Sown in Neglect, Reaped in Devastation: Unveiling the Political Seeds of Kenya's Droughts

Kenya's cracked earth, skeletal rivers, and empty bowls serve as a stark visual reminder of the country's perpetual struggle with hunger. This recurring crisis, exacerbated by the worst drought in decades, not only inflicts immeasurable suffering on millions of people but also exacts a substantial toll on the country's economy, amounting to a staggering 8% loss of GDP every five years . However, behind this arid narrative lies a concealed truth: Can we solely attribute this tragedy to the whims of climate change, or should we also hold accountable the hands of politicians covertly orchestrating this narrative?

This is not merely a tale of vanishing rain clouds; it is a saga marred by a history of dubious land management, inequitable resource allocation, and politically motivated negligence, all of which have laid bare Kenya's vulnerabilities, akin to fault lines in a desolate landscape. Today, we delve beneath the surface to expose the intricate web of human-political factors that have transformed what could have been a manageable drought into a raging inferno, leaving the lives of millions scorched in its wake.

In Kenya, as in many other parts of the world, the devastating effects of climate change have raised a pressing question: who should be held accountable for the recurring droughts that afflict our nation? Unfortunately, this question merely deflects attention from the harsh reality. While it is true that droughts and floods can be considered natural phenomena, it is our human actions that have disrupted their supposed "naturalness". Through reckless deforestation, unsustainable land practices, and a lamentable lack of political will to address these issues, we have left an enduring impact on our arid land, exacerbating the severity of droughts.

Unfortunately, the burden of this crisis falls disproportionately on the most vulnerable members of our society. In 2022, the nation experienced its most severe drought, resulting in over 4 million people in destitute and impoverished regions enduring chronic starvation. These devastating droughts mercilessly rob them of their crops, deplete their once-abundant water sources, and silence their laughter. Witnessing emaciated children with hollow cheeks chasing swirling dust storms, desperate mothers clutching empty containers, and wise elders whispering about the long-awaited rains that never seem to come, it becomes painfully evident that these innocent individuals are unjustly paying the price for the sins they did not commit.

The majority of droughts are blamed on human actions, divine retribution, or a combination of the two. Many affected communities continue to believe that religious practices and prayers can provide solutions. President Ruto (Figure 1 ), the country's head of state, recently joined this path, leading a group of constituents in "prayer for the end of droughts ."

This deeply ingrained perspective has unintended consequences, such as the potential reinforcement of caste hierarchies and the status quo of drought management, which leaves no room for flexibility. And questions linger beneath the fervent whispers of hope. Is faith alone enough to quench the parched earth? Or are concrete actions, such as sustainable land management and climate mitigation efforts, the missing piece in the puzzle?

Kenya's story is marred by an unrelenting drought. It is not a mere chapter in its history, but a haunting refrain that has echoed through the centuries. The drought cycle in Kenya dates back to more than three decades ago. In 1975, widespread drought affected 16 000 people, in 1977 it was 20 000 people affected, in 1980, 40 000 people suffered the effects of drought, and in 1983/84 it hit over 200 000 people. In 1991/92 in Arid and Semi-Arid Districts of North Eastern Kenya, the Rift Valley, and Eastern and Coastal Provinces, 1.5 million people were affected by drought.

Among this grim litany of droughts, the year 1997/1998 droughts that culminated in 2000 stand out as a chilling punctuation mark. This particular drought hailed as the "worst in 60 years," plunged over 48% of rural Kenyans into the abyss of chronic poverty . It was a period that laid bare the nation's vulnerability, not only to the parched grip of nature but also to the destabilizing tremors of man-made disasters. The scars of that year continue to haunt Kenya, a painful reminder of the urgent need for action and resilience in the face of an unforgiving climate.

From this crucible emerged the National Disaster Operation Centre (NDOC), which was supposed to be a beacon of hope in monitoring and coordinating disaster response. However, the NDOC, like a weak fledgling bird, failed to have a comprehensive disaster risk management (DRM) policy. This left Kenya ill-equipped to effectively prevent and mitigate future crises. Despite the lack of preparation, there was a glimpse of international solidarity amidst the chaos.

In July 2000, the Government of Kenya (GOK), together with the United Nations (UN), bilateral partners, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), launched a consolidated appeal for assistance. Although donors responded swiftly, it was later acknowledged by the UN Special Coordinator for the Horn of Africa that this quick action only managed to avert a wider food insecurity crisis in 2000. By November of that year, approximately 3.2 million vulnerable Kenyans were receiving vital food assistance.

