Some positive life changes to come out of Covid

In this article I wanted to explore the impact of the pandemic and how in our environment and society things should change for the better.


The starting point is the World wasn’t prepared for this pandemic.


Bill Gates warnings have now been much publicised. In a 2015 TED Talk, Gates said the world was unprepared for the next epidemic. He gave frequent warnings after that.


In 2018, Gates said that the next pandemic was imminent and that he believed it would arise and spread within the next decade. "In the case of biological threats, that sense of urgency is lacking," he said. "The world needs to prepare for pandemics in the same serious way it prepares for war."


In a recent interview with the BBC he stated that – “No government will come out of this with great credit. Very few countries are going to get an ‘A’ grade”.


Preparation just wasn’t seen as a priority, now we are dealing with the consequences.


The point being that we have and had technical capabilities they just were not deployed.


Simon Mair, University of Surrey has written a great article on how we might solve some of the issues and has highlighted options in terms of social and political change – he stated - “One of the things the Covid-19 crisis could be doing, is expanding that economic imagination. As governments and citizens take steps that three months ago seemed impossible, our ideas about how the world works could change rapidly. Let us look at where this re-imagining could take us. “


So, there is potential to change our futures substantially – the scene is set. 


We will be better prepared for future pandemics and lockdown and social distancing will be part of the improved management,  together with better tracing and tracking and more investment in pharmaceuticals.


What has changed during the pandemic?


We have seen a terrible human price paid and continuing to be paid. There have however been some positive developments that will change how we engage and live in the future – changes that are likely to have a big impact on our lives. 


Home Working and Videoconferencing


With the lockdown a huge percentage of the working population are working from home. Many business and workers have found this to be a positive experience.


We have seen a huge expansion in the use of videoconferencing.


Business have not only been able to operate effectively but we have seen lots examples of rapid adaptation with new products being conceived, developed and launched in days and weeks instead of months and years.


Its shown that remote working can work with savings for businesses and employees and a positive environmental impact.


Guy Berger, Principal Economist of LinkedIn  reported on 8th April - “The number of job postings on LinkedIn that are remote jobs have gone up 13% since the beginning of March 2020,” 

“I definitely think we will see a longer-term trend in more remote jobs over the next year, and even two years,” said Brie Reynolds.

Reynolds is a career development manager at Flexjobs.com, a site that has listed remote job postings for the last 13 years.

The longer the lockdowns stay in place, experts believe, the more likely it becomes that a greater portion of the current and future workforce will be permanently remote based.

Technology has its part to play in supporting this. This requires good connectivity and engagement tools such as videoconferencing.


Zoom has acquired more users – 20 million at the end of December now up to 200 million.


LogMeIn reported a 20% worldwide increase in February of its GoToMeeting usage. It launched free access to “Emergency Remote Work Kits” for three months – which gives access to GoToMeeting and GoToWebinar plus other tools.


By the beginning of March – Cisco’s Webex had seen a 22x increase in traffic in China.


Major platforms – Slack, Google, Microsoft and others are also seeing major growth.


It’s a space in which some huge international IP and Unified Communications players are set to expand including Avaya, Ring Central, Centile, Cisco and StarLeaf to name but a few.


There are issues – StarLeaf Research – shows that one third of UK organisations using video conferencing – have issues because of poor audio quality.


Broadband providers and Mobile Networks have seen a surge in data usage but in general terms seem to be coping – with streaming services being downgraded to SD from HD.


The future though, looks promising. Remote working is likely to be much more prevalent after the pandemic. Zoom CEO Eric Yuan stated – that the new call for video will see a “fundamental shift in how people work”.


Bandwidth is increasing – 5G is starting to be introduced and better high-speed bandwidth is being rolled out.


A study by Global Workplace Analytics estimated that in the USA 56% of the workforce had jobs that were compatible with home working and 25 to 30% of the workforce will do some homeworking every week over the next 2 years.


Home deliveries


With the lock down and social distancing there has been a huge increase in home deliveries – as we can’t go out and shop. This has been across the board.


Pubs and restaurants have had to adapt to provide home delivery or click and collect services if they want to continue trading.

 

In China, home food delivery has seen a boom. 

A report from New Zealand concluded, “As the home food delivery market grows, so will the logistics back end needed to support it. Greater scale, coupled with lower fuel costs, will help make delivery more affordable and accessible. Once home delivery becomes a habit, it's likely to continue post-pandemic.” 

