Special edition: Whats next for Donald Trump?
To Martine Croxall, 7 more... on 2024-05-31 23:00
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31 May, 2024
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Anthony Zurcher
North America correspondent
Hello from Washington, and welcome to a special edition of US Election Unspun. In case you’ve been hiking the Appalachian Trail or living in a cave, let me catch you up on the big news. Yesterday, a jury of 12 New Yorkers found Donald Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree.?Watch this 80-second video?of what happened in court as the historic verdict was read out.
This marks the first time in US history that a former president has been convicted of a felony crime. Perhaps more importantly for this newsletter, it is also the first guilty verdict for a presumptive or actual major-party presidential candidate. There are a lot of political implications to unpack, so let’s get started.
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THE TAKEAWAY
It’s a political powder keg
Donald Trump in the courtroom before being convicted. Credit: Getty Images
There’s a saying about the damage from political scandals that dates back to the Richard Nixon Watergate imbroglio: “It’s not the crime, it’s the cover-up.”
In Trump’s case, however, the crime was the cover-up. The former president’s attempts to conceal a payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels are what led to this history-making felony conviction.
Here’s what happens next. Trump will almost certainly appeal – although his prospects for success in a New York court system that has not been kind to him in the past are uncertain. That buys the former president time, however, and gets him closer to election day, when a victory could put his legal headaches on hold, or sweep them away entirely.
Trump has a sentencing hearing on 11 July – just four days before the Republican convention – placing a political powder keg in front of the former president’s biggest moment in the limelight.
Judge Juan Merchan, who Trump has relentlessly bashed as corrupt and conflicted, has some discretion as to whether to opt for a fine, parole or prison and can take the former president’s remorse (or lack thereof) into account.
Justice Juan Merchan has some discretion over the punishment. Credit: Reuters
Republicans, for the moment, have almost universally rallied around Trump, using words like “travesty”, “disgrace” and “shameful” to describe the verdict. Trump’s conviction could boost the base’s enthusiasm for their embattled candidate, which would be valuable in an election that hinges on turnout. The Trump campaign is already touting $34m (￡27m) in donations in just the six hours after the verdict, a remarkable sum that could help him cut into Joe Biden’s current financial advantage.
However, there may be other, less committed moderate voters – particularly women, college-educated and suburb-dwellers – who aren’t thrilled with the idea of sending a felon to the White House.
The takeaway:?Democrats and Republicans (and me,?in my analysis last night) have said that the final verdict on Trump will be delivered by voters in November. That’s true, but it shouldn’t diminish the historical importance of what happened in New York City on Thursday.
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PICKS FROM THE CAMPAIGN
What the conviction means for the election?
Is this a dead end for Trump, or another bump on the road to power? I unpack at greater length what could happen next.
'The air in the courtroom turned to stone’
Here’s a rundown of the atmosphere during the verdict, where Trump pursed his lips as he was convicted.?
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This is why Trump’s team lost
From the Cohen factor to strong evidence linking Trump to the crime, experts say what they thought of the trial.?
Read more >
Ask Madeline
Q.?Will the jurors’ names be kept secret in this case??- Karen, England
A.?I’m handing over to Madeline Halpert, digital North America reporter, to answer this one. Here’s what she says:
“From the start of this trial, Justice Merchan decided the jurors in this extremely high-profile case should remain anonymous. Only people who have attended the trial know what these jurors look like. Reporters only have a basic description of them, not their names.
"Yesterday, Justice Merchan told them that now that the trial is over, jurors have the option to come forward, or not. In Trump’s previous civil trial in New York brought by writer?E Jean Carroll, the judge cautioned jurors not to come forward because of the risks. Trump has an extraordinarily strong base of supporters, some of whom have lodged threats against those who have attacked the former president publicly.? For this reason, jurors may wish to remain anonymous to the public in this trial of a century.”
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ON AMERICAST THIS WEEK
Trump trial... Donald found guilty!
I get all the color from inside the courtroom from?Kayla Epstein?and?Madeline Halpert, who watched the verdict.
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And finally...
I'll be back in your inbox on Wednesday as usual. While you're waiting for that edition to land, this is where you can?keep up to date?with all the US election latest. See you next week!
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