Solving Syria – by dissolving Syria and setting up 6 new states Ending the war in Syria based on SEE success model
Solving Syria – by dissolving Syria and setting up 6 new states
Ending the war in Syria based on SEE success model
Since 2011 the world is watching the Syrian civil war and it is still going on, today in 2018 end of April. There no easy solution to Syria all talking heads firmly profess and it is partly true but partly not. The West has all the mechanism, concepts, strategy and precedents and capacities available and based on the SEE model as well the middle east can be set on a peace and growth trajectory. If we say we have to strategy we say we simple do not want – because we do not care., but we should. Morally and politically non-action is not only sad but just increasing costs and risk and it is our problem Syria and we have to solve it.
Clearly, after so many dead, and so much blood and damage all options are costly as well. But the non-intervention of the Obama administration was in the result as wrong – as many consider it with the benefit of hindsight - the intervention in Iraq of Georg Bush.
And the 2 strikes of Trump seem limited in the lasting effect. Well some facilities are destroyed but such facilities can be re-build with Russia and Iran backing. Good, the USA and its allies seem to have defeated the IS as an organized regional political unit and fighting force and that should be applauded.
But that sad phenomenon should have never occurred if there was no power vacuum created but the US leaving and then coming back to defeat IS just 3 years after leasing Iraq. So basically, since the Iranian revolution the West is constantly involved in the Greater Middle East battlefields, coming in and getting out and getting back in and it reminds on the American experience in Europe between 1917 to 1947. Since 1947 when the cold war started America is permanently to the day in Europe, securing Europe via NATO and this resulted, jointly with the civilian pillar of the Western world – the EU - in unprecedented peace and prosperity in Europe.
Even the terrible evets of the breakup of YU in the 90ies have been overcome and the European pillar of the West – the EU were able to stabilize the Balkans after 2000 and 6 SEE states are now in NATO and 4 in EU and all remaining 6 on the way and even that troubled area is secure and on a prosperity trajectory.
Currently major efforts are ongoing to repeat that in the Eastern periphery in the Eastern Partnership countries and all sides can be confident that it will work again, despite major Russian aggression and opposition making it more challenging.
But as well the West and its twin pillars NATO and EU have developed and are able to adopt. And the lessons of the Balkans – European order via NATO, prosperity and freedom via EU will be successful again in EAP like in Central Europe and in SEE. But now in the new theater, the 4th crisis zone in the European periphery in the Middle East the West seems without strategic concept just observing chaos and drama without ending the bloodletting and without a long-term framework how for peace, stable order and a prosperity trajectory.
Why is that and what is so different and what can be done about. Otto von Habsburg has defined the crisis of Middle East in terms of a long-term consequences of the Paris 1919 peace settlement as part of the dissolution of Empires and like the Balkans – the north-western periphery of Ottoman Empire the 4th crisis zone of Syria and Iraq is the Southern Eastern periphery on of the Former Ottoman Empire.
And it is very much connected with European periphery in SEE – as we learnt in 2015 in walking distance if desperate enough - and we are not talking about a far way region but it is the border region of NATO member Turkey and EU member Cyprus and given the European historic and economic links with Israel and the US defense guarantee with Israel and the historic responsibility of UK and French colonialism rule and the sad export of European socialism to Syria and Iraq, we as West are very much responsible for what is happening in Syria.
And it is not just about the migration crisis of 2015 and the effects it had on the European political system but that matters as well.
And most of all it matters in terms of moral crisis that we are watching a civil war in our periphery with 400.000 dead and we are idle onlookers of the biggest war since World War 2 and simple do nothing with the excuse that it is complicated to find who are good people to support. Simple in reality it is a racist and Islamophobia and lazy peacenik argument and after 2015 Russian intervention as well part of the general appeasement policy towards Putin which is dominant in some segments of European leadership circles.
As many Europe was so morally to condemn the Iraq liberation of 2003 the same circles and line of thinking is happy to have left Afghanistan and Iraq in 2012 and 2014 and was advocating not going into Syria and leaving the regional factions and forces fighting it out and killing so many of their civil population in the process.
Is this morally superior than intervening? The position that Europe is then not responsible can that be the basis of policy?
Given the major intervention of taking over Syria and Iraq and build colonial rule there in 1918 and then turn them again in global battle fields and later making them part of the cold war proxy wars and all what happened since than and now to claim we are not responsible is more than hollow and moral corrupt. We as West are very much responsible for Syria and Iraq, it was our idea to have state designed like that and our ideological export ever since.
So, what to do? Do we really not know or really have no strategy and is it impossible to find one or do we simple not care enough?
In reality, we have a precedent and we could apply same concept and ETR advocates to apply the experience of the breakup of Yugoslavia.
A major socialist complicated multiethnic country that broke up from its internal division along the internal dividing lines and then major international effort for state building and economic reconstruction for all new countries of Ex YU was started with including the new states in the American – Western - European security and prosperity structure.
