South Africa at the crossroad.

Finding a coalition compromise in South Africa, following the seismic election results, is going to prove an extremely difficult task. It will call for the highest quality of statesmanship. The answer might be facilitating a CODESA-like interim government of national unity.

Some suggest South Africa's inevitable 'coalition-scenario', following a devastating election result for Ramaphosa's ANC, will be between populism and pragmatism. The ANC has been unable to gain a workable majority in the three most populous and prosperous provinces; the Western Cape, Gauteng and Kwazulu/Natal.

'Populism' would be if the ANC were to pander to the radical socialist 'left', to form a government - Zuma's new MK, and/or Malema's EFF. 'Pragmatism' would be to do a deal with the centre-right Democratic Alliance. In the populist scenario Ramaphosa will inevitably have to go. In the pragmatic scenario the ANC might have to face a fundamental split.

Meanwhile South Africa stands on the brink - the opportunists will be doing their damnedest to exploit the hiatus - a vision of a deeper possibility is now critical.

Interim government of national unity

That is why I believe there could be sufficient goodwill to respond to a call for an interim government of national unity that will oversea a renewed national conventional of holistic reconstruction.

When he became President, following the sacking of President Jacob Zuma, I suggested that Cyril Ramaphosa should initiate such a convention. Yes, I acknowledged, South Africa did already have a fine constitution, but it was drafted with an idealistic humanistic and egalitarian stance that did not fully take into account the needs and priorities of the complex and evolutionary nature of South African society in its implementation.?See:

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/we-really-all-rainbow-nations-evolutionary-process-claudius-van-wyk/

Strategy for holistic national reconstruction

Since this excellent constitution already exists, the outcome of such a convention would rather be to develop a deeply strategy of holistic national reconstruction. In this respect whilst Nelson Mandela’s RDP could still serve as a model, this strategy must rather identify and address the nature of systemic process relative to South Africa’s current dynamics.

Managing complexity

Prof. Emeritus Mittleton-Kelly from the London School of Economics Complexity Research Group shows that when dealing with a complex challenge, three essential requirements must be addressed.

*?The first requirement is that the multidimensionality of the problem space needs to be identified - that must include all the dynamics that could influence the process. Clearly, any rigid ideological stance would only serve to compromise the identification of all the relevant dynamics in this rapidly changing world.

* The second requirement is that an enabling environment needs to be created where all the relevant players can participate generatively. So, a deep purpose and outcome of the process needs to be identified that will be flexible and broad enough to accommodate the inevitable divergent opinions and positions in the process. Fortunately, there already exist a number of worthy initiatives, based on goodwill, in the country that could be included in a such an emergent process.

* The third requirement is that of ‘engaging the field of possibilities’ - this requires sometimes thinking completely out of the box - reimagining opportunities and novel approaches to so many seemingly intractable problems.

Sustainability

And since this will all be about governance it will be good to establish the key criteria. Undoubtedly, we need to look at the sustaining capacity of the natural environment. Apart from pending human conflict this is the greatest challenge to face the world’s leadership - South Africa is no exception. What is the reality of the environmental condition, it’s available resources, it’s capacity to replenish, its long-term health - it all about a deep sustainability that ought to transcend sectional interests.

Real human needs

Given that careful identification how are our resources matched to real human needs? What will be the relevant policies and practices? What policies will constrain human activities from negative impact on human and natural capital? How will we incentivise those that add genuine value to humanity and to nature? See:?https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/real-third-economic-way-claudius-van-wyk/

Human capital

But then there’s the questions of the optimisation of human capital - South Africa’s paucity of capacity. It’s all about the development and deployment of skills and competencies.?How do we audit our skills capacity relative to optimising the opportunities presented, and then educate and develop what is required as an on-going adaptation? Maybe even more importantly in the longer run, how do we liberate creativity in face of automation and artificial intelligence of the fourth industrial revolution to stimulate sustainable enterprise?

National culture

Then we need to address our national culture. What are the national values - how could we articulate and socially embed standards for private and public conduct beyond their regulation by law - what kind of society do we want as a ‘rainbow nation’??How do we inculcate respect for law, not only because we trust the law-givers, but also because we understand the positive intention, the rationale of the law?

Understandable narrative

The concept of ‘Salutogenesis’ - the source of individual and social wellbeing - suggests that we need ‘comprehensibility’ (society needs understanding) - we need manageability (society needs to be able to act on it) - we need meaningfulness (society needs to accept its important and significance). Can the desired culture be one that generates a healthy society, but with a redefined notion of ‘wellbeing’ to include not only physical health, but also mental, moral, and spiritual health. And can we comprehend and quantify the positive potential impact on an economy of wellbeing and meaning?

Vision

Surely a nation wants an ultimate vision - one that identifies possibilities for South Africa when holistically optimising its human and natural resources. Could South Africa, notwithstanding its challenged history, become an exemplar for the new emerging world of reconciliation, pluralism, diversity and collaboration? The ‘apartheid’ National Party government's vision was Republic - thereafter it had no vision, and inevitably disappeared. The ANC’s vision was, understandably, to end of apartheid and achieve black majority rule. After that it too apparently lost its vision.

But it is just such a vision that will need to provide a new and empowering identity - beyond the flag and anthem, beyond Bafana, the Proteas, and Springboks. A vision forging an inclusive national identity with symbols that instil pride in its citizenry, honouring Mandela’s legacy, and including other historic great leaders like Jan Smuts, Albert Luthuli, and others.

We cannot go back

One of the key insights concerning complex adaptive systems is the acceptance of the reality of irreversibility - this simply means you cannot turn back the clock - you cannot go back to the past. Like it or not, you have to move forward from where you are. This applies especially to the understandable desire of many to undo Africa’s legacy of colonial history. But it cannot be undone - however the dynamics and influences of that legacy can be reconfigured to diminish their negative impact on collective thinking, as Steve Bhiko so eloquently argued, going forward. But it is also important to recognise the undoubted benefits that came with the 'settlers' - and to build positively on that. This applies to South Africa’s revisioning.?

Releasing indigenous spirit

Finally, we need to identify an ultimate purpose for governance beyond stability, beyond security, a purpose truly enabling of genuine sustainable human wellbeing. Surely it can encompass the releasing of the indigenous human spirit into even greater evolutionary expression in an intimate and create dance with the forces of nature - a new 21st century animism.???

Meanwhile South Africa stands on the brink - the opportunists will be doing the damnedest to exploit the hiatus - a vision of a deeper possibility is now critical.