Some Politically Incorrect Thoughts about the Covid-19 “New Normality”

Introduction

Dears,

As usual, let me stress that I write as a private individual and not as a member of any company or other organisation … easy to say this time, as I am “de facto” unemployed.

As an "amateur" journalist and historian (and wit) I tend to hijack the social networks for my own purposes, since my old newspaper closed many years ago. I am not doing too badly, judging by the amount of “reads” I have had in a few of my pieces. There is not much point in competing with the professionals concerning news, so if there is any value in my contributions is that they might be thought provoking. Some will find them amusing, some irritating, and although I am not aware of any mafia contracts against me (yet), I am sure some despair and cry out “Why does he not just shut up or even drop dead?”.

On 1st May, I wrote a piece called “My Seven Weeks in Confinement”. It is now a month later, and Switzerland has been de-confining by stages. On 8th June, a new stage will start. Life is now almost back to normal, but the Federal Government has been saying that we are in a “New Normality” and cannot go back to our previous behaviours. Shops might be open, but we must still avoid shaking hands, keep social distances, refrain from giving hugs and Latin "abrazos" … By what I see in the streets, however, many of these recommendations are being ignored. Many people are behaving as before.

Other countries are advancing more slowly, for example Colombia and the United Kingdom (to mention nations with whom I have a personal connection). I was informed that India intended to deconfine on 31st May, but that it has now extended confinement by one additional month. I learnt this because some books I ordered from there have not yet arrived, so I am giving my supplier some slack. In Sweden, where the “no confinement” policy enjoyed wide support, they are now starting an enquiry about how the government handled the situation. There was no massive catastrophe in Sweden, but studies show that the country suffered more deaths than other Scandinavian countries which went into confinement. Today I saw a magazine cover with the photo of Chancellor Angela Merkel and the question: “Did we over-react?”.

This general background is available in the news … what follows are some personal thoughts.

Is Confinement Binary?

I was out and about this weekend, during which we had lovely summer weather. Switzerland has now almost totally de-confined, but the government issued some very clear guidelines ... social distance, no handshaking, etc. What I saw:

a) Hundreds of people on the lakeside ... not too close together, but not always keeping social distances.

b) Virtually nobody is wearing a mask, as this is not compulsory. This is also true of the train, which I took last week to attend a job interview.

c) A lot of youngsters shaking hands when they meet their friends ... I thought we were not supposed to do this anymore ... Mind you, now that we allow people who don’t live together to sit at the same table, does refraining from shaking hands make a difference?

d) A couple of girls hugging each other when saying good-bye.

e) The number of tables in restaurants has decreased to allow the 2-meter social distance, but I did not see tables being disinfected in restaurants when a group comes and another goes ... they clean the tables as before the Covid-19 emergency, but no more and no less.

Granted, a great deal of effort is being made … They have limited the number of people who can be in a supermarket or a shop or at the post office at the same time; doors (where possible) have become “entry” or “exit” only; assistants in some shops wear masks; there are Plexiglas barriers everywhere … but the situation this weekend (as I describe it above) makes me think that these efforts might not be enough, because people are simply not “playing the game”.

It seems to me that, even in Switzerland, which is a disciplined country, "partial" deconfinement is not going to work too well, because people are behaving as before. I got the impression that in people's minds confinement is binary: either it is 100%, hard confinement, or no confinement at all.

This is really scary, as it could trigger a second wave very easily. Clearly, we cannot go back to confinement, as people will probably disobey. We are probably going to have to suffer several thousands of deaths before people realise that they need to change their behaviours. It is a sad fact that humans often need to be driven by fear … As in democratic societies it cannot be fear from the police, it will have to be fear caused by death, and death in sufficient numbers to be visible and hence credible.

Some friends thought the Swiss government had been paranoid when it imposed the confinement; others were of the opinion that the authorities had been negligent because they de-confined too quickly. I think the government probably acted correctly. Nobody knew what was going to happen, so applying precautions (like the rest of the world) made sense … As for de-confinement … well, my impression was that the authorities feared “civil disobedience” and decided to let the people be responsible for their own behaviour. There was a Friday night (or was it Saturday night?) in Basel where an entire night-live area ignored all rules after the partial deconfinement. In Lausanne (“Les romands, toujours les romands”) somebody actually organised a football match which was attended by 1,000 people. The police realised that it would have been useless to intervene because of the numbers involved … they probably also feared a riot. The Swiss authorities probably decided to deconfine quickly because, among many other reasons, they did not want to see blood on the streets.

