Spain leads EU growth as RE momentum builds across Europe
GRI Club Europe
High-level content and networking, shaping the present and future of the real estate market
European markets have been buoyant, with the FTSE 100 and STOXX 600 reaching record highs, driven by strong performances in energy and real estate stocks.
?? Spain’s economy is presently leading Europe at 3.2% GDP growth in 2024, driven by tourism, strong financial services, and EU recovery funds. Inflation has stabilised at 2.8%, and job stability has improved, though high public debt and a housing crisis remain concerns.?
The country is now Europe’s second most attractive real estate market according to CBRE’s European Investor Intentions Survey 2025, forecasting investment growth of 15% in 2025 to reach EUR 16 billion.?
?? Madrid and Barcelona rank among the top four cities for investment, with multifamily/BTR in high demand, despite challenges like financing costs and geopolitical risks.
However, Spain’s proposed 100% property tax on non-EU buyers and the end of its golden visa in April may deter foreign investment, with similar measures considered in France, Greece, and Portugal.
?? As European markets tighten, British buyers are increasingly looking to the US, Australia, the UAE, and Cyprus.
Meanwhile, CBRE reveals that Europe’s commercial real estate market is gaining momentum heading into 2025, supported by stable interest rates, economic growth, and rising investment volumes.
?? Adding to this sense of optimism, Colliers reports growing confidence in residential and industrial & logistics sectors, while retail and hospitality, particularly in Southern Europe, are performing well.
The report also shows that the UK ended 2024 with a two-year high in transactions, Nordic markets rebounded with major housing deals, and Germany maintained steady activity despite political uncertainties.
?? Simultaneously, abrdn has raised its real estate outlook for Europe and the UK, forecasting three-year annualised returns of around 9%, driven by a construction crunch limiting new supply and pushing up rents.
The firm favours logistics and residential investments, but expects improvements in prime office locations across London, Paris, Madrid, and Amsterdam, as well as for the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, and France to be the strongest performers in the region.
Against a backdrop of rising investment volumes, evolving tax policies, and macroeconomic shifts, don’t miss out on the chance to spend time with top industry leaders in Madrid on 8-9 April for Ibero-American GRI 2025, and explore cross-border investment opportunities in Spain, Portugal, and Latin America.?
Unlocking Switzerland - Real Estate’s Golden Ticket?
The Swiss real estate market is widely regarded as one of the most stable in the world - but entry is far from straightforward for foreign investors. Strict regulations on foreign ownership, domestic institutional dominance, limited liquidity, and relatively low yields all pose significant challenges.
?? At the recent Unlocking Switzerland GRI Club meeting, top executives and industry leaders gathered in Zurich to assess whether these barriers outweigh the benefits - or if the market still offers long-term value for those who can navigate its complexities.
Switzerland is synonymous with capital preservation and security, making it an attractive destination for those seeking stability rather than high returns.?
?? Yet, with stringent restrictions and competitive local players controlling much of the market, international investors must carefully assess whether the price of entry justifies the long-term benefits.
Despite these hurdles, Switzerland remains a sought-after investment destination for those with the right strategy - but what does it take to unlock opportunities in this exclusive market?
Tariff and mortgage-price wars on the horizon?
Concerns are looming over the construction and real estate sectors as the US tariffs on steel and aluminium threatened by President Trump are expected to be implemented in short order, with the potential to significantly raise material costs and disrupt supply chains across Europe.
The UK steel industry has warned of a potential GBP 400 million export hit, while the EU has vowed to retaliate with countermeasures targeting key US exports. The uncertainty surrounding trade tensions has also fuelled a rise in gold and aluminium prices as investors seek safe havens.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates to 4.5% last week, its third reduction since August, as it attempts to balance weak economic growth and persistent inflation.
While some policymakers pushed for a deeper cut, Governor Andrew Bailey signalled caution, forecasting inflation to peak at 3.7% later this year. At the same time, the NIESR think tank predicts only two more rate cuts, anticipating stronger UK growth than the BoE but warning of long-term financial pressures.
With Santander launching the first sub-4% deals in months, this easing rate environment could trigger a mortgage price war as homebuyers rush to secure lower rates before stamp duty discounts are reduced in April.
Join top industry leaders active in the region for the GRI UK & Europe Reunion 2025 in London on February 27th to discuss the shifting landscape of real estate and construction financing amid rising trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
How to survive real estate downturns, with Megan Walters
Optimism is returning to commercial real estate - but what’s driving this shift?
Drawing from her experience across five market cycles, Megan Walters shared her insights on stabilising capital values and improving lending conditions with Gustavo Favaron, CEO and Managing Partner of GRI Club, at the exclusive GRI Global Chairmen’s Retreat in St Moritz, Switzerland.
??From managing debt to understanding the role of equity buyers, Megan offers crucial insights into the current real estate landscape, highlighting two key reasons for optimism - the end of capital value falls, and the positive outlook from the IMF Global Financial Stability Report on CRE lending.
The industry expert also discussed how the rising influence of GCC investors is forging the region into a key investment hub, with sovereign wealth funds and family offices deploying long-term capital despite global uncertainties.
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