Special Credit Conditions Quarterly Update: Macro Forecasts and Narratives | Regional Credit Reports | Up Next - Global Credit Report and Wrap Up

Welcome to another special quarterly edition of Essential Economics focused exclusively on our flagship Credit Conditions Committee (CCC) forecasting round! My macro team and our credit research colleagues were busy issuing our quarterly updates this week. In my global macro update, I argue that the policy easing cycle is in full swing and that economies remain more resilient than expected. Our growth forecasts are broadly unchanged, and we still see a soft landing. ?Regarding risks, we are watching services spending and labor demand for signs of weakness, as well as bond market conditions and geopolitical developments. The Ratings economics team provided more detailed updates on the US, Canada, Europe, the UK, Asia Pacific, and Emerging Markets, while our credit research colleagues also published their regional updates. Finally, Alexandra Dimitrijevic and team will issue the global credit update on October 1, and we will wrap it all up with the CCC webinar on October 2. ?

Global Macro: So Far, So Smooth – Can It Last?

In my global macro report, I argue that the global policy rate easing cycle is now in full swing with a 50 basis point cut by US Federal Reserve in mid-September. This creates space for a swathe of central banks, particularly in emerging markets, to follow suit. Economies remain more resilient that expected, but outcomes are diverging: the US is slowing, the Eurozone is recovering, and China faces property-related headwinds.

Our GDP growth forecasts are broadly unchanged compared with the previous round.

To read the full global macro report, click here .

Regional Macro Reports

This week we released a suite of regional macro reports, authored by members of my team:

?·??????? US (Satyam Panday): Growth And Rates Start Shifting To Neutral

·??????? Canada (Satyam Panday): Further Rate Cuts Will Accelerate Growth

·??????? Eurozone (Sylvain Broyer, Aude Guez, Sarah Limbach): Consumer Spending To The Rescue

·??????? UK (Marion Amiot): Disinflation And Rate Cuts Will Stimulate Growth

·??????? Asia Pacific (Louis Kuijs, Vishrut Rana, Vince Conti): Central Banks To Remain Cautious Despite U.S. Rate Relief

·??????? Emerging Markets (Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, Valerijs Rezvijs, Vishrut Rana): Lower Interest Rates Help As Pockets Of Risk Rise .

?Regional Credit Research Reports

?Our credit research colleagues released their quarterly updates this week as well:

?·??????? North America (David Tesher, Yucheng Zheng): Set For Improvement—With Eyes On The Election

·??????? Europe (Paul Watters): Turn In Credit Cycle Won't Be Plain Sailing

·??????? Asia Pacific (Eunice Tan): Mixed Signals - Growth And Rates

·??????? Emerging Markets (Jose Perez-Gorozpe): Risks Loom Amid A Fragile Stability .

Up Next: Global Credit Report, CCC Webinar

Next week features the global credit conditions report, to be released by Alexandra Dimitrijevic and team on October 1. ?Following that, please join me (US/EMEA), Louis Kuijs (APAC) and our senior credit research colleagues on October 2 as we wrap up our Credit Conditions Committee Round with a pair of complimentary webinars discussing our updated forecasts, narratives and risks.

To register for the Americas and EMEA webinar, click here .

To register for the Asia Pacific webinar, click here .

?

If you haven’t bookmarked it already, the S&P Global Ratings Economic landing page can be found here .