And if this is happening in super-disciplined, super-rich Switzerland, what can we expect in other parts of the world where people are more desperate and less obedient? The technical term is “civil disobedience”.

In summary: Partial deconfinement is unlikely to work unless people behave, but people won’t behave until they realise that the threat is real. And the threat will not appear real unless and until we have a significant number of deaths. To change, we might need to go beyond “I saw an old person dying of Covid-19 in the news last night” to “a member of my family died or was seriously ill”.

Public Transport and Air Travel

I have been a “faithful user” of planes, trains and buses for my entire life. I have commuted to all my jobs (seven and counting) and have visited more than 50 countries for business or pleasure. I have seen prices come down, and also some quality aspects. I have short legs, perhaps fortunate for a traveller, but as the Brazilian Leopard in the famous sketch, I must say that “I need space”. Alas, airlines and railway companies have been reducing space per passenger over the years, as industry studies clearly show.

https://www.aardman.com/work/creature-comforts-short-2/

Three or four years ago, I complained to the Swiss Railways, which had changed the configuration of the trains running between Zurich and Luzern. They had reduced the number of 2nd class carriages and increased the number of 1st class ones. This meant that people in the 2nd class were packed like sardines, whereas the 1st class was virtually empty. This was obviously a cheap ploy to push their customers to buy 1st class … Alas, I got a smug answer in German (I had written in English) saying that “they were always looking at optimising their service”. I read enough German to understand that there was something missing in their standard reply: a picture of Pinocchio. And the fact that they sent a standard German reply to an English complaint was disrespectful. Clearly, being a monopoly, they think they can get away with anything … and, sadly, they are correct.

Well, is the “New Normality” with Covid-19 not a good opportunity to try to introduce some safety and comfort (aka space) and looking at the train configuration again? I have no doubt that the 2m distance will not be possible, but there might be some improvements?

What is going to happen if the situation does not change is that many people, driven by fear, will prefer using their cars. This will bring other problems: more pollution, more accidents, more time wasted in traffic jams. Because we have been focused on Covid-19, we have forgotten about such issues, which are equally or even more serious and which will not go away.

And Air Travel? We have crowded the skies, brought prices down, reduced seat space ... so we cannot not expect quality or comfort anymore ... Air travel has become unpleasant and now with Covid-19 it has also become less safe. Someone once told me that "Travel" comes from the French "Travail", which means "Work". I am not sure this is true, but my friend has a point.

Every time I have to change planes in Frankfurt, I have to run … which pushing 58 and at 95 kilos for 1.62 meters is no mean feat. The stop-over time is short and the gates can be far away from one another. There is also an element of suspense, largely because there are internal controls inside the airport and you have to stand in the queue. Doing this in the “New Normality”, wearing a mask, is going to be even more fun … and social distances in queues will introduce delays. To make it doable, the airlines might have to increase the stop-over times, or reduce the number of passengers, or the number of flights … Logistics at airports are going to have to change dramatically. They might have changed already, but I have not taken a plane since the Covid-19 epidemic started, so cannot say.

Lufthansa recently sent me an e-mail, proudly telling me that they were re-starting operations … It was compulsory for me to bring my own mask and wear it during the entire flight … and because their air filters were so good, they did not need to implement social distance. Ummm … Here, I thought they were out of line. If you ask passengers to bring their own masks, you will not be able to ensure that masks of the correct quality are used … People can bring anything that looks ok but might not be ok. I found this airline’s attempt to save a few kopecks on masks totally inappropriate. They should, in my view, be issuing the masks themselves.

As for service and stereotypes … In the last few years, I successfully made my all connections at Frankfurt but often it was in the nick of time and sometimes my luggage did not follow and arrived at its final destination on the next day. Not everyone was that fortunate. I once sat next to a delightful Austrian lady who had to spend the night in Frankfurt because ... well ... she did not make the gate because her first flight was late. She was not amused, but it was because she did not see the big picture. She should have taken the opportunity to explore "Frankfurt by Night". Fortunately, the "chaotic" Colombians provided better service than the "organised" Germans. On arrival in Bogota, airport officials made sure all passenger with urgent connections were fast-tracked at controls and immigration … and my Austrian friend managed to board a domestic flight to the Colombian coast. You don't get fast-tracking at Frankfurt in such cases ... you just join the queue. Are Colombians more “customer-oriented”? Very probably, but they also need to handle a smaller number of flights.

