South Africa Citrus Season Exports Impacted Substantial Increase in Global Orange Juice Prices

During this year, the South African citrus industry has experienced an unexpected and ironic reminder of global factors in what has been an already challenging year. The industry, currently producing around 160 million cartons of citrus for export annually, had projected to expand significantly, anticipating a harvest of 182 million cartons this season. Based on the number of new orchards, industry is anticipating a growth of 100 million cartons by 2033. The long-term vision, known as Vision 260, has been established by the citrus industry to provide the markets and logistical support required to grow production to 260 cartons. However, a series of unforeseen events have significantly altered the trajectory for this year’s exports.

The Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa (CGA) is coordinating efforts to prepare for this projected increase in volumes, and has been working proactively to address the logistical, infrastructural, shipping and marketing challenges of the industry. This initiative focuses on improving transport, storage, and port infrastructure while also opening new markets for South African citrus. However, while the industry had been meticulously preparing to meet the export demands, an unexpected surge in demand for juicing oranges has shifted the landscape.

Brazil, the largest global producer of orange juice, typically supplies 70 to 75 percent of the world's orange juice. However, the spread of Huanglongbing (HLB) disease, also known as Asian citrus greening, has severely impacted their citrus crop, slashing production by 24 percent. This decrease in supply came as a shock to the global market, resulting in a sharp increase in the price of orange juice futures. With Brazil producing 18 million tons of oranges annually, this drop left a significant gap in the market.

South African citrus growers, traditionally focused on exporting fresh fruit, suddenly found themselves presented with a lucrative opportunity: processing their oranges for juice. Historically, juicing returns have been lower than those of fresh fruit exports. Yet, with orange juice prices skyrocketing—up from R1,000 to R6,000 per ton—growers were incentivized to divert their fruit to local processing plants. Processing plants have been running 24 hours a day to meet this surge in demand, which doubled the volume of oranges sent for juicing.

This shift marks a significant departure from the usual strategy. While the CGA had been preparing for increased exports, with an emphasis on fresh fruit, the dramatic rise in juicing demand has led to reduced export volumes. Many growers, enticed by the better returns from juicing, opted for the safer and more profitable processing route. This resulted in lower-than-anticipated fresh fruit exports, with the industry projecting just 161 to 165 million cartons packed for export—down from the 182 million originally forecast.

Adding to the complexity of the situation were unseasonal weather patterns, including frost damage in key citrus-growing regions like Limpopo and Mpumalanga, and extreme weather in the Western and Eastern Cape. As a result, the anticipated export growth fell short of the initial estimates.

In an unexpected twist of irony, what was shaping up to be a season of record-breaking exports turned into one driven by local demand for juicing oranges. The infrastructure improvements intended to handle a surge in export volumes were less urgently needed this year due to the unforeseen local processing boom.

As the season closes, it seems that despite the challenges, the South African citrus industry will still pack a record number of cartons, slightly above last year’s 165 million. However, the makeup of that record will differ, with a much larger proportion of fruit processed for juice rather than exported as fresh fruit.

Looking ahead, the CGA is considering whether this shift toward juicing might have longer-term implications. The upcoming strategic planning sessions and the CGA’s Citrus Summit in March 2025 will explore whether the juicing boom is a short-term response to Brazil’s HLB crisis or a lasting trend. Experts, including Professor Marcos Nevas, a leading authority on Brazil’s citrus industry, will provide insights into the future dynamics of global orange juice supply and demand.

This year has underscored the unpredictability of the agricultural industry and highlighted the need for flexible strategies. Despite these unusual circumstances, Vision 260 remains focused on long-term growth through fresh fruit exports.