SOME GOOD NEWS ON CORONAVIRUS

We can't focus every day on reading the news and saying, "OH MY GOD, THE WORLD IS GOING TO DIE!" 

That is not useful and it's not even true. 

Media companies make money scaring you. Politicians stay in office (or get office) by assuming the worst case and hoping for the best so they can say, "Look, we did everything we could." 

So ignore that. Also ignore the market. As I said the other day, as long as it's going up or down 5-10% a day, don't invest. There will be opportunities later. 

Is the market cheap? It sure is. $5,000,000,000,000 in stimulus is going to hit the economy, which is already assuming a worst-case scenario Depression which is not going to happen. 

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Listen: keep people safe. Social distancing is fine. I don't want to get this virus. And I don't want to spread it if I get it. I'm social distancing. 

But, be reasonable. Be calm. This is the story of your life and you want to make sure you are the hero of your story. 

But it's important to recognize that this pandemic HAS A LIFESPAN MEASURED IN MONTHS and not "forever" as some suggest.

This virus will run it's course and we will face massive stimulus to get the economy back in shape. Chinese stock markets are back to all time highs, for instance.

BUT...here is some good news.

First note: I've seen this list from a few different sources. Some people are claiming it's "fake news".

So I went and CHECKED EVERY SINGLE ITEM and can say these are all true positive developments.

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(1) Vaccine development: An experimental vaccine developed by Moderna Inc. began the first stage of a clinical trial on Monday, with testing on 45 healthy adults in Seattle.

[Note: people say 12 months of study needed to prove safety but my guess is they will figure out how to make this faster]

(2) China's new cases plummet: China has now closed down its last temporary hospital built to handle COVID-19. Not enough new cases to warrant them.

[Not sure if this is proof that containment worked since their lockdown occurred late in the game. Containment DOES reduce transmission though. BUT...this pandemic has a timeline regardless of containment.]

(3) Drugs that work: Doctors in India have successfully treated two Italian patients with COVID-19, administering a combination of drugs — principally Lopinavir and Ritonavir, alongside Oseltamivir and Chloroquine. Several are now suggesting the same medical treatment, on a case-by-case basis, globally.

[my note: Chloroquine is prescription and, consult a doctor, but I've been taking Lactoferrin as an OTC substitute. The basic components come from the same bark. Again, consult doctor].

(4) Antibodies to the rescue: Researchers at the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody that can fend off infection by COVID-19.

[I looked this up. Was previously discovered for SARS and not being tested for COVID]

(5) 103-year-old recovery: A 103-year-old Chinese woman has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China, becoming the oldest patient to beat the disease.

(6) Stores re-opening: Apple has reopened all 42 of its Apple retail stores in China.

[Note: Further evidence that the timeline for this pandemic is about 3 months from begnning to end].

(7) Test results in 2 hours: Cleveland’s MetroHealth Medical Center has developed a COVID-19 test that can now deliver results in just two hours, rather than in a matter of days.

[Note: True. Question: why isn't this being used by everyone?]

(8) South Korea's dramatic drop in new cases: After its peak of 909 newly reported COVID-19 cases on February 29th, South Korea has now seen a dramatic drop in the number of new cases reported daily.

[More evidence of a 3 month timeline on pandemic]

(9) Mortality rates inflated? Experts predict that Italy has seen a higher mortality rate of COVID-19 given its significant aging population, as well as its higher percentage of COVID-19 patients with pre-existing health conditions. This might suggest that COVID-19’s fatality rate may have been slightly more inflated than previously thought for the general population.

[Note: new cases in Italy seem to be stabilizing the past 2-3 days].

(10) Israeli vaccine development: More than 50 scientists in Israel are now working to develop a vaccine and antibody for COVID-19, having reported significant breakthroughs in understanding the biological mechanism and characteristics of the novel coronavirus.

(11) Full recoveries: Three patients in Maryland who tested positive for COVID-19 have now been reported to have “fully recovered.”

(12) Isolated virus: A network of Canadian scientists isolated the COVID-19 virus, which can now be replicated to test diagnostics, treatments, and vaccines.

(13) Yet another vaccine in the works: San Diego biotech company Arcturus Therapeutics is developing a COVID-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

(14) Treatment protocols: Seven patients who were treated for COVID-19 at Jaipur’s Sawai Man Singh (SFS) Hospital and Delhi’s Safdarjung Hospital in India have recovered. The treatment protocol will be widely scaled to other hospitals.

(15) Another treatment: Plasma from newly recovered COVID-19 patients (involving the harvesting of virus-fighting antibodies) holds promise for treating others infected by the virus.

[oddly...true. People saying this is 'fake news' but look up Takeda Pharma in Japan].

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Good news doesn't mean "ignore bad news".

But understand:

1) the pandemic has a timeline

2) The level of contagion (the "R naught number") seems to decrease over time. The virus gets weaker after the initial elderly population gets hit with it.

3) Economies past the peak are moving forward.

In other words:

we will survive this, we will move on, we will have vaccines and treatment, we are acting like a worst-case scenario (which is fine) but realize that the fears are probably more used to manipulate than to inform.