Are space wars becoming a reality?

The debate surrounding space warfare is intensifying, sparking growing concerns and discussions.

Since the early days of the Great War, airspace became a battleground among nations. While airplanes pioneered this domain, today's focus has shifted towards extraterrestrial space. Here are several aspects to consider:

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1. Military Space Capabilities: The ability to destroy satellites from other nations or conduct offensives from space poses a strategic advantage for armed forces. However, the development of such capabilities risks triggering an arms race with unpredictable consequences.

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2. Space Deterrence: During the Cold War, nuclear deterrence was pivotal in avoiding major conflicts. Today, space deterrence is less assured, opening up the possibility of space battles in the current strategic context.

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Reflection on Peace: Space is already a battleground because humans are. Yet, it could also be viewed as an opportunity, a place to envision and establish elements of peace among nations and human beings.

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While rumors about Russia planning to orbit anti-satellite nuclear weapons reignite debates, the issue of space warfare is not new.

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As leaked reports from the House Intelligence Committee suggest, Russia is indeed developing an anti-satellite nuclear weapon. This raises two points: firstly, the threat posed by such weaponry isn't entirely novel, but secondly, it's deeply concerning.

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The United States relies on satellites for critical functions, including early warning of potential enemy attacks, communications, and guiding bombs and missiles. Neutralizing GPS satellites, for instance, would have a major impact, leaving many American ships at sea unaware of their precise locations.

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Both Russia and China have tested various types of anti-satellite systems (ASATs). In 2014, Russia deployed the Olymp-K satellite, maneuvering it within 10 kilometers of two Intelsat communication satellites. If armed, it could have easily destroyed both.

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However, it's noteworthy that according to U.S. military intelligence, the spacecraft Russia is currently developing isn't armed with nuclear weapons but could be nuclear-powered. The situation remains complex and subject to ongoing assessments.

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The notion of "Star Wars" is the nickname given by some media outlets to the Strategic Defense Initiative, a project initiated in 1983 by President Ronald Reagan during the Cold War. This initiative aimed to develop a missile defense system based on satellites in orbit to protect the United States from potential intercontinental ballistic missile attacks.

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The Strategic Defense Initiative sparked passionate debates and was criticized for its high cost, technical feasibility, and geopolitical implications. While it was never fully implemented, it left a lasting imprint on popular culture, inspiring works of science fiction, including the Star Wars saga.

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Anti-satellite missiles (ASATs) are missiles designed to destroy artificial satellites in orbit. They are typically derived from ballistic missile defense programs. Only four countries have conducted ASAT missile tests:

1. United States of America: The last U.S. test occurred in 1985, but they resumed in 2008 with the destruction of a defunct spy satellite called USA-193.

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2. People's Republic of China: China conducted its first test in 2007.

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3. USSR (now defunct) and Russia: The USSR conducted ASAT tests, and Russia succeeded it in 2015 and 2021.

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4. Republic of India: India conducted its first test in 2019 by destroying its own satellite, Microsat-R.

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It's important to note that international treaties signed by major powers prohibit offensive weapons in orbit, but the resumption of anti-missile and anti-satellite missile tests threatens the geostrategic balance established by the balance of terror. Recently, a UN working group adopted a resolution calling on countries to ban destructive anti-satellite missile tests, reflecting increased international political support for the ban on such weapons.

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Commercial spy satellites play a crucial role in monitoring and collecting evidence regarding war crimes.

Since the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the use of these satellites has significantly increased. Here's how they contribute to documentation and investigation:

1. Monitoring Russian military movements: Spy satellites provide high-resolution photographs and radar images of Russian military movements, tracking military convoys and obtaining evidence of military activities.

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2. Identification of targets: They capture images of bombed public places, such as schools and hospitals, and help identify military units responsible for direct attacks on civilians.

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3. Support for international investigators: Data collected by these satellites is used by the International Criminal Court and the United Nations. Field investigators rely on this evidence for potential trials.

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These satellites serve not only as surveillance tools but also as guardians of truth in complex conflict situations. They document atrocities and seek justice for victims of war crimes.

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The Composante Spatiale Optique (CSO) is a series of three optical reconnaissance satellites part of the French MUSIS (Multinational Space-based Imaging System) armament program. Deployed between 2018 and 2022, these satellites succeed, with enhanced performance, the previous-generation Helios satellites. CSO 1 and CSO 2 are already in orbit and are used for observation capacity. In addition to this, France can also rely on electromagnetic listening satellites CERES for ground-emitted waves, as well as the two communication satellites Syracuse IV A and Syracuse IV B. These space capabilities are essential for national defense and security, enabling the collection of strategic information and secure communication.

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These satellites are often used in cooperation with other European countries such as Germany, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, and Switzerland, to enhance space surveillance and collective security. France continues to work on new space capabilities, including armament programs such as IRIS, CELESTE, and ARES, which are expected to be operational by 2028. These efforts aim to ensure sovereignty and mastery of space for the well-being of the nation and its allies.