So, perhaps Covid-19 is an opportunity to bring some quality back to air-travel by reducing the number of flights and of passengers? Wonderful for the environment also? Alas, this is obviously an “elitist” solution because it will bring prices up and restrict air travel to the wealthy. Our affluent European middle and working classes might have to forget about the Maldives and go back to Rimini or Benidorm as their elders did.

“Open Spaces” and “Home Office”

I have been in employment for more than 30 years, and with the exception of three years in which I had my own office, I was always in an “Open Space”. For me, this is normality. Yet, I cannot avoid thinking of the British liaison officer at Bastogne, in 1944. Posted to the American 101st Airborne Division, he was later asked about his recollections of this epic battle. His answer was terse, un-Atlantic and politically incorrect. All he could remember was “the noise … and the people!”

Actually, I have no general complaints about the people … I have met great, good, average, bad and diabolical colleagues in my long career. But … the noise … the difficulty to concentrate … the lack of privacy … the common cold virus spreading to all and sundry in autumn and spring … I always thought “Open Spaces” were not the best idea, even if I got used to them. Today, the Swiss-French radio brought “Open Spaces” into question, in the Covid-19 world, and this is a valid point. Should we not be building more internal walls between colleagues or groups of colleagues? With flexible partitions, this is quite doable, we are not talking of making the world safe for the cement industry! “Breaking silos” does not require having everyone in the same room.

“Home Office” has been possible for a long time, thanks to advances in the Internet and associated technologies. What this crisis confirmed is that in many cases it can work and it can work very well indeed. Now, the challenge to companies is to find a right combination between “Home Office” and time at the premises. There are great potential savings: smaller offices, less time spent travelling, fewer road accidents, to mention only a few … but also challenges: implementing good working conditions at home, dealing with isolation from colleagues, communication problems, and being able to keep work and private life truly separate. And, for those of us in expensive countries, there is always the danger that creative management, realising that working remotely is possible, will send jobs to cheaper places.

The Environment

The lockdown, if I remember the figure presented on Swiss television last night correctly, reduced air pollution by 17% and this only in a matter of weeks. Good news … but we are not staying in lockdown … lockdown is not sustainable, economically or socially.

Initially, many thought that Covid-19 would be a great opportunity for questioning our way of life and to become more ecologically-minded. Here, I was always skeptical and thought “Bloody Hippies”. Unfortunately, I might have been right. To protect the economy, governments are now pushing ahead with aid packages, but my understanding is that few ecological constraints have been introduced in those packages. The environment, which is on the whole a more serious issue than Covid-19, has been given second priority. Utilisation of plastics and single-use products has sky-rocketed, because they are, or are perceived to be, safer. This consequence of the “New Normality” with Covid-19 is extremely negative for the environment.

As a civilisation, it is imperative that we keep our eyes on the ball … meaning the main ball … and the main ball has to be the environment. Covid-19 might cost us thousands, perhaps millions of lives if we are not careful but the human race will survive. Pollution will bring planetary destruction. We need to give the right priorities, but I cannot see how democratically elected leaders will get the support they need from their peoples. The temptation to cure immediate pain and neglect the long term will prove irresistible.

Will Coughing become a Capital Offence?

Oh, boy.

If you cough these days, people look at you with fear and even hostility. You can see them thinking: “Does he have Covid-19? Why does he not stay at home?”

This morning, the French-speaking Swiss Radio had a doctor explaining the difference in the symptoms between Covid-19 and ordinary Hay Fever … There are many reasons why people cough … hay fever but also allergies, smoking, a dry throat … Yet, when we hear someone coughing. We immediately and inevitably think he might have Covid-19.

What is going to happen in the autumn, when we have the usual large number of cases of ordinary cold and normal flue? People with ordinary coughs attempting to commute to work or to buy groceries might trigger mass hysteria.

We are indeed living in interesting times … unfortunately, too interesting.

Business is too important to be left to the Businessmen

David Lloyd-George, British Prime Minister during the second half of the First World War, is credited with the sentence “War is too important to be left to the Generals”. Actually, the man who said it was Georges Clemenceau, his French counter-part, but Lloyd George “stole it with pride”.

For generations, the West has felt safe and grown smug … What is important is to make more and more money. We have allowed key industries to be delocalised; and some of the essential industries which have stayed in the rich countries have been sold to foreign investors, some of whom are strategic adversaries … notably but not only the Chinese.

During the first stages of Covid-19, we realised how dependent we were on foreign imports … and in my article of 1st May I predicted that in our “New Normality” we would see more public intervention in the economy. You don’t need to be a genius to predict that! We became more aware of the risks of not doing essential things here. Autarky is obviously impossible, but we have become more conscious of National Security, and this is not a bad thing. It is clear that national security considerations demand that we keep a tighter control of key industries. This cannot be unrestricted protectionism, but clearly the wish to “make the additional buck” can no longer dictate decisions. It is a question of balance, and a balance in which national security (or more broadly, the national interest) needs to be more important than profit.