By 2002, former and late President Mwai Kibaki declared a national disaster in drought-stricken parts of Kenya, calling for nearly $100 million. He said,

"If the short rains expected in October-December fail, the country will experience a more severe food shortage, and up to 4.3 million Kenyans - including 1.5 million school children - will require food assistance for another six months," President Kibaki.

In 2004, 3 million people were in dire need of relief aid for eight months from August 2004 to March 2005 due to widespread drought. The drought in 2008 affected 1.4 million people. The drought in Kenya in 2007 had severe consequences, exacerbating existing challenges and creating a complex humanitarian crisis. The shortage of water and food resources led to widespread food insecurity and malnutrition, impacting vulnerable populations and livestock alike. In addition to these direct effects, the political landscape worsened the situation. The political response to the drought was marked by inefficiencies, mismanagement, and inadequate allocation of resources, hindering effective relief efforts.

Political instability and inadequate governance further hindered aid distribution, worsening the suffering of affected communities. This combination of environmental stressors and political shortcomings resulted in increased social tensions, with instances of violence occurring as communities competed for dwindling resources. The intricate relationship between drought and politics emphasized the importance of strong governance and proactive policies in reducing the impact of environmental crises on vulnerable populations in Kenya during 2007.

In late 2009 and early 2010, a shocking 10 million people were pushed to the edge of starvation as harvests miserably failed due to a catastrophic drought. The Crisis Response Centre of the Ministry for Special Programmes haughtily declared that contingency measures were supposedly put into action upon receiving drought forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department in 2010. However, the subsequent drought in 2011 exposed the glaring political incompetence in the region, where the Institute of Security Studies found the government shamelessly struggled to deliver the desperately needed food to the drought-stricken areas promptly.

In January 2021, alarm bells were ringing loud and clear. Seasonal forecasts predicted below-average MAM 2021 rains due to heightened La Ni?a risks. The Kenya Food Security Steering Group warned that approximately 1.4 million Kenyans in arid and semi-arid areas, already facing dire circumstances, would be pushed into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse by February – a staggering 93% increase from the previous year. Even more harrowing, projections indicated a dramatic escalation by mid-2021, with an estimated 700,000 additional people plunging into crisis, bringing the total to a gut-wrenching 2.1 million.

Despite having access to important information about the upcoming food crisis, there was a tragic delay in taking the necessary political steps to address the situation. It was only later, when the drought risks became more evident, that these actions were finally put into place. Looking ahead to 2022, the United Nations, the Government of Kenya, and humanitarian partners in Kenya were requesting $472.6 million to aid the 4.3 million individuals impacted by the drought in 2023. This support is meant to supplement the response led by the government, as the crisis is predicted to worsen.

The Deputy President of Kenya said:

“We are here today in Garissa to bring a spotlight to the suffering being endured by Kenyans as a result of the global climate crisis. Our resources cannot be sufficient to address the challenges of climate change. Therefore, the Government is appealing for assistance to address the resource gap in implementing drought interventions to minimise losses and catastrophic farming yields.”

From the anecdotal narratives swirling within the climate-induced vortex of droughts in Kenya, several compelling insights emerge, beckoning for focused ideation and decisive action, amidst the despair, a glimmer of hope emerges. Early warning systems are being implemented, empowering communities to anticipate and prepare for dry spells. This shift from crisis response to proactive resilience holds immense promise. Building drought-resistant crops, diversifying livelihoods, and investing in sustainable water management are not mere fantasies; they are the essential tools to break the cycle of suffering.

The journey towards a drought-resilient Kenya requires more than just infrastructure and technology. It demands political will, a deep commitment to environmental stewardship, and a decisive shift from short-term fixes to long-term solutions. The voices of the mothers clutching empty bowls, the children chasing dust storms, and the elders whispering about the rain that never comes must be heard. Their stories are not just data points; they are a rallying cry, a desperate plea for a future where drought does not dictate the fate of millions.

Kenya's story is not solely about a parched earth; it is about the indomitable human spirit. It is about resilience, drawing lessons from the past, and constructing a future where the empty bowls are replaced with abundance, and the whispers of rain transform into the triumphant symphony of a land that has finally learned to flourish, even in the face of drought.