Sooner than you think

The shipping industry or rephrasing the whole industrial civilization is at a crossroads. The industrial infrastructure built on the back of fossil fuels is ageing and disrepair. 

 Even though we love to believe in conspiracy theories the 97% of the publishing climate scientists support the consensus that climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities.

 Covid 19 pandemic has dented oil consumption and brought forward forecasts about when the global oil demand may peak. Some Oil majors believed that we have already reached that turning point, whereas others predict oil demand to peak around 2027 and 2028. 

 Renewables generated 38% of the EU’s electricity in 2020, overtaking coal and gas to become the primary source of electricity for the first time in Europe.

By 2022 electric vehicles will cost the same as their internal combustion counterparts, meaning that most probably, your next car will be an electric one.

 A significant shift is underway, leading to the widespread adoption of “green” energy technologies in the next decade.

 Economic revolutions occur when new communications technologies converge with new energy regimes in the history of humanity (Rifkin Jeremy).

 The fourth industrial revolution has been triggered by the decline of the globalization financial model and the rise of the new economic models that will rely on new sustainable energy regimes and breakthrough communication technologies.

 Covid 19 pandemic was the once in a lifetime “black swan” event that exposed the Achilles point of the current global financial model and will expedite the transition to IR 4.0.

The IR4.0 will fundamentally alter how we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. We do not yet know just how it will unfold. Still, one thing is clear: the response to it must be integrated and comprehensive, involving all global polity stakeholders, from the public and private sectors to academia and civil society.

The previous industrial revolutions have impacted the shipping industry: It moved from sail-powered shipping to steam-powered shipping in the First Industrial Revolution, to oil-powered shipping in the Second, to satellite-guided navigation and digital transport in the Third.

A closer look at the first, second and third industrial revolution shows that the technology was changing but over lifetimes or couple of generations. The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance.

The possibilities of billions of people connected by mobile devices with unprecedented processing power, storage capacity, and access to knowledge are unlimited. And these possibilities will be multiplied by emerging technology breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and quantum computing.

Maritime Industry will continue to serve as the backbone of world trade and the most effective and cost-efficient way of transferring goods, hence sustaining economic growth.

 IMO’s roadmap to decarbonization targets to reduce CO2 emissions across international shipping by at least 40% by 2030, followed by 70% in 2050 (compared to 2008 levels) and complete decarbonization by 2100.

Is there space for improvement? I will answer this question by mentioning that Shipping Industry still relies on marine reciprocating engines introduced in 1903. Hull designs have been the same for decades.

In a changing world, the shipping industry must adapt (at a cost). Shipowners have to envision and plan for the ship for the next 20 years, provided that shipyards will offer them.

 We are sure that after 20 years we will be driving an electric car. When will “green” zero-emission ships be readily available?

Sooner than you think.