Sorry Agriculture, The China Miracle is Over
Damian Mason
Businessman, Agriculturist, Speaker, Author, Podcaster, Host of XtremeAg.farm's "Cutting The Curve."
I know, you’ve been hearing nonstop China talk from every Agricultural talking head for nearly two decades.
It was the same story from every hack Ag prognosticator for the first decade of China’s meteoric economic rise —
“If 1.4 billion Chinese people eat one additional cheeseburger and pork chop per week the world will need to produce 2 times the amount of food…blah blah blah.” ?
While North American Ag LOVED the reinforcement message of “just keep on producing more soy, corn, pork and cotton" (and just about every other commodity!), I began sounding the Anti-China alarm several years ago! Watch this video from 2020:
Now, if it’s not apparent, the China thing is fizzling fast. And no, it’s not because of Trump. In 2024, China’s Ag purchases from the USA will total about $24 billion. That's less than two-thirds of their purchases in 2022 and looking ahead to 2025 things will be even worse. Mexico and Canada — nations with one tenth China's population and 3 percent of China’s population respectively — are our number one and two Ag customers at around $ 29 billion each. ?
What Happened to China??
Lots of stuff but in general:
A. They found other suppliers, namely Brazil, which China is attempting to establish as an economic satellite.?
B. China’s economy — along with its population — stopped growing. And its economy might very well begin turning south just as the nation’s population is doing. ?
Why We Gotta Get The USMCA Trade Deal Right (Because China Is Going Away)
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3 周growing triangular trade of Russia (resources/fertilizer) => Brazil (crops) => China (food) has been reshaping global flows. At the same time, the greater connectivity across the agri supply chain is enabling more flexibility to restructure and decentralize certain parts, which should allow localized circuits to emerge.
Helping LEADERS Excel ??Authentic, Real & Raw??C-Suite Changeformational? Growth Speaker/Advisor??Human Capital Optimization ??ProfessionalPERFORMANCEMagazine.com Publisher??CSP/CBE/CMC/PDM
1 个月Damian Mason you nailed it!! Coupled with China's integration into South and Latin America for the past decade and at warp speed the past 4-years, it has made inroads to those nations as Agri-conduits to feed their people and play in the Western hemisphere - OOPS D.C. has been on vacation!
I help busy agtech founders educate their customers on autopilot. I make YOU the hero. | Startup founder | O'Reilly author (RFID Essentials)
1 个月Man this nails it. It's so easy to get addicted to that one whale customer and forget about your regulars.
Farm management; Ag Futurist; Speaker
1 个月You should make tshirts that say this. I’d love to walk around the farm progress show wearing it.