S&P500 heading down - long term view since 1955

S&P500 heading down - long term view since 1955

Technicians around the world have not really been surprised by the market dragging down sharply (see my post of June 15th 2015). And those who think that the current market rise is a bullish continuation of the former trend - think again.

I took a chart of the S&P500 since 1955 and drew two significant bearish divergences into it.

(1) is a huge bearish divergence which triggered the 2008 market collapse
(2) is what we are currently in. Still pretty divergent, yet not so strong as the first one.

What's for sure: we will see another slide down.
What's not so sure: the magnitude of that slide

Chances are very likely that the S&P500 will correct back to the neckline of the 2013 outbreak level (see my follow-up post on that topic) and then continue its very longterm uptrend. The trendline also indicates how long that will take.

As usual: keep your stops in place. Should the retest of the outbreak level fail, well, then better have your positions protected.

For those people interested in the SP%00, another analysis has been added on March 16. (Long term analysis of SP500)

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Philip York

Entrepreneur, Technologist, RO

8 年

Excellent, I think we're bearish enough to head up from here. Load up on the retest of the lows next week with a stop under the low of last Thursday. Let's see what the momentum says next week, but all looks on track.

Sanjay Khandelwal

Founder and CEO @ TradeWithTTO.com

8 年

I agree !! After a multi year bull run Dow has entered a corrective phase, which may last for sometime (maybe year(s)) of consolidation, with downside support at 14,000. See Dow Chart indicating divergence and a multi year trend crossover. https://image-store.slidesharecdn.com/203505e2-acea-4a9a-991b-abcb5397149d-large.png

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