Something Big is Brewing: Is India trying to reclaim PoK?

In recent days statements seem to be emanating from important functionaries of India’s defence and security sector about its intent of wresting Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) from Pakistan under the authority of the February 22, 1994 Parliamentary Resolution passed jointly by both houses of India’s Parliament. Jingoism has emerged in the public domain with inadequate information on what this is all about. The common general refrain is about the question: When will the Indian Armed Forces physically clamber onto the mountains around Muzaffarabad, Gilgit, Skardu or Dhansam to close the chapter on Pakistan’s (and China’s) occupation of J&K?

Can PoK be taken back?

For common Indians it appears that we are in no position to take back PoK, Aksai Chin and other areas in Pak/China occupation in the foreseeable future. If negotiations lead towards formal demarcation of the border with a wide demilitarised zone, it may pave the way for converting it into International Border at a later date. However there are many elements which are not easily visible to untrained minds.

PoK and Aksai Chin are part of Kashmir, says Amit Shah in Lok Sabha. “Kashmir is an integral part of India, there is no doubt over it,” said the Home Minister while moving a resolution for abrogating some provisions of Article 370 and the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill 2019. Mr. Shah on 1st August 2019 said that there has been a long-standing demand for giving Union Territory status to Ladakh which was fulfilled by the Narendra Modi government. “Kashmir is an integral part of India, there is no doubt over it. When I talk about Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan occupied Kashmir and Aksai Chin are included in it,” he said. On this, Opposition leaders said that the minister was getting “worked up”. Shah hit back saying he was “ready to die for Kashmir”.

India’s goal is to reclaim areas such as Gilgit and Baltistan in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) in accordance with a resolution passes unanimously in Parliament in 1994 said defence minister Rajnath Singh on Oct 28, 2022. He said, “India will achieve its goals when it reaches Gilgit-Baltistan”.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s recent statement on October 28, 2022 reaffirming New Delhi’s resolve to reclaim Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) has pressed a panic button in both Pakistan and China. What has given Islamabad and Beijing more jitters is a Srinagar based senior Indian Army Commander’s remarks that “We will not look back once given orders”. Northern Army Commander Lt General Upendra Dwivedi said that, “The Indian Army is ready to execute orders like taking back Pakistan-occupied Kashmir”. Again another message from Rajnath, “Dhairya rakhiye,” (be patient) as some people in his public meeting shouted they want Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Nothing could have illustrated uneasiness in China and Pakistan after India’s strong signal about PoK better than the statement from Xi Jinping and Li-Sharif,” sources pointed out. “Jinping expressing concern over Chinese nationals in Pakistan and repeatedly talking about support to Islamabad ‘against any threat’ said it all as these remarks came right after India vowed to take back PoK,” said a diplomat. “Pakistan PM Sharif, who had some other financial and economic agenda at hand to discuss with the Chinese leadership, remained focused only on the Kashmir issue particularly in the light of Rajnath’s assertions, and that is what gobbled up most of the time and focus of his Beijing visit,” he added.

His comment was seen as a reaffirmation of New Delhi’s resolve to wrest back the control of India’s territories under occupation of Pakistan. Days after the Defence Minister’s statement, Chinar Corps Commander Lieutenant General ADS Aujla said. “The Army is fully prepared to act on whatever orders are given to it”.

What strategies India must adopt to reclaim Pakistan occupied Kashmir?

The issue of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) is a complex and sensitive one, and any efforts to address it must be done in a manner that respects international law and diplomatic norms. Reclaiming PoK would require a comprehensive and strategic approach, which would ideally involve both political and diplomatic efforts. Here are some strategies India could consider:

1.??? Bilateral Talks: Encourage bilateral talks with Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir issue, including the return of PoK. This would require creating an environment conducive to dialogue, which includes addressing cross-border terrorism and maintaining peace along the Line of Control (LoC).

2.??? Diplomatic Engagement: India should continue to engage with the international community to raise awareness about the issue of PoK and garner support for its cause. This can include lobbying at the United Nations and other international forums.

3.??? Building International Consensus: India can work on building a broad international consensus on the issue, emphasizing the importance of respecting the rights of the people of PoK and holding a free and fair plebiscite to determine their future.

4.??? Cultural and People-to-People Diplomacy: Encourage cultural exchanges and people-to-people diplomacy to foster a sense of solidarity and commonality among the people of PoK and the rest of India.

5.??? Legal Measures: Explore legal avenues to bring international attention to the issue, such as seeking advisory opinions from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or taking the matter to international arbitration.

6.??? Soft Power: Leverage India's soft power, including Bollywood and its rich cultural heritage, to influence public opinion in PoK and globally.

7.??? Human Rights and Development: Highlight human rights abuses in PoK and demonstrate India's commitment to the welfare of the people living there. This can help garner international sympathy and support.

8.??? Economic and Infrastructure Development: Focus on the development of the regions adjacent to PoK to demonstrate India's commitment to the welfare of the Kashmiri people and to showcase the benefits of integration with India.

9.??? Media and Information Warfare: Utilize media and information campaigns to present India's perspective on the Kashmir issue and PoK in a favourable light.

10. Sustained Efforts: Understand that reclaiming PoK is a long-term goal that may not yield quick results. India should be prepared for sustained diplomatic efforts over an extended period.

