Special issue: Launch of the Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) Global Project Tracker

Signal from MPP | Issue No. 13 | April 2024

Last week, MPP launched a?global industrial decarbonisation tracker which maps the pipeline status globally of all net-zero aligned assets for the seven hardest-to-abate sectors.?We are pleased to share it with you today along with a deep dive into how to use this tool and what it shows. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions or comments.

1. Overview: Heavy industry transition has started but needs to accelerate sevenfold to meet 2030 climate targets

Urgent action is needed to secure the vital investment required to get harder-to-abate industrial sectors on track towards decarbonisation targets.

2. Global Project Tracker explained

MPP’s Head of Sector Transitions & Insights Catherine McFarlane explains the new digital map.

3. A bird’s eye view on decarbonisation progress

Data from MPP shows the progress of the seven heavy industry and transport sectors.

4. Sector-by-sector: Clock is ticking to meet vital 2030 decarbonisation milestones

The scale of action required to get every heavy industry and transport sector on track to meet global decarbonisation targets is vast. Explore the sectors in detail.

tracker.missionpossiblepartnership.org

1. Overview: Heavy industry transition has started but needs to accelerate sevenfold to meet 2030 climate targets

Urgent action is needed to secure vital investment required to get global harder-to-abate industrial sectors on track towards their decarbonisation targets.?

Data from the new Global Project Tracker demonstrates that industrial decarbonisation has started, with a growing pipeline of net-zero-aligned projects across the harder-to-abate sectors. Yet current progress is insufficient, and rapid acceleration is needed to secure the financing required for vital decarbonisation projects in the next three years. MPP urges immediate collective action to create tangible investment momentum.

The Tracker highlights that while plans have been identified for around 80% of the pipeline of 700+ commercial-scale deep decarbonisation plants required by the 2030 milestones, to date only 16% have achieved Final Investment Decision (FID), the critical stage that must be reached to enable projects to commence construction.

A 7x scale up in activity is needed within three years, which equates to 595 commercial-scale deep decarbonisation plants that must reach FID across the seven harder-to-abate (HTA) industrial sectors by the end of 2026. Almost 7 million more zero-emission trucks must also be on the road by 2030 to avoid the real risk of missing 2050 global net-zero targets.

“We have a new level of insight into the decarbonisation trajectory for heavy industry and transport – and the rising ambition of industry is clear,” said Dick Benschop , Interim Chief Executive Officer of the Mission Possible Partnership. “But with the planet's future hanging in the balance, there is no hiding from the challenges ahead.”

He added: “We need to rapidly unlock the barriers that can transform plans into plants. MPP is committed to addressing the collective action needed, and we urge all stakeholders to contribute.”

The Tracker shows that 68 commercial-scale net-zero-aligned plants are currently operational, and 42 are at FID. More than 700 must be up and running by 2030, according to MPP’s industry-backed milestones for decarbonising key sectors in line with the Paris-aligned ambition for a 1.5oC trajectory. To meet these deadlines, FID must be reached within three years to enable construction this decade.

The encouraging news is that there is a growing pipeline of net-zero-aligned projects across the sectors. Most progress is seen in aviation, where Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending mandates and subsidy schemes are driving projects to operation in Europe and the US so that 15% of the target has now passed FID.

There has also been a marked increase in the green ammonia pipeline, with announcements exceeding the 2030 targets, supported by signals of demand from the shipping and fertiliser sectors. Overall, companies have announced plans to build 473 new net-zero-aligned plans across the sectors, which – if brought to FID, would reduce the current gap significantly.

Yet, analysis shows that many projects struggle to move from announcement to FID, with various policy and economic barriers stalling progress. The pace is too slow and none of the sectors – which together account for almost a third of all global emissions - are on track. Time is running out, and MPP urges collective action by governments, companies, and financial institutions to unlock investment barriers and fast-track progress.

Evidence from the Tracker is emerging on the interventions that can be taken to accelerate the pipeline and bring plants towards commercial-scale operation – which typically takes 4-6 years from FID. Key levers across sectors and regions can inspire further action:

• Government policies can create demand and bridge the green premium: Regions that have introduced robust sectoral targets and policies have seen a surge in pipeline activity. E.g., SAF blending mandates in the EU and IRA subsidies and DoE grants in the US are increasing industry confidence and reducing the green premium.
• Support for clean technology deployment can de-risk investment: Nascent technologies with higher green premiums must be supported at the early demonstration stage, and upscaling provided at the industry and government level.? E.g., Canadian public-private partnership to develop new inert anode technology for aluminium has led to regional announcements.
• Co-location of projects and enabling infrastructure brings synergies: Joined up vision and a systems approach across green industrial hubs can unlock shared benefits with midstream infrastructure and community-based organisations.? E.g., The Transatlantic Clean Hydrogen Trade Coalition shipping route from Houston to Rotterdam is being established to enable green import and export infrastructure. Green hydrogen hubs are emerging globally, such as one at the Port of Pecém in Ceará, Brazil.

Commenting on the new findings, Christiana Figueres , co-founder of Global Optimism, said that exponential transformation was now seen to be within reach across heavy industry, shipping, aviation and trucking.

