South Africa: US administration change highlights foreign policy risks and options for SA

• Would the country be able to capitalise on the GNU momentum, critical resources and South-African born Musk and what would the government do to avoid deterioration of relations with the US

South Africa has asserted its neutrality with respect to global foreign policy on issues such as the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza but its self-proclaimed non-alignment status has often been questioned, to the point that a bipartisan bill in the US Congress earlier this year proposed a deep re-evaluation of the bilateral ties with South Africa and required the US government to provide a detailed determination regarding whether South Africa's actions undermine US national security or foreign policy interests. It seems very likely that South Africa's dubious foreign policy stance will come under more stringent scrutiny after the change of the administration in the US under president-elect Donald Trump, whose tipped appointments at the key foreign policy, national security and UN ambassador roles are clearly on the hawkish side. This could have potentially negative consequences that extend beyond the termination of AGOA benefits for South Africa. Conversely, the new South African government could use the change in the US to leverage its critical mineral resources and geopolitical positioning to solidify itself as a Western ally.

Controversial position on Israel and Iran

South Africa is one of the two largest economies on the continent and arguably the most industrialised, which has been praised for its democratic institutions and the landmark work of its first democratic president Nelson Mandela who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993. Thirty years later, the US is questioning whether South Africa is a threat to its national security and foreign policy interests. "… it is clear to me that the ANC of today is no longer the party of Nelson Mandela and I am greatly concerned with South Africa's alignment with China and Russia and embracement of Hamas in the wake of the devastating October 7th attacks," Rep. John James said at the end of March after the bill passed the US House Foreign Affairs Committee. "South African officials have made a miscalculation by aligning themselves with Russia and China. It is in our national security interests for the United States to review our relationships with nations that may not share our values and align themselves with such actors. My hope is that they choose otherwise," Rep. Jared Moskowitz added.

The issue came to the front as a result of non-aligned South Africa pursuing a case at the ICJ against Israel, accusing it in genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza. The ICJ delivered a ruling in July which declared Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory unlawful and that it amounted to an illegal annexation. According to the ICJ, Israel's actions include forcible transfer, racial discrimination and segregation or apartheid, and a violation of the right to self-determination of the Palestinian people. A total of 14 countries including Belgium, Egypt, Ireland, Cuba, Spain and Turkey among others have expressed their intention to join the case in support of South Africa.

While the Palestinian cause for South Africa, and particularly for the ANC, is a long-standing noble position where a parallel is drawn with black South Africans during the apartheid, the potential resulting isolation of the state of Israel at the UN may have irreversible consequences for global peace. This is why South Africa's work against Israel on this front may pose a considerable concern for the US.

This is especially so, considering that a position against Israel in the Middle East conflict would clearly strengthen the position of Iran, Israel being the major deterrent against the authoritarian regime in Iran. South African minister of international relations Naledi Pandor has been vocal and outspoken about the atrocities committed by Israel in Gaza and has confirmed communicating with since killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh immediately after the attacks (although refuted by government, Pandor confirmed it herself). However, she famously declined to say whether the Iranian regime was authoritarian or not. "I don't know whether they are an authoritarian regime … I don't have that definition in my logbook," she responded to a question during an event in Washington, DC in March.

Subsequent to that, Pandor penned an article published in the UK media in which she detailed how "seeking to bring South Africa to its knees almost amounts to self-sabotage for the US." The minister noted that South Africa is the biggest source of FDI into USA on the continent, the biggest buyer of US goods in sub-Saharan Africa and, by a significant margin, the biggest exporter to the US in Africa. The minister also thought that South Africa was important for the US with 22 South African companies employing 6,900 people on the US market. South Africa was a gateway to the continent, she alleged, and cutting it out of AGOA would have repercussion for the region, undermining regional integration and value chains. Finally, South Africa supplied 12 out of 50 scarce minerals in the US.

Russia and China

The ANC's view of a multi-polar world, includes cooperation with Russia, China, India and Brazil in the BRICS, where the group of nations also admitted Iran in January this year. The BRICS held a largely publicized conference in Russia last month in a bid to foster economic ties. While South Africa can hardly be accused of trading with China (and Russia for that matter), which is its single largest export partner, it is also cooperating in the military field. Soon after the Russian ship Lady R scandal broke out last year, in which South Africa was accused of exporting weapons to Russia to supply its war in Ukraine, the country held a military exercise hosting Chinese and Russian vessels in its waters off the coast of KwaZulu-Natal on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. The government said this had been planned for a long time but it still did not go down well against the string of events which showed an active rather than a non-aligned position on Russia.

South Africa has potential leverages

Although South Africa's positions and actions have been contentious, the country may also get a large opportunity to make a smart move, taking advantage of the changes in the US. The African continent has not been high on the US agenda in recent years. However, an allegedly transactional US president who is intent on consolidating the country's position on the global stage against adversaries such as China and Iran could become more interested in the African continent. South Africa has a number of points it can use in its advantage and ultimately successfully leverage for stronger economic and political ties with the US.

