Some predictions and analysis of foreign trade prospects in 2024

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I. New opportunities and challenges for the foreign trade industry in 2024

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Opportunities:

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1. The downward exchange rate makes prices cheap, and Chinese manufacturers have the price advantage to continue to compete for overseas consumers

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2. The technology cycle may bottom out and rebound, and the export of electronic products will also bottom out and rise. This is very important for a major manufacturer and exporter of consumer electronics

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3. Although the 1+N production chain transfer of multinational companies has reduced our finished product export orders, Chinese companies that have transferred the production chain will still purchase raw materials or accessories from China, which also creates opportunities for the export of our raw materials and accessories.

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4. Driven by AI digital technology, foreign trade will undergo a transformation.

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5. The global demand for sustainable and environmentally friendly products is growing.

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Challenges:

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1. The US election year may bring new shocks to Sino-US trade relations, and the continued decoupling trend of the United States may further drag down our commodity exports.

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2. The "minimum" trade rules being discussed and formulated by the U.S. Congress will have a negative impact of tens of billions of dollars on my country's e-commerce companies and domestic clothing, daily necessities, gifts and other production companies.

3. The impact of the global economic recession.

4. Exchange rate fluctuations may affect the price competition of product exports.

5. International trade frictions may increase the difficulty of market exports.

6. With the continuous upgrading of digital technology, many fraud risk awareness preventions need to be enhanced. We should be more vigilant against foreign trade fraud when doing foreign trade.

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2. Be cautious about over-developing the European and American markets in 2024

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According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's exports to Europe showed a downward trend in the first 10 months of 2023. First, it reflects the slowdown in European economic growth and the decline in import demand. Second, the European market is highly competitive, and most European buyers will not easily change suppliers. For the U.S. market, the development of Chinese foreign trade enterprises has reached saturation.

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3. What are the emerging markets in 2024?

With the rise of some emerging blue ocean markets and China's deepening investment and cooperation with countries along the "Belt and Road", these countries have gradually become the "hot cakes" of foreign trade companies.

1. Southeast Asian market: Since 2020, Southeast Asia, the main body of ASEAN, has replaced the European Union and become China's largest trading partner. Highly mobile, with high social media penetration and dominated by young consumers, its shopping channels and product types are becoming more and more diversified; the rise of social e-commerce and brand independent stations, and the strong growth of emerging categories. In addition, according to the published data, China's daily necessities, motorcycle parts, luggage, equipment, etc. are also commodities with large import volumes in the Southeast Asian market.

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2. Central Asian market (Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan) The Central Asian market has actually been an emerging market that Chinese foreign trade companies have ignored. Their geographical location is a transportation hub that runs through the Eurasian continent. It has always been a must-go place for going east and west and going south and north. The ancient Silk Road also passed through here. Until modern times, Central Asia still has important international geopolitical and economic significance.

As for foreign trade products, clothing, daily necessities, motorcycle parts, luggage, etc. are hot-selling. And these products are also the main products produced by domestic and foreign trade enterprises.

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3. Middle East market:

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The Middle East has a high GDP level, a large young population, a diversified economy, and rich natural resources such as oil. However, excessive dependence on oil has led to weak manufacturing infrastructure, so they must import a large number of consumer goods, which has led to high demand for Chinese products in the Middle East. Therefore, it is regarded as a huge "potential stock" by more and more companies going overseas.

Secondly, the promotion of the "Belt and Road" policy will better combine the resources and geographical advantages of the Gulf countries with my country's production capacity advantages, and promote the deepening of cooperation between the two sides in more areas. China's imports from the Gulf countries are mainly crude oil and natural gas, and China's exports to the Gulf countries are mainly industrial products, mainly electromechanical products, machinery and equipment, textiles, metals, chemicals, plastics and rubber, and transportation equipment.

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4. Latin American market:

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As the "Belt and Road" strategy advances in depth, China-Latin America economic and trade cooperation is becoming increasingly close. In 2020, China-Latin America economic and trade withstood the impact of the epidemic and maintained the 200 billion US dollar mark for the third consecutive year; in 2021, China-Latin America trade volume increased by 41% year-on-year, reaching 450 billion US dollars; in early 2022, Nicaragua, Cuba, Argentina and other Latin American countries successively signed "Belt and Road" strategic cooperation documents with China. After the European, American, Southeast Asian, Japanese and Korean e-commerce markets, the Latin American market is gradually becoming a new business blue ocean and has attracted the attention of many foreign trade people.

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IV. Product selection and market recommendations for the foreign trade industry in 2024

1. Sustainable development and environmentally friendly products

Potential markets: EU, North America, Australia and other regions that implement strict environmental protection policies.

Market development strategy: focus on renewable materials, low carbon footprint, and recyclable products, such as green building materials, biodegradable plastics, green energy solutions, etc. To develop these markets, companies should obtain relevant environmental certifications, such as the EU eco-label and green seal.

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2. Health and personal care products

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Potential markets: Asia, North America, Europe

Market development strategy: With the global aging, increased health awareness and the expansion of the middle class, the demand for health products, nutritional supplements, smart health devices, etc. is growing.

3. High-tech products

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Potential markets: North America, East Asia (especially South Korea and Japan), Europe

Market development strategy: With the development of technological innovations such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, 5G communication technology, and wearable devices, suppliers are required to continue to develop innovative products and respond quickly to the market.

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4. Building materials products

Data show that China's building materials products: SPC flooring, LVT flooring, wallboard product exports have continued to grow in the past few decades,

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Potential markets: Middle East, Asia, Africa

Market development strategy: The increase in global population and the rise of the middle class have driven the demand for high-quality agricultural products and food.

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5. Outdoor sports products

Potential markets: North America, South America, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia

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Market development strategy: After the epidemic, more and more people are pursuing a healthy lifestyle, but each region has different preferences for outdoor sports, and the products are relatively wide. Improve independent research and development capabilities to cater to new trend products while focusing on the application of environmentally friendly materials.

How can the outdoor sports industry seize global business opportunities? Attached entry strategy

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In summary, 2024 is still a year of opportunities and challenges. We need to maintain an optimistic and positive attitude, and at the same time improve our abilities in all aspects through continuous self-study, so as to face the new year in a better state!

#Foreign Trade #Foreign Trade Situation #Building Materials Products