Moreover, as logistics companies improve their backend systems there are some exciting new innovations. Alphabets drone delivery service “Wing” made over 1,000 deliveries in the first 2 weeks of April according to Business Insider, while Bloomberg states that there has been a further doubling of deliveries in the USA and Australia.


Automation, Engagement and Digital Transformation


With a global recession on the way businesses need to be more efficient. Strategists at leading investment firm Nobel Laureates, warn of an “imminent” global recession, exacerbated by a US$13 trillion global stockpile of negative-yielding debt. In this situation businesses will need to find new ways of meeting customer needs, creating new revenues and driving efficiencies 


The drive will be to reduce costly and inefficient processes or engagement that could be undertaken by Robotic Process Automation (RPA), bots or digital intervention and engagement. That frees up human resources to tackle other business issues.


Adapting to new working set-ups and dealing with colleagues and customers more remote than usual has become the new norm – and there has been a lot of goodwill and resilience on display across the board. However, there is no doubt that technology has played its part in supporting and connecting people and businesses in these challenging times. Those who had started on the road of digital transformation are seeing the real benefits now, while other businesses are evaluating how digital engagement can assist on critical projects to keep them connected and supporting their customers – and new prospects.

 

Traditional call centre set ups have seen unprecedented inbound enquiries, putting live agent solutions under immense pressure – with this problem being compounded where staff cannot attend or access solutions due to illness, time-off to support family or imposed lockdowns.

 

Traditional retail banking, which was already under pressure from a wave of new mobile and online banking offerings, has been forced to accelerate digital transformation programmes to optimise customer experience where remote access is the only option.

 

Those retailers that had previously stayed clear of e-commerce or treated it as a secondary channel to bricks and mortar, are now under huge pressure to ramp up activity in this space – from ordering through to fulfilment – to answer unprecedented demand for online shopping, and the ability to track urgent orders to the point of delivery.

 

As hospitals and healthcare workers reorganise themselves to support large parts of the population at this difficult time, automation and a variety of communication channels are critical in dealing with patients, their families and employees about appointments, FAQ, test results, critical updates and staff work schedules. 


It is clear that businesses that embrace change and take decisive action will continue to thrive. The following points summarise some of the key areas that will be critical along the way:

-       A multi-channel strategy that optimises 1-to-1 personalised engagement

-       Increased automation to drive efficiency and improve customer experience

-       Clever deployment of chatbots to enhance and supplement human interaction – particularly at peak times

-       The ability to visualize and track your digital transformation and rollout – to improve and re-calibrate over time and introduce new concepts

We can also expect an Increased reliance on Robots. Robots aren't susceptible to viruses. Whether they are used to deliver groceries or to take vitals in a healthcare system or to keep a factory running, companies realize how robots could support us today and play an important role in a post-COVID-19 world or during a future pandemic.

Digital & Mobile Payments


Persistence Market Research (PMR) has stated – that


“An increase in the lockdown period across different nations is expected to decline the overall monetary value of transactions. However, even with the purchase of necessary goods, the digital payment market is expected to witness an increase in revenue. “


Recent growth has been fueled by concerns that the virus can be transmitted via cash and cards. That has seen a shift in consumer choice to digital payments and a huge momentum for the influx of new products and services that are well placed to benefit – such as mobile gaming which is exploding. 


This shift is being encouraged by major organisations. In India the Reserve Bank of India has been encouraging consumers to adopt digital banking services seeing a major growth in mobile payments. M-Pesa has been waiving transaction fees on mobile wallets to rapidly growth its base in Africa.


With the major penetration of mobile devices – PMR expects to see a spike in mobile payments and growth even against a backdrop of overall decline in e-commerce as consumers spend is reduced. Moreover, retailers are increasingly incorporating mobile payments into their payment options.


That is a tremendous performance against a backdrop where Juniper Research expects global digital commerce to fall by 14% in 2020 


I did a post on Friday 27th March 2020.


https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/gcorbett_digitalcurrency-mobilepayments-payments-activity-6649044406743638017-11BA


There are now 1 billion accounts using a mobile payments platform. It’s the “normal” way of transacting in many parts of the World – Asia and Africa especially – yet almost non-existent elsewhere. 


Mobile payment specialists like Dynamic Mobile Billing and Tola Mobile are well placed to support merchants looking to implement mobile payments.