• The new government of national unity (GNU) - this is a coalition of Mandela's ANC and a number of opposition parties, the most important of which is the DA. The coalition has been touted as a great success, especially for those who are involved in the cabinet. A so-called unity government is unprecedented since the fall of the apartheid in 1994. The ANC is suddenly not the only voice in the government (although it is still the dominant one) and the DA has a very different view on foreign policy issues. The GNU could argue that its policies have shifted and it is not the ANC view of the world that is in play. In addition, the coalition government is predicted to remain in place for its full term, despite misalignments here and there. Essentially, the partners have no interest in breaking the alliance which seems beneficial for both main parties.
• Energy crisis - South Africa needs massive investments in energy generation and transmission to resolve the major crisis that has caused extensive power shortages in the past four years which have culminated into major blackouts last year, crippling the economy and bringing it to an almost complete standstill. At the same time, South Africa has committed to reduce the carbon footprint of its economy. Its power utility Eskom is one of the largest global emitters relying almost entirely on coal for the generation of energy. South Africa has embarked on a strategy to procure massive amounts of renewable energy capacities but has not excluded the development of nuclear capacities either. South Africa is the only country on the continent which is operating a nuclear power plant. Russia has proposed a plan to build the required nuclear capacity for South Africa but former president Jacob Zuma was unable to go forward with this plan. It will require significant investment and there is a major opposition from environmental organisations. However, the ANC has still not dropped the idea to build additional nuclear capacity useful as a secure baseline energy complemented by the renewable energy capacities that will be developed simultaneously. The US has strong and innovative nuclear reactor options that could rival the Russian project if there is political will in the government.
• Deal-making president - Trump is arguably the transactional president, where he was able to succeed in bringing Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, closer to Israel after decades of isolation through the so-called Abraham Accords. The president-elect has declared multiple times that he will bring an end to the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. In this process, there could be space for countries such as South Africa who are officially considered in the Western camp (at least for now) but who are also dealing with the authoritarian regimes in Russia, Iran and China. Trump's unwavering support for Israel and reported pledges to double down on sanctions against Iran could be instrumental in the de-escalation of the tensions between Israel and Iran. A potentially strong US stance could also dissuade middle-ground countries such as South Africa from engaging in actions favouring Russia, Iran and China.
• Critical minerals - the US needs critical minerals to power its economy and supply industries such as defence, renewable energy and consumer electronics. Some of these minerals are found in South Africa, which is a major producer of PGMs (platinum, palladium, rhodium, and iridium) used for catalytic converters, fuel cells, LCD screens and other. The country has solid deposits of nickel, copper, rare earther elements, lithium and others which could also be valuable in relations with the US.
• G-20 - South Africa could leverage its chairmanship of the G-20 next year and is followed up by the US in this role. President Ramaphosa has highlighted this fact in his congratulatory statement to president-elect Donald Trump, suggesting that Ramaphosa is focused on this opportunity to highlight the African case.
• Elon Musk - The South African-born billionaire's direct involvement in the new US administration could be positive for South Africa. Even the returning South African ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, said as much this week. In September, Musk discussed with president Ramaphosa the provision of Starlink services for government and hospitals as well as for the private sector in remote areas. Ramaphosa's spokesman Vincent Magwenya reportedly said that the chat was not only about Starlink but other investments that could include Tesla and Space X. Musk has previously answered a question on X about why Tesla has not launched its vehicles in South Africa yet. He explained that import duties are super high to protect the domestic industry and that it did not make sense for Tesla, given that electric cars are not locally made. Against the backdrop of the most recent talks with Ramaphosa this may change in favour of investments in South Africa.

It remains to be seen whether South Africa will manage to leverage any of these to advance its geopolitical positioning and investments in the economy, or in fact, is determined a threat to US national security and sidelined at best. In any case, the non-aligned stance is problematic and will have to be addressed but the government would also need to consolidate further its position domestically. For the time being, confidence seems to be rallying on the initial success of the GNU and the public support for the coalition government. However, it is not without challenge that the GNU is breezing through. Contentious issues between coalition partners include the NHI, the BELA and the controversial foreign policy issues and others could surface as well.

However, it is a greater challenge for the ANC to manage internal opposition to the GNU. The GNU will be tested come the 2026 local government elections where parties will be competing against each other, and then at the 2027 ANC National Conference which will elect the next ANC president. Internal elections in the ANC have always been dramatic and support for the ANC's partnerships in the GNU will certainly be tested at that time. The former ANC faction supporting the former president Jacob Zuma, the MK party, is the third largest party in parliament and is currently absorbing parts of Julius Malema's EFF. Fortunately, the ANC-MK-EFF doomsday coalition was avoided at the 2024 elections thanks to the DA opting to take the offer for the GNU but not everyone within the ANC supported this option.