new technologies and applications. This also helps Defense Industries to develop new capable systems (RADAR, Acoustic, Navigation, etc.) which are more accurate, more thorough and more efficient. Systems are less vulnerability to the signal jamming and other electromagnetic interference that is increasingly common with traditional sensors.

• As the world constantly evolves, governments project the development of artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) in military applications, aiming fully autonomous operations in denied communications environments. On the other hand, new AI/ML-capable platforms that could lead to lethal precision-strike weapons are bringing them to the forefront of governments' efforts amid deep concerns about how much autonomy to grant military vehicles (machines have no built-in moral compass). Naturally, this causes some limitations on capabilities despite their potential benefits. Leaving aside those discussions, AI/ML technologies are likely to play an increasingly important role in the future. Reports show the US DoD is planning to spend 874 million USD on AI/ML technologies. Further, the Pentagon shares 2.3 billion USD of its science and technology research budget to AI/ML. By this attempts, the US Air Force Research Laboratory led a successful three-hour sortie, on July 25, 2023, demonstrating the first-ever flight of artificial intelligence agents (algorithms) controlling a?XQ-58A Valkyrie UAV.

AI/ML offers significant potential for improving the efficiency, effectiveness, and accuracy of SMA missions by leveraging advanced data analysis, enhanced situational awareness, automation, pattern recognition, predictive analyses, improved target identification, decision support and more capabilities. This will reduce the cognitive load on operators onboard.

• Platforms are continuously decreasing in size and technology may allow SMA requirements even applicable for nano airborne vehicles, hence it is hard to imagine SMA future in the long term. Consider an insect-like air vehicles being used to ISR missions, it is not so far away if "nano airborne vehicles" will replace the "giant platforms" of today.