Spain Returns, With An Asterisk*
David Remington
SPOF Solutions Coach | Accounting Consultant | Interim Controller | Interim Accounting Manager | Manager FP&A | Sr Financial Analyst | Sr Tax Analyst | Knowledge Transfer Specialist | Super Interviewer | Excel Certified
Apr 30 20 — Rem COVID-19 Report #39
Globally, the metrics improved again on Wednesday. Recovering nearly all the way back to Sunday’s levels, Simple CrossOver was back at 67%, while Acid CrossOver moved up to 53%.
The US numbers were better. Simple CrossOver improved from 27% to 36% on Wednesday, while Acid CrossOver was up 10 points, from 18% to 28%. This was driven by one of the highest recoveries figures to date – 8,097, though new cases continue to plateau in the high 20,000s.
Italy continued to post good numbers. Wednesday’s Simple CrossOver down ticked slightly from 129% to 127%, on slightly lower death counts (323, down from 382). This dynamic equated to neutral news on the Acid CrossOver metric, which essentially remained the same, at 110.79%, versus 110.81%.
The Spain data has returned, evidently with catch ups. Simple CrossOver for Wednesday calculated as 141%, while Acid CrossOver was 131%. * While I believe this is “directionally correct”, to smooth out their reporting, I am considering moving their metrics to a 7-day moving weighted average, which I believe will give a more correct, and definitely smoother, view of their situation.
I measure 2 things, on a color-coded scale between 0% and 200+%, the convenient StopLight format (red — yellow — green):
1. Simple CrossOver. How do total resolutions for a given day (recoveries + deaths) compare to new cases? Or thought of another way — what’s going on with Net Cases, which suggests consumption of hospital and medical resources. At 100% or greater, net outstanding cases are declining, as was the case in China in mid March, and now finally we’re seeing in Spain and Italy, but no so much the United States, YET, here at the end of April.
2. Acid Test CrossOver. This poses an even stricter burden, comparing only recoveries versus new cases. This gets more to the heart of — are we winning the battle? And to my understanding, of the original metric — when recoveries start exceeding new cases, we are winning the war.
By the way, the term “Acid Test” is inspired by the Acid Test ratio we learn as accountants, which is a stricter measure of Cash availability to pay bills.
David L. Remington
April 30, 2020
Consultant Principal at SJ Johnson Consulting LLC
4 年Glad to see dara in from Spain. Looking at rolling periods sounds like a worthwhile approach where there is lag and catchup appearing to exist in daily reporting. Thanks.