Digital and mobile payments will mean a reduction in cash and a stimulus to mobile commerce. There are 4.78 billion smart phones and feature phones globally – meaning 61.5% of the World’s population potentially could access these services.


Travel


I expect there to be potentially significant future impacts.


Reduction in air travel

There was already an environmentally friendly #nofly movement that was gaining momentum before Covid. With the growth in videoconferencing which has become a ‘normal’ way of doing business it’s expected that business travel will decrease so air travel will not see the same levels again. In terms of personal travel that should also see a decline.

"People haven't changed in that they still want to go places, but they're going to necessarily be a lot more cautious about what they do," said Adam Blake, a professor of economics and head of research in the Department of Tourism and Hospitality at Bournemouth University. "And they're going to need not just persuading that it is safe to travel, but they'll need to see actual physical changes made to make travel safer."


Increases in Road traffic – decreases in public transport


Its natural for those that return to work, being packed in on public transport, especially until a vaccine is found, will not be appealing. As such we might expect to see an increase in road traffic. Indeed, as China came out of lockdown there was a surge in car sales and that is expected in the UK as well.,


A research study by Autotrader showed that 56% of those that didn’t have a car currently were considering buying one. It also found that 50% of those surveyed said they were less likely to use public transport (this will be a further stimulus to home working from the employees perspective), another driver to buying a car. 75% said that they were more concerned about their personal space.


In Germany similar buyer behaviour is expected. 


This trend was summed up as follows: “Public transport is a hotspot for the spread of disease. Many people obviously feel safer in their own cars than in buses or subways. This is currently influencing our business in China,” said Stephan W?llenstein, the head of Volkswagen’s China business.


Pollution


In a recent study by YouGov in the UK - People have noticed significant changes during the lockdown, including cleaner air, more wildlife and stronger communities.

Not surprising – transportation of all types has seen a rapid decline and much of our manufacturing has closed. So, some of the main contributors to the pollution of our planet have been much reduced. Aviation and Driving contribute 72% and 11% respectively of transport’s greenhouse gas emissions – transport accounts for 23% of all greenhouse gas emissions globally

Levels of pollution in New York have reduced by 50% compared with last year. In China emissions have fallen 25% since the start of the year and the proportion of days with “good quality air” was up 11.4% in 337 cities in China compared with last year. European satellite images show nitrogen dioxide emission fading in Northern Italy. Similar stories are playing out in the UK and Spain.

The question is will this be maintained? 

There is some hope as detailed here. Changes in working environments – more working from home, and investment in new tech businesses changing the business mixture will mean less pollution.

Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate and Environment Research in Oslo have noted that overall 2020 may still see a drop in global emissions of 0.3% .


Whilst as detailed here it’s expected that there will be an increase in road transport – home deliveries and people moving from public transport to their own vehicles.


The hope is that there is now a stronger momentum to drive greener industries and more environmentally friendly forms of travel – electric and EV. There certainly appears momentum for this as a recent article in the Guardian details:

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/green-energy-could-drive-covid-19-recovery-international-renewable-energy-agency

Summary


So, what do we expect to see:


It looks likely that we will see a lot of positive changes in society following the pandemic primarily:

-       Reduction in pollution driven by: Movement away from older legacy business towards technology business and changes in working practices, but ultimately by a more positive momentum to deal with this crisis. 

-       Growth in home working supported by digital communication tools.

-       Upskilling of our workforce as digital engagement, automation and robots – makes businesses more efficient and releases resources to be redirected.

-       Growth of home delivery supported by a move to home working and technology improvements in logistics driven by innovation and increased use of technology.

-       Growth of ecommerce and m-commerce driven by changes in the working environment and uptake of digital and mobile payments.


Some of the overall benefits being a positive impact in dealing with the environmental crisis, and improved and more flexible working practices.  



Author – Gary Corbett is an investor in fast growing international technology businesses.

10th May 2020

 

Kev D.

Fintech & Cyber Security CEO | High Impact Leadership, Experienced C-Level Exec, Thought Leader, Strategic Planning, Business Transformation

4 年

Excellent thoughts gathering and commentary Gary Corbett, thanks for sharing.

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Vanessa Stewart

Commercial Partnerships Manager at England Netball

4 年

Fantastic insight into what we can expect to unfold over the coming weeks and months. There is huge potential for companies to digitally revolutionise!

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