Some thoughts on COP28, July 2023

The 2023 COP28, will be held from November 30 until December 12, 2023 at the Expo City, Dubai.

EU countries (ministers from the 27 EU member states) agreed to promote a global fossil fuel phase out this March, attempting to boost a global deal that failed at last year's summit

"The shift towards a climate neutral economy will require the global phase-out of unabated fossil fuels," the EU text said, citing the scientific consensus that this is necessary to avoid more severe climate change. "The EU will systematically promote and call for a global move towards energy systems free of unabated fossil fuels well ahead of 2050", it said, adding that global fossil fuel consumption should peak in the near term.

Europe is in the midst of transforming its energy system combining two aims (use renewable energy or energy savings) to meet climate targets (1) and end decades of reliance on Russian fossil fuels (2).

Some countries are hoping this year's COP28 summit could clinch a global deal on phasing out CO2-emitting fossil fuels - not only coal, but also oil and gas.?

More than 80 countries, including the EU, supported an Indian proposal to do this at last year's summit, but Saudi Arabia and other oil and gas-rich nations opposed it.

Divisions over Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

CCS (an umbrella term for a range of processes that aim to trap CO2 emissions caused by burning fossil fuels) is at the centre of a deeply-divided debate. Oil and gas-producing countries and the industry argue it is necessary to extract climate-damaging gases while the world keeps powering activities with fossil fuels.

The European Union will push for a global pledge at COP28 to phase out unabated fossil fuels.

The commitment would mean stopping coal power and eliminating emissions from the oil and gas sector, but with only a minimal role for carbon capture (CCS). Campaigners and a host of progressive nations claim it is a loophole for the fossil fuel industry that will prolong the climate crisis. Why do they say this? Because billions have been put into CCS already, and all projects failed.?

The EU wants governments to sign up to a pledge with three main elements:?

• tripling renewables rollout by 2030
• doubling the annual rates of energy efficiency gains
• accelerated phase-out of fossil fuels with a “residual” role for carbon abating technologies.

The COP28 hosts, the United Arab Emirates, are a big proponent of CCS. In May, the new COP chief Al Jaber angered many climate politics watchers when he called for a phase-out of “fossil fuel emissions”, saying that oil and gas will continue to play a role in the foreseeable future. In other words: Keep burning fossil fuels, and suck emissions out of the air with the CCS that has never worked. Al Jaber’s stance was clearly biased, because if it wasn’t one would have to assume his plan was insane- in my opinion, it could be compared to sitting on a tree and sawing on the branch while telling everyone, one’s sneakers were knitting new branches. If you do not believe me, be my guest and google a bit for CCS that had substantial success.

I have been following CCS for years and I could not find anything that worked. I think CCS and cold fusion are something we can follow up on after 2030, when we have substantially made progress in terms of renewable energy. After we have become independent on powering our lifes by creating harmful gases, we can even use the energy we do not use up on green H2. It will not help us to power individual transport, when extreme power is needed.?

The COP28 chief has since softened his stance slightly, calling for an accelerated energy transition that “phases down the use of fossil fuels”. We can assume if he would not say this, he would have to be removed from his position, since all evidence is speaking clearly against the efficiency of CCS.?

Lisa Fischer from the think tank E3G wants countries to stop “hiding behind a so far little progressed pipedream of carbon capture”.?

The EU’s other big pledge ahead of COP28 is on tripling the annual rate of deployment of renewable energy between now and 2030.

Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said the proposal is for a “voluntary, non-binding pledge” for other countries to sign up to.

I sincerely hope that someone will bring up another idea: that countries, which will not pledge to triple renewables by 2030 and phase out fossil fuels by 2045*?(*I am not sure about this, because in my opinion, 2050 is much too late according to what science says, so ideally we try to do as much as we possibly can by 2030 - what do you think?), will not receive any (or any substantial?) financial help when they suffer from events caused by global warming. The other way around: we need to find a way how we can finance (and collaborate on) each other's transition, because this is not something one country can do all by itself. This is something I think we must discuss, as I think this can not be a club where you join and leave whenever you feel like it. Everyone on planet earth is in this together and you cannot just join a club when it is convenient for you.

The renewables pledge is expected to cause less friction in Dubai. Sultan Al Jaber is strongly backing the proposal, which has already attracted support from the US, Chile, Colombia and representatives of small island states.