Southern Iran: a preview of climate-induced depopulation

Good 纽约时报 article on how water-deprived Iran's SE corner (Sistine and Bluchestan province) is becoming. Never an easy place to live WRT water, Iran's southern-most provinces are in danger of running completely out of water:

Sistan and Baluchistan, where Iranian lawmakers warn the water will run out altogether within three months, might sound like an extreme case. But other regions are not far behind. Drought is forcing water cuts in the capital, Tehran, shrinking Lake Urmia, the largest saltwater lake in the Middle East, and the livelihoods that came with it, and stoking mass migration from Iran’s countryside to its cities.

Such conditions begin the trek to the cities -- a shift that accomplishes almost nothing in the long-run. When that doesn't work, people move to the next country over. And when that fails to provide relief, the northward (or poleward) migration begins.

Members of Iran’s parliament said in an?open letter?last week that Sistan and Baluchistan’s water reserves would be exhausted by mid-September, leaving the provincial population of about two million with little choice but to leave.

Iran's southern provinces fall within the 30th northern parallel, meaning they lie within that equatorially-centric band that I dub "Middle Earth" in America's New Map (extending 30 degrees north and south of the equator). It is largely within this band that we'll see large swaths of territory basically become unlivable -- unless vast resources are applied there. Environmental unlivability eventually becomes economic unlivability, which eventually becomes political unlivability. This will fuel a buildup of political bankruptcy within Iran.

Long neglected by the government, the inhabitants of Sistan and Baluchistan were quick to join the antigovernment?protests?that erupted across Iran last September after the death in police custody of a young woman. Though demonstrations in the province were?violently suppressed, they outlasted protests in other regions.

All these water issues creates tensions with upstream neighbors (Turkey, Afghanistan), and it will only get worse with time:

Iranian groundwater and wetlands are irreversibly depleted, water experts say. Because of climate change, Iran can expect hotter temperatures and longer dry spells, as well as a greater risk of destructive floods.

Climate change has basically already won in southern Iran -- this along the 27th parallel that, over the course of history, has yielded an ideal environmental niche for humans (most comfortable climate, most fertile land), which is why so much of the world's population is centered along that band.

That niche is in the process of being destroyed:

Seven years ago, Mohammad Ehsani, a filmmaker, interviewed farmers, herders and others who lived around the once-fertile Hamoun wetlands for a documentary, “Once Hamoun.” It shows a landscape full of ancient history and modern decay: hut-like homes sitting in the dust where a lake used to be; camels and sheep drinking from dribbles of rainwater, all the moisture their owners could find; men marooned at home for lack of fish or other employment.

When Mr. Ehsani returned for a visit four months ago, it was much worse, he said. In 2016, residents wanted to stay on their land despite the challenges. Now “you look at their eyes and you see agony,” he said. “Villages are emptying out, one after the other.”

“The region,” he added, “is destroyed.”

To the cities, then the next country over, and then toward the poles. This is Gaia Vince 's Nomad Century unfolding. The book is an excellent read and is repeatedly cited in America's New Map.