Special Credit Conditions Committee Quarterly Update: Macro Forecasts | Regional Credit Reports | Up Next: Global Credit Report and Wrap-Up Webinar

Welcome to a special quarterly edition of Essential Economics focused exclusively on our flagship Credit Conditions Committee (CCC) forecasting round! My macro team and our credit research “cousins” were busy issuing our quarterly updates this week. In my global macro update, I argue that the long-awaited policy easing cycle has begun and that our soft-landing narrative remains valid. The global economics team provided more detailed updates on the US, Canada, Europe, the UK, Asia Pacific, and Emerging Markets. Our team also shared our views in the media, including my sit-down with Channel News Asia on-site at World Economic Forum meeting in Dalian, China. Our credit research colleagues published their regional updates and Alexandra Dimitrijevic will issue the global credit update on July 1. We will wrap it all up with the CCC webinar on July 9. ?

Updated Global Macro Forecast

In our global macro report, I argue that the long-awaited policy rate easing cycle has begun in some advanced economies as inflation continues to decline toward target. The U.S. Federal Reserve remains on hold for now, and some emerging markets are dialing back their monetary policy easing as a result. Our soft-landing narrative remains valid as labor markets remain tight and consumer spending on services remains robust; Europe has already landed and a recovery is taking hold.

Our GDP growth forecasts are broadly unchanged from the previous round.

To read the full global macro report, click here.

I shared our updated macro views with Channel News Asia on-site at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China. The interview covered our US and China forecasts, the outlook for advanced country monetary policy rates, and US-China relations.

To watch the interview (which starts at 1:16:30), click here.

Regional Macro Reports

?This week we also released a suite of regional macro reports, authored by members of my team:

?·??????? US (Satyam Panday): Milder Growth Ahead

·??????? Canada (Satyam Panday): Turning the Corner

·??????? Eurozone (Sylvain Broyer, Aude Guez, Sarah Limbach): Growth Returns, Rates Fall

·??????? UK (Marion Amiot): A Cooling Labor Market Paves The Way For Rate Cuts

·??????? Asia Pacific (Louis Kuijs, Vishrut Rana, Vince Conti): Exporters and EMs Are Outperforming

·??????? Emerging Markets (Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, Valerijs Rezvijs, Vishrut Rana) Growth on Track, Policy Risks Rising.

Our chief economists also hit the airwaves around the globe to share the key highlights of our latest outlooks.

Elijah Oliveros-Rosen joined Fifi Peters on CNBC Africa to discuss the outlook for EMs. To watch the interview, click here.

Satyam Panday discussed the US economy on Reuters TV with Elena Casas-Montanez. To watch the interview, click here.

Louis Kuijs also appeared on CNBC Street Signs Asia, while Sylvain Broyer popped up on CNBC Squawk Box Europe.

Regional Credit Research Reports

?Our credit research colleagues released their quarterly updates this week as well:

?·??????? North America (David Tesher, Yucheng Zheng): A Brighter Outlook Laden With Risks

·??????? Europe (Paul Watters): Keep Calm, Carry On

·??????? Asia Pacific (Eunice Tan): A Trade Showdown Unfolds

·??????? Emerging Markets (Jose Perez-Gorozpe): Policy Uncertainty May Hinder Resilience.

Up Next: Global Credit Report, CCC Webinar

Next week features the global credit conditions report, which will be released by Alexandra and team on July 1. ?Please join us on July 9 as we wrap up our Credit Conditions Committee Round with a pair of complimentary webinars featuring our senior economists and credit researchers.

To register for the Americas webinar, click here.

To register for the Asia Pacific webinar, click here.

If you haven’t bookmarked it already, the S&P Global Ratings Economics Research landing page can be found here.