Some thought on how many EV can be sold
How many EV can we actually make?
For some time now I have been saying that there is disconnect between political EV aspirations and what actually is feasible with regard to EV adoption. There has been a lot of press about banning ICE cars and by when. My point is that it is battery capacity and not range or price, which will determine EV numbers and whether political aspirations will be achieved.
I propose that the determinant of EV numbers is the world capacity to produce cells and not cars or batteries. The next factor is the number of cells per car battery.
I found an article in the FT dated March 5th 2017 by H. Sanderson, T Hancock and L Lewis. They work on the premise that I giga watt hour (GWh) will power 40,000 EV for 100km. This equates to a 25kWh battery. My experience of a 24kWh car for 3 years bears this out.
The authors list all the major producers and predict that 84% will be produced in China or the USA by 2020. Note at this point that a Chinese group have just bought the Nissan battery business. By simply adding up all the output figures for each plant, we get a total of 174GWh.
So this gives, assuming 25kWh batteries a global maximum number of cars at 7m. If we look at the trend to 40kWh batteries, this drops to 4.35m vehicles for the world. Research also reveals that the world production of cars alone is circa 76m (2016). These numbers are not accurate as smaller plants are not included but are there to serve as a good guide to what is possible.
Summary
There is enough potential to replace at best 10% of the worlds car production with BEV by 2020. If we just go hybrid only we can at least double the output to say 25%. If we go 40kWh we reduce again. To replace all car production we are looking at increasing cell production at least 10 fold. This does not include energy storage ambitions or replacement batteries.
We could and will get breakthroughs in battery chemistry but we all need to reflect on what is realistic vs what is desired and plan a transition sensibly.
President & Chief Technology Officer at Nous Energy
7 年Perhaps also add an interim step. EREV vehicles, such as the (older) Chevy Volts, have only 16kWh batteries or ~40 miles of battery range, along with ~400 miles of "Extended Range" on the gasoline tank. Since most of us drive much less than 40 miles daily, you can understand how our (gasoline) fuel consumption realizes a benefit well out of proportion to the linear thinking of ICE engines. In other words, the 40MPG gasoline consumption efficiency, as reported by the EPA is a linear extrapolation, and it is wrong, when real world driving is considered. At 35,000 + miles, I have used 42.4 gallons of gas (825MPG). The remainder is solar energy. Volt owners report 400 MPG – 1000+ MPG routinely. As my last car, (a Volvo), came in at about 25MPG, a 3,300% gasoline efficiency improvement is a major leap forward.
Director, Energy & Earth Resources Graduate Program, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin
7 年Consumer demand and supplier competition work wonders at clearing bottlenecks.
Consultant Sustainable Transportation at William Morrison
7 年10% is good enough
Chemistry specialist, strategic communications, technical marketing writer, education and content creation.
7 年Redox flow cells might enter the scene, in the next 10 years or so. You would just pick up the concentrated reactant cartridge packs at the 'petrol station' and swap spent ones to be recharged.