A few days ago, Lufthansa received financial assistance from the German government (and rightly so). What amazed me was that the company’s chairman, and this with a straight face, actually went on record complaining about the fact that two government-appointed members will now sit at the Board! Now, Now … Perhaps I am a simple engineer and no management material, but the way I see it … If the government is putting public money in a company, it makes perfect sense that the government keeps an eye on what that company is doing. To go further … Public money is not “government money”. It comes from taxes, so it is citizens’ money. So, as a citizen I have the right to expect that, if they are using my money, at least they will not use it to send my job to, for example, Bangalore. Governments are absolutely correct when they link financial assistance to the needs of their citizens.

Swiss, the “national” Swiss airline, also received financial assistance from its government. Rightly, there are conditions attached to it, and the money has to stay in Switzerland. Alas, Swiss is a subsidiary of Lufthansa … so it belongs to a German company. How two national interests can be harmonized is an interesting point. An analyst expressed concern that the German government might encourage Lufthansa to privilege its intercontinental hubs in Frankfurt and Munich, to the disadvantage of Kloten-Zürich or Cointrin-Geneva … Should you be selling your key industries to foreign companies, even if they come from a friendly power? Tsst … tsst … Too late, the deed is done, and was done a long time ago.

To summarise … In the current crisis and its aftermath, I am convinced that there is a case for government oversight of vital industries. Politicians cannot have the technical competence of business leaders, but at least they are elected and as such, in a democracy, they should have the final say. Somebody has to stand up for the local economies, there are enough business leaders standing up for other local economies in order to maximise profits. In 1917, it became obvious that war was too serious to be left to the generals. In this crisis, Business might have become too serious to be left to the Businessmen.

American Dream or American Nightmare?

The United States are the richest, most powerful country in the world, but also a nation with huge inequalities. Any form of Welfare State smacks of socialism … and socialism, which is main-stream in Europe, is often considered an aberration on the other side of the Atlantic.

The “American Dream” is a reality for many … comfort and also democratic freedom. It is, however, based on the assumption that you are fit. The weak get few freebies in American society, and if disaster strikes and you are unemployed, even your health insurance disappears.

Covid-19 should be an opportunity for the Americans to reflect on their society … 25% of the workforce applying for unemployment benefits, millions with no access to medical treatment, race riots, an inflammatory president talking of sending the army into the streets … This cannot be, the United States is not a Banana Republic or a North Korea. The United States is still the world’s paramount nation and the only true superpower.

This crisis should prompt the Americans to use their formidable wealth to build a truly Great Society, in which a more solid social network ensures better protection to its weaker members. The dollars, there can be no doubt, are there. Attlee’s dream of building a society fit for the heroes who endured and won the war is not just a quaint reference to Britain in 1945. It reflects a noble and universal inspiration. The American Dream cannot be equated with the survival of the fittest.

And then, there is Sex!

As I mentioned, what I saw in the streets this weekend shows that the young are now flirting as before the confinement … A friend of mine, for example, has been using dating sites to find a partner and has met four different girls in the last week. Alas, he is in his early 30s; in my case, I will be 58 on Saturday and have given up gracefully.

Alas, in this last stage of de-confinement, the Swiss Government announced that Prostitution, which was always legal, will once again be allowed. The Sex Clubs, like all industries, need to put a “Safety Concept” in place, and the Swiss television interviewed a manager of such an establishment: wearing masks will be mandatory, customers will have to register their name and address, no kissing and no oral sex are allowed, sheets will be changed and the room disinfected after every use… and the position “doggy style” is recommended.

No, I am not joking. This was prime time television.

I am not sure how doable these rules will be, and Sex Clubs might become one of the main weak links in the chain. However, the Swiss government was absolutely correct in lifting the ban. Not doing so would drive prostitution underground, with all the many problems that this brings. The oldest profession in the world would become more difficult to monitor, sex workers would lose protection, mafias would move in, etc., etc.

How knows? Covid-19 will certainly revolutionise technology and one the areas where we might see improvements is … well … Cybersex? Sex toys, again according to Swiss radio, were articles which sold extremely well during confinement. The problem with pornography today is that it is not interactive enough … but there is always hope and the next Bill Gates might be at work as I write!

(Might) be seeing you.

E.