South African Agriculture Weekly Update – Week 8 of 2025: What Happens if AGOA is Not Renewed? The Future of South African Citrus Exports

This is our South African Agriculture Weekly Update for Week 8 of 2025.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been a cornerstone of South Africa’s citrus trade with the United States, allowing duty-free access for citrus and other agricultural products. However, AGOA is set to expire in September 2025, raising concerns about potential tariffs, market access, and the long-term impact on South African citrus exports.

While some fear that losing AGOA would shut down citrus exports to the US, the reality is different. South Africa can still export citrus, but US buyers will have to pay import tariffs, which could make the fruit less competitive in the market.

In this newsletter, we break down the facts: What does AGOA’s expiration mean for South African citrus? Will tariffs impact exports? What are the biggest trade challenges ahead?

What is AGOA and Why Does It Matter?

AGOA is a non-reciprocal trade agreement that provides duty-free access for exports from 32 Sub-Saharan African countries, including South Africa, to the United States. The agreement covers over 7,000 products, with 800 agricultural goods benefiting from tariff exemptions.

For South Africa, AGOA has been especially important in boosting citrus exports, particularly soft citrus. Over the past two decades, the agreement has helped expand market access, increase sales, and strengthen South Africa’s position in the global citrus trade.

Will South African Citrus Still Be Exported to the US Without AGOA?

Yes. If AGOA expires, South Africa will still be able to export citrus to the US, but it will be subject to import tariffs. This does not mean citrus exports will stop—it simply means prices for US consumers will rise slightly.

• Current Situation: Under AGOA, South African citrus enters the US duty-free.
• Without AGOA: Citrus imports from South Africa will be taxed under the US Harmonized Tariff Schedule, with a 2.1 percent tariff applied.
• Who Pays the Tariff? The US importer, not the South African exporter, will cover the tariff, which will then be passed on to retailers and consumers.

How Much More Will US Consumers Pay?

• In 2024, South Africa exported 102 million kilograms of citrus to the US, valued at R1.7 billion.
• Without AGOA, the additional tariff cost would be around R35-36 million.
• This equates to a 2.1 percent increase in the retail price.

For example, if a box of South African citrus currently costs $10, the price would increase to around $10.21—a relatively small change that may not impact demand significantly.

Trade Barriers: Phytosanitary Regulations Remain a Challenge

While AGOA’s potential expiration is a major concern, South African citrus already faces strict phytosanitary regulations that limit exports.

• Only citrus from the Western Cape and Northern Cape is allowed to enter the US due to Citrus Black Spot (CBS) restrictions.
• South Africa has requested regulatory alignment with other citrus-exporting nations since 2011, but the US has not approved these requests.
• Meanwhile, the US has granted market access to countries such as China, Australia, Uruguay, and Argentina, despite similar CBS concerns.

Without AGOA, navigating these existing trade barriers will become even more critical for South African exporters.

Will AGOA Be Renewed? The Political Landscape

The renewal of AGOA is not guaranteed. There are political tensions between South Africa and the United States, and upcoming US elections could impact trade decisions.

• If Donald Trump returns to office, he could impose higher tariffs on South African products, making trade even more challenging.
• If AGOA is not renewed, South African policymakers and trade negotiators will need to push for alternative trade agreements to protect market access.

Final Takeaways: What Should South African Exporters Do?

1. South Africa will still be able to export citrus to the US, even if AGOA is not renewed.
2. A 2.1 percent tariff will increase the cost for US consumers, but it is unlikely to significantly disrupt demand.
3. Existing trade barriers, such as phytosanitary regulations, remain a bigger challenge for South African citrus exports.
4. The industry must stay informed and advocate for continued preferential trade agreements to ensure market stability.

As the September 2025 AGOA deadline approaches, it is crucial for farmers, exporters, and stakeholders to monitor trade negotiations and prepare for possible shifts in global citrus trade.

For more insights and analysis, watch this week’s South African Agriculture Weekly Update here:

Read more on:

Market Accesss & Tade Matters SA – USA: The AGOA

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