“Realising the Paris Agreement means the so-called ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors ‘have-to-abate’. MPP’s Global Project Tracker demonstrates that they already can and - in many cases - ‘want-to-abate’,” she said. “But, while the MPP project pipeline provides a clear pathway for progress, success is not inevitable.”

She added: “Policymakers and investors must show courageous leadership at this crucial crossroads and make decisions that enable the have-to-abate sectors to move at the pace and scale required.”

The Global Project Tracker is now live at tracker.missionpossiblepartnership.org and maps the location and status globally of net-zero-aligned assets across seven sectors. It enables industry groups to identify potential partners or green hubs, financial institutions to see potential investment options, and policymakers to track progress in their regions and inform decision-making.

With quarterly updates, MPP will continue to chart the levers that can unlock progress in bringing a critical mass of projects to realisation this decade.?

2. Global Project Tracker explained

Mission Possible Partnership’s Head of Sector Transitions & Insights Catherine McFarlane explains the new Global Projects Tracker.

1. What is the main message coming from MPP’s new Global Projects tracker?

2. Based on these findings, what has to happen now?

3. How can these latest findings in the tracker be converted into this urgent action to prompt greater progress towards decarbonisation?

4. What happens next with the tracker – how can industry get involved?

3. A bird’s eye view on decarbonisation progress

The Global Project Tracker was created to bring new insight on the decarbonisation progress of the seven heavy industry and transport sectors which cause around 30% of all global CO2 emissions: aluminium, cement, chemicals, and steel in industry, and aviation, shipping, and trucking in transport.

It underpins MPP’s strategic objective to get ‘shovels on the ground’ and help industries to reach FID for the projects needed to create a critical mass of deep decarbonisation.

Updated quarterly, it shines a light on the current investment gaps and what is needed to create the broader market conditions to drive the sectors towards a decarbonised future.

“The MPP Global Project Tracker offers a real-time dashboard of progress against a clear roadmap that the industry sector can follow to tackle the climate crisis,” explained Rachel Jetel , Co-Director of the World Resources Institute Systems Change Lab which is a knowledge partner for the tracker.

“Systems Change Lab finds that current efforts to decarbonize the industry sector are well off track -- and in some cases heading in the wrong direction,” she added. “This tracker helps identify where the bright spots are and where action is needed most to?share learnings for how to accelerate climate action.”

Progress in the Tracker is measured against an overall target set by MPP’s industry-backed 2030 real-economy milestones for each sector. These provide a forward-looking indicator of momentum towards the deployment of assets and the potential capacity of clean technologies required to be on track for a 1.5C-aligned trajectory.

The milestone for each sector is represented by the number of commercial-scale decarbonised plants or zero-emission trucks required, denoting the critical mass of projects that must be operational by 2030.

By providing a clear visual representation of all the net-zero aligned assets and projects - by location and sector - industry groups can identify potential partners or green hubs, allow financial institutions to see potential investment options and let policymakers track progress in their regions and inform their decision-making.

Rob van Riet , Interim Head of the World Economic Forum’s First Movers Coalition, and a contributor to the Tracker, highlighted the critical importance of accessing granular insights into the global progress of net-zero aligned projects to accelerating and scaling the collaborative action needed to drive industry decarbonisation.

“The tracker serves a key role in informing committed companies on where they may find the supply and partners needed to implement their commitments,” he said. “First Movers Coalition is looking forward to continued and deepened collaboration with MPP, including through leveraging the synergies between MPP’s Global Project Tracker and FMC’s First Suppliers Hub.”

Early insight from the Tracker reveals evidence of five key challenges to overcome to unlock projects at pace and move to FID:

1. Bridge the green premium?

2. Support technology deployment

3. Create early demand & new markets

4. Roll-out enabling infrastructure

5. De-risk project financing

Read more in our insights briefing here .

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4. Sector-by-sector: Clock is ticking to meet vital 2030 decarbonisation milestones

The Tracker reveals the scale of action required to get every heavy industry and transport sector on track to meet global decarbonisation targets.

It shows that while industrial decarbonisation has started, rapid acceleration in investment is needed to meet critical 2030 milestones towards deployment goals for a 1.5C aligned trajectory.

This latest data highlights that across every sector, the clock is ticking. None of the seven harder-to-abate sectors - aluminium, cement, chemicals, steel, aviation, and shipping - is currently on track and, with 595 projects required to reach Final Investment Decision stage in the next 3 years, along with millions of zero-emission trucks that are still required, time is running out to get them on course.

However, alongside these challenges, some progress is being seen to bring forward vital decarbonisation projects and set the policy and finance frameworks needed to help accelerate delivery.

Companies have issued a wave of project announcements in the past 12 months, indicating a growing industry ambition and a shift towards more favourable conditions emerging in some locations.

Find the full details for each sector at https://tracker.missionpossiblepartnership.org/mpp-global-projects-map/pipeline

Note: The tracker compares actual investment progress against MPP’s 2030 pipeline targets – indicated by a number of commercial-scale net-zero aligned plants or zero-emission trucks. Together, this represents around 70% of the emissions abatement needed to keep the sectors with their carbon budgets by 2030 and on track for net zero 2050. The remaining 30% of emissions abatement can be achieved through energy and materials efficiency.

tracker.missionpossiblepartnership.org