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The Space Command (CDE), created in September 2019, plays a crucial role in defining future military space capabilities, managing military space programs, and fostering innovation. Here's an overview of our military space operations:

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1. Military Space Operations (OSM): These encompass all activities conducted by the Ministry of Armed Forces in, from, and towards space. The objective is to ensure the availability, safety, and security of national space capabilities. These operations contribute to territorial security, economic robustness, and population protection. They also include actions to protect our space assets and deter aggression.

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2. Space Operations Command and Control Center (C3OS): This operational command level manages military space operations. It plans and conducts operations in the domains of space awareness and space action. The C3OS collaborates with the National Center for Space Studies (CNES), the Planning and Operations Conduct Center (CPCO), as well as tactical units, government and commercial operators, and allies.

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3. Army Space Units: Grouped within an Air Space Operations Brigade (BAOS), these units perform missions to support national space capabilities, provide space support to operations, and enhance space situational awareness. They are essential to ensuring our freedom of appreciation, access, and action in space.

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The CDE is a key player in preserving our space sovereignty and our ability to act in this strategic environment.

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Cybersecurity in space is a crucial issue, as the deployment of space technology opens up new perspectives but also vulnerabilities.

Here are some points to consider:

1. Jamming and Identity Theft: Attackers often target services related to satellites rather than the satellites themselves.

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For example, internet services like ViaSat and Starlink in Ukraine recently experienced jamming and GPS spoofing attacks.

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These cyberattacks disrupted Starlink connections, endangering the flow of information, especially during conflict periods.

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2. Anti-Satellite Weapons (ASATs): While their range is limited, anti-satellite weapons do exist.

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China destroyed one of its own satellites in 2007 using a kinetic energy weapon attached to a ballistic missile.

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More recently, Russia has also been criticized for using anti-satellite weapons in November 2021.

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3. Emerging Threats: Besides ASATs, other threats are emerging, such as the use of lasers, jamming systems, and cyber threats against satellites and their ground networks.

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These threats are potentially more formidable than simply physically destroying a satellite in orbit.

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The cybersecurity of space systems is a constantly evolving field, requiring increased vigilance to protect our space infrastructures.

The growing integration of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) has a significant impact on the phenomenon of space militarization. Here are some key points to consider:

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1. Automation of Weapons: AI enables the development of autonomous weapons capable of making decisions without human intervention. This can accelerate the pace of military operations and create a new form of blitzkrieg warfare, where the adversary is overwhelmed and passive.

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2. Data Collection and Analysis: Advances in AI allow for the processing of vast amounts of data from sensors, satellites, and other sources. For example, machine learning algorithms can extract useful information from images and sounds collected by drones or satellites. This enhances combat readiness, intelligence, and targeting.

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3. Tactical Superiority: For modern armies, AI has become a priority defense issue. It offers opportunities to improve cyber defense methods, detect anomalies, and optimize military operations. However, it also raises ethical and operational challenges, particularly regarding human-machine collaboration and weapon system security.

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4. Hyperwarfare Race: The United States has launched numerous projects integrating AI into the military domain. Systems like ALPHA, which triumphed over a seasoned fighter pilot in simulated aerial combat, demonstrate AI's potential in military operations.

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AI is transforming how armed forces prepare for and conduct conflicts, and it is at the heart of space, cyber, and terrestrial militarization. It is essential to manage these technologies carefully to ensure their responsible and ethical use.

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In this era of space warfare, defense companies and startups play a crucial role. Here are some key points to consider:

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1. French Defense Space Strategy (SSD): France released the SSD in 2019, marking a crucial step in the evolution of its military posture. This document outlines France's vision of the future of defense space, addressing threats, risks, and capability ambitions to ensure space support for the armed forces. It also opens up the possibility of military actions in space and carries a new doctrine.

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2. French Space Industrial Model: The SSD encourages the French space industrial model to leverage opportunities in the New Space sector. This involves reflecting on the governance of space activities in France, with modernized relations between the Ministry of Armed Forces and the National Center for Space Studies (CNES).

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3. Space Data Supporting Combat Operations: Satellites from companies like Maxar provide indispensable information for military operations. For example, Maxar satellites played a crucial role in providing data to Ukrainian operations during the Ukraine conflict.

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In conclusion, C2 tools are valuable allies in addressing these complex challenges and ensuring security in space.

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Are wars beyond Earth possible? It's an open question.

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We are excited to provide this comprehensive overview and encourage you to explore further into the ever-evolving realm of space warfare. For any inquiries or collaboration opportunities, feel free to reach out to us at [email protected] .

Stay informed and inspired.

Warm regards,

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Jean KO?VOGUI

Newsletter Manager for AI, NewSpace, and Technology

Copernilabs, an innovative entity in AI, NewSpace, and technology. For more information and the latest updates, visit the Copernilabs website and connect with us on LinkedIn.