Sovereign International Weekly Market Report
Dollar rebound continues as inflation fears return to markets
Evidence continues to accumulate that inflation worldwide is far from tamed, and that increases in rates so far have been inadequate to the task of bringing it back to target.
Inflation data is again surprising to the upside, economic growth is rebounding worldwide and labour markets remain very tight. In this context, a 6% handle in terminal rates remains a distinct possibility, and not just in the US. Markets are not taking it well. Bonds and stocks are again falling together, and the dollar is rallying on the back of rising expectations for Federal Reserve rates and its status as a safe-haven. The dollar rallied strongly against all G10 currencies, and most major emerging market ones.
This week, attention will be focused on key economic data coming out later in the week, particularly out of the Eurozone. The global PMIs of economic activity will be out on Friday, though this should move little from the preliminary numbers already released. The day before, a critical flash inflation report out of the Eurozone for the month of February. Another upward surprise here may propel market pricing of the Eurozone terminal rate past the 4% level, which we think is still modest considering the task at hand for the ECB. We would expect that to buoy the euro back towards the top of the recent range.
GBP
Last week’s UK PMIs of business activity provided a strong positive surprise, swinging back squarely towards expansion for the first time in eight months and directly contradicting the recent recession narrative. While sterling lost ground against the US dollar, as did every other G10 currency, it managed to end up near the top of the performance rankings.
Sentiment seems so bearish on the pound that it's hard to see who the next seller will be, and there is also some optimism in the air around talks to finalise a Brexit agreement on trade arrangements with Northern Ireland with the European Union. There isn't much on the docket this week in the UK, so expect the pound to trade off events elsewhere.
EUR
Data flow out of the Eurozone last week should have put to bed any notions that the European Central Bank is near the end of the hiking cycle. The PMIs of economic activity for February surprised squarely to the upside and effectively ended any possibility of a Eurozone recession, in our view. Further, the inflation report was revised upwards, both in its core and headline components.
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This week we expect more of the same, with a flash prices report that will show, again, no sign of a downward trend in core inflation. The ECB, as we expected, is flagging increasingly the stickiness of this key inflation sub index as a source of concern and justification for its hawkish rhetoric. We expect this to put a floor under the common currency soon.
USD
Economic data out of the US confirmed that the economy is still firing on all cylinders. Data on the housing market and business and consumer sentiment all surprised to the upside. More importantly, so did the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, which has erased any sign of a downward trend and actually appears to be on the rebound.
There isn't much on the calendar in the US this week, and markets are focusing on the next critical data point in the week following, the labour market report for February. Therefore, speeches from Federal Reserve officials will be in focus this week. We expect most communications to strike a hawkish tone once again, keeping the door open to at least three more 25bp rate hikes from the FOMC at the next three policy meetings in March, May and June.
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