The Best Options

The General Sentiments

It's important to note India has been traditionally exercising first five options since decades and these seems to bear no fruits. While we continue to go through the motions so far as above first five options are concerned, a qualitative shift has been distinctly noticed India paying more attention to options listed in serial 6 to 10. India is definitely in position to use its soft power and recent release of Gadar – 2 and response of public confirms it. Reactions of people in PoK and even in Pakistan towards this film proves that they are now more inclined to stand with India rather with Pakistan.

The recent utterance on PoK and Indian army’s capability to execute the order of government is seen as a psychological move by Army Chief just to know the response from PoK and Pakistan government. But to our surprise Pakistan government and PoK people have not responded negatively. Which shows the people of Pakistan want to join with main land India as their economy is in a pathetic situation. The public view seems to veer towards the general weakness of Pakistan today as a nation which is internally imploding with a failing economy and perceives this as the appropriate moment to use military means to wrest PoK.

Human Right violations in PoK are very alarming and world community is taking note. The citizens of PoK are getting exasperated and becoming vocal in bringing media attention to alarming conditions of human rights. They have been openly demanding them to be made part of India.

Senior Congress Leader and former Chief Minister of Uttarakhand Harish Rawat said on 5th Dec. 2022 that, “Pakistan is weak now and it is the right time to take back Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). It's our duty to take back PoK, a proposal was passed regarding it in Parliament during Congress government...This should be on Modi govt's agenda.” The senior congress leader said. Rawat said that taking back Pakistan-occupied Kashmir should not just be in the Narendra Modi-led Central government’s talks but also in its action and agenda.

The Military Options

One seasoned Strategic Analyst says that, “These are sensitive military and government decisions to be made in utter privacy of the Defence domain of our nation, and not to be debated and narrated through open media channels.? Nevertheless the world knows and we Indians know that it’s a cake walk for the armed forces of our nation to take back our POK, when the time is right.”?

At the expense of sounding jingoist, one expressed his confidence, “When Northern Army Commander says they can do it, they will do it and win, no questions asked! We trust our Army who is absolutely practical, capable and responsible”. Pakistan has no doubt about India’s conventional fighting force being superior to its own. If the Indian military attacks POK, Pakistan will surely open fronts on other parts of International Border (IB) and LoC, and also draw China into the conflict to open additional fronts on our Himalayan borders and to make disabling cyberattacks. This will be militarily and economically draining for India. Besides, in desperation, Pakistan may go nuclear. But will it go nuclear? I don’t think so. Has

The Conducive Weather and Climate

Presently popular sentiment is India, This brings us to the moot question, if India wants to recapture PoK, what is the most appropriate time to do? The weather and climate conditions in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) can have a significant impact on military operations. PoK is a region with diverse terrain, including mountains, valleys, and plateaus, and its climate varies from one area to another.

The weather and climate conditions in PoK can be harsh and challenging for military operations. It is crucial for military planners to carefully consider these factors, develop appropriate strategies, and provide soldiers with the necessary training and equipment to operate effectively in such conditions. Additionally, the specific objectives of military operations and the location within PoK will greatly influence the assessment of weather and climate suitability for those operations.

Indian Armed forces, specially the Indian Army conduct annual exercises in Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh regions in the months of August to October every year when monsoon is over and winter is yet to set in. The agricultural fields are not yet cultivated after monsoon accept paddy fields and cross-country movements are easier for all terrain vehicles and weapon systems. Close to international borders, these exercises are conducted for the very purpose of training and preparedness for war like conditions and for real war.

Now is the right time?

Considering that the term of present government will over soon and elections are round the corner and also considering the indications for early elections, the most appropriate time for any action to recapture PoK is now! The present political dispensation has given very strong resolve towards this and not only have their political cadre supporting it bur also common people seemed to share same sentiments. International leadership has given clear indications of their unwillingness in getting directly politically and also physically involved in bilateral conflicts. Russia – Ukraine war is living example where war continues even after one and half year. ?

Being a nuclear power is insignificant in such conflicts. After its dissolution in 1991, Ukraine became the third largest nuclear power in the world and held about one third of the former Soviet nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Yet both the parties have consciously steered clear of nuclear options during the war, and, prior to the beginning of war this factor was never a deterrent for both the parties.

Pakistan’s nuclear capability is well known by the world but perhaps best known by India. It is not about possessing the nuclear warheads, it is also about swift and accurate deployment and delivery of atomic weapons. The Pakistan’s strength or rather, its weakness is well known. Their own ‘first strike capability’ and their incapability of swift counter measures in case of Indian first strike was previously doubted but recently proven on March 9, 2022, India accidentally fired a BrahMos missile into Pakistan, with ‘human error’ causing the unprecedented incident. Pakistan was napping then. Pakistan was caught in deep slumber during Balakot Airstrike also. In response to the Pulwama terror attack, 12 Indian Air Force Mirage-2000 fighter jets used precision-guided munitions to attack the terror-training camps in Balakot, Pakistan, in the early hours of February 26, 2019. No self-respecting country would be proud of its response in the wake of this air strike.

Conclusion

All above factors well considered and also considering that series of war exercises presently undergoing, troops are battle ready, India’s air and ground superiority well established, weather and climate being very conducive with strong leadership with global high stature and acceptance, it is most appropriate time to recapture PoK.

It is not war mongering but pathological analysis of ground situation, political climate and peoples’ aspirations. There will be collateral damages. Some may call it very expensive and self-damaging misadventure. But we need to remember the price India has paid for surrendering Katchatheevu, abandoning Tibet, neglecting north east and being mute witness to China usurping Aksai Chin. No cost is too big for the sovereignty of our country.

Nation first! Always!! ????