South East Asia's heatwaves. The case of air-cons, power cuts, and climate adaptation.

More heatwaves, more aircon. It's now a matter of survival. Welcome to one of the most profitable businesses of the 21st century: Heatwave Climate Adaptation.

Until last month, we referred to the IPCC, detailing that South-East Asia is among the regions hardest hit by climate change, and must prioritize climate adaptation.

Well in 2024, the region has suffered more than ever, making these predictions a reality.

While heatwaves might be one of the most lethal risks for the region’s citizens, the HVAC market is skyrocketing and expected to grow from $18.7 billion in 2021 to $32.8 billion by 2030.

The vicious heating cycle in South East Asia

In South East Asia & India, the top 20 cities are planning for 50 days of lethal heat waves per year.

According to the IEA, electricity consumption for ACs in ASEAN countries skyrocketed 7.5 times from 1990 to 2017 - more than South Korea's total household electricity use.

If current policies continue, cooling will account for nearly 20% of total electricity use and 30% of peak demand in the region by 2040, requiring an additional 200 GW of power capacity - equivalent to Germany's total (IEA).

The problem of the increasing energy demand for cooling is exacerbated by the “Vicious Cooling Cycle” as shown below.

Higher temperatures lead to more AC and refrigerators needed, and due to this more greenhouse gas emissions will be emitted due to the energy and HFCs needed in these systems, which leads to more climate change, and higher temperatures. And the cycle continues.

Summer of Love.

The Health Ministry of Thailand said late on April 24 that 30 people had died from heatstroke between Jan 1 and April 17, compared with 37 in the whole year of 2023.

The Philippines’ state weather service said the heat index in 38 cities and municipalities, including Manila, would be in the “danger” zone on April 25 – feeling like 42 deg C to 51 deg C.

Meanwhile, warmer temperatures in Southeast Asia's most populated nation of Indonesia are driving a surge in cases of dengue fever, a mosquito-borne infection, with cases more than doubling to 35,000 from 15,000 a year earlier, the health ministry has said.

Lethal heatwaves, not only in Asia...

In the summer of 2023, in Phoenix, Arizona, a middle-class 70-year-old woman miscalculated the payment of her electricity bill, paying $50 instead of $51, missing $1. Her electricity was cut off the same day by the power company’s late payment response, and unable to withstand the heat, a few hours later, she died.

In the Summer of 2019, in the Netherlands during a heatwave, more than 2900 elderly people died within only ONE WEEK. 93% of them were not equipped with aircon.

One of the misconceptions about heatwaves and death is that this is only an unsheltered or homeless person’s problem. In reality, heat is impacting all of us; not only Africa, not only Asia: all of us.

The climate predictions give us a 1/20 chance of hitting +3 degrees by 2050, at this rate not having a very strong and reliable is — literally — playing with fire. Would you board a plane if it has a 1/20 chance of crashing?

So, how does a heatwave kill you?

Heat doesn’t affect all of us the same, age, health and location are all factors that can play a big role. Here are the few factors involved in being killed by a heatwave:

1. Temperature illusion: Aka “mean radiant temperature”, all the radiations that hit your body from all sides and it’s the “heat load” that your body experiences. It is very different from what you get from a thermometer which would tell you the air temperature because it incorporates short wave radiation, which is essentially the direct sunlight. Example: While the temperature in Phoenix could be 40 degrees, the mean radiant (perceived temperature) is 56, which is what’s lethal.
2. Dehydration: During prolonged heat exposure, the human body can become dehydrated and lose its ability to sweat, which is how the body cools itself. As our body temperature rises, proteins and membranes around cells, especially in the brain begin to fail; Organs malfunction, and heart muscles begin to break down. And that can stress our body until it causes one or more organs to fail, leading to illness or even death.
3. Wet Bulb danger: High wet-bulb temperatures are dangerous because humans lose around 80% of heat through sweating, so when both humidity and air temperature are high it becomes harder to shed excess heat. Your body can’t sweat, your organs fail, you die.

An adaptation of our buildings with HVAC systems seems to be a matter of life or death.

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are vital for buildings, but their energy use has major climate impacts.

Innovations are needed in the HVAC space:

The good news is the HVAC industry is innovating sustainable solutions powered by renewable energy and smart tech. Here are some of the most promising:

1. Energy Efficiency: Rising energy costs and environmental concerns are driving the adoption of high-efficiency HVAC systems. This includes:

• Variable Speed Drives (VSDs): VSDs adjust fan speed based on cooling/heating needs, reducing energy consumption.
• Inverter Technology: Inverters regulate compressor speed for precise temperature control and lower energy use.
• Heat Recovery Ventilation (HRV): HRVs capture heat from exhaust air to preheat incoming fresh air, minimizing the energy needed for heating.

2. Smart HVAC Systems: Integrating HVAC with smart home technologies allows for:

• Remote Control: Control temperature and monitor system performance from anywhere with a smartphone app.
• Automated Scheduling: Systems can learn user preferences and adjust settings for optimal comfort and efficiency.
• Zoning Systems: Create customized temperature zones within a building, reducing unnecessary energy use in unoccupied areas.

3. Renewable Energy Integration: Integrating renewable energy sources with HVAC systems is gaining traction:

• Solar-powered HVAC: Rooftop solar panels can generate electricity to power air conditioners and heat pumps.
• Geothermal Heat Pumps: These systems leverage the earth's constant temperature for highly efficient heating and cooling.

4. Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Focus:? There's a growing emphasis on improving indoor air quality especially given SEA countries’ rising air pollution issue:

• Advanced Filtration Systems: These systems remove allergens, dust, and pollutants from the air, improving occupant health.
• Air Purification Technologies: Technologies like ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) can neutralize viruses and bacteria in the air.

In addition, governments all over the board are introducing regulations related to energy efficiency and sustainability in the built environment such as Thailand’s Building Energy Code and its associated regulations which include energy efficiency requirements for new buildings. Some South East Asian countries have also introduced financial incentives such as Malaysia which introduced The Green Building Index (GBI) program that provides tax breaks and rebates for buildings achieving high GBI ratings.

The opportunities for HVAC are exciting!

The HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) market in Asia is experiencing explosive growth, fueled by factors like rising disposable income, urbanization, and scorching temperatures. This surge in demand presents a wealth of business opportunities for innovative startups in the region.

Ready to explore the landscape? This market map provides a visual representation of some exciting players and emerging trends in the HVAC startup ecosystem.?Enjoy!

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