Sound Research is Key to Staying on Top of the Reality of the Pandemic

Daily US COVID-19 deaths surged on June 25. After nearly three weeks of daily death totals under 1,000, and several days below 500, June 25th’s US death count of 2,437 (according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) is shockingly high. In fact, it’s the highest daily death number since April 30.

At first look, the latest tally paints an extremely disconcerting picture. However, ITR’s research uncovered that the surge is largely attributable to a change in the way that the state of New Jersey classified deaths. For the June 25 count, New Jersey health officials included previous probable COVID-19 deaths. Due to this approach, an additional 1,854 fatalities were included in the New Jersey daily total – and therefore the overall US daily total – for June 25. If not for this classification change, the US number would have been 583, which is in line with the daily death tallies reported over the past two weeks.

This latest development shows that even reliable data (in this case deaths caused by COVID-19) can be skewed significantly by one-off events. That’s why we at ITR focus our analysis on credible, tangible trends rather than the anomalies. Sound research is fundamental to staying on top of the reality of the pandemic, and ITR remains a voice of reason in a hype-saturated world.

In the coming weeks and months, it will be paramount that you continue to base your business decisions on reliable data and sound economic analysis rather than fear and sensationalism. ITR Economics is here to support you at this challenging time with our steadfast counsel and decades of expertise.