In the Syrian case, as well in Iraq context, this means supporting the break up in working new states along the existing regions in Syria and Iraq called Governorates. In this article ETR will focus on Syria as there fighting is going on. The Iraq case ETR will discuss in a separate article.
Syria has 14 regions and to avoid too many states and ETR suggest to cluster them logically and in working units ETR is recommending 6 new states in Syria. And then a working Western back regional security structure like NATO and a regional trade and economic integration framework has to be developed.
It is not recommended to include the region in EU and NATO but to turn the current southern neighbors into a Southern Partnership including the new states in that SaP similar to EaP and include them in PFP of NATO and foster a Turkey based regional security structure and a Egypt or Jordan based trade and economic integration project and design them very similar like NATO and EU in the same principle and mechanism and in case of economic and regulatory standards to apply the same principles like inside the EU internal market. This is to give all of them the incentive to be part of the EU internal market of goods, service and capital later.
In the mean time for the reform progress all of the will be invited to join the SEE regional cooperation mechanism for the sector reform and as well a Stability Pact for the Middle East will be launched similar like the Stability Pact for SEE and so the new countries will bet set on a trajectory to develop and prosper. It worked in central Europe and SEE and now in Eastern Europe and it will work as well in the Middle East.
The central question is it possible to break up Syria and how? In general, it is already a broken country and good the alternative is to allow Assad with Russian Iranian help to conquer all of Syria and kill or expel all he does not like.
Well, that is what is happening since 2015 in most of Syria. Only with the East being liberated by the US which sadly wants to leave now and so leaving as well Eastern Syria to Assad to kill everybody he chooses? And for northern Syria Afrin where Turkey is imposing its will in an effort to kill its enemies and protect its friends on quite arbitrary basis. Anyhow before crying, let us focus on the only possible reasonable precedent there is – YU. Unity was there as well promoted by the USA until last moment and the US is always focusing on unity in a misperception that states are in general good for the people and instrument of freedom and not of suppression. That is true in the US and the US organized and projected West but in Syria to have a unitary state means always that the group controlling the center kills the rest. And so, a unitary state under Assad is a death sentence of all others and is a license to kill the rest and so it is much better and human to have at least 6 centers where the people of the different religious and ethnic groups can find at least one reasonable area of security and safety of the state as instrument of persecution.
ETR is proposing 6 regions as well not to have too small states with the economic viability issue attached and to have working units so ETR is suggesting to cluster 2 or 3 of the regions to one new state, but before outlining and discussing all 6 please again - their old internal lines are the only alternative to create a new order with some historic and political legitimacy.
So, states like YU or the SU broke up long them and Syria can break up as well only along them or along war front lines hard to justify. And as in the Balkans if you go back to the last lasting order – based on the Vilayet districts of the Ottoman Empire and the regional boundaries there is often a geographic political ethnic or other reason for them in first place which makes such new international border more feasible.
And anyhow you can always as well refrain from doing anything and talk about peace in Paris Brussels or Berlin and wait for the most brutal to create facts on the ground and when you do not hear anything anymore in TV because the most brutal has won and established a central dictatorship again like Assad father then you are happy because it is silent – the silence of death and dictatorship.
Anyhow ETR prefers smaller states and good then there will be as well violence and injustice but people can be compensating with new house lost, and at least the all people are save somewhere with o state actor killing them.
And obviously all new states who want to be part of the international community and receive support will have to be multi- ethnic rule of law states like all SEE countries are now. Sadly, not all will be from start but Syria today is like that. But possible by time they will and at least some will have to be compliant from start as western protectorates in everything but the name and so will be from start Western concepts of rule of law and projecting of minorities prevailing. So, the damage and cost in terms of human lives will be much less than the current reality and as well it is being the basis of a working regional order. As well, ETR is advocating buying in all regional and global powers interested and so ensuring everybody to have a stake and share in costs and responsibilities as well to keep everybody busy with his stake and new state and not blocking all progress for all.
ETR has identified 6 main actors in Syria with the Assad-Iran Russia the central block, Turkey one key player. The USA with the Gulf Arabs, the EU and China should not be allowed to stand idle and as well the Western Arabs with Egypt and Jordan. For 6 international backers, powers or supporters or aggressors or interveners deepening on the perspective but 6 blocks and 6 regions and so each one busy establishing order in one part of Syria and not being able nor willing to impose its vision on all Syria.
And we will discuss and outline the 6 regions in terms of these 6 power blocks and the existing cluster of Syrian Governorate and 6 of the successor state of the EX YU as role model and better known international to understand the concepts and possible future of all these 6 new states. It is useful to call them like that during the break up as the lesser known Arab name do not relate to Western policy makers any meaningful concept and to show that it was done already and it worked very well. And it is entirely to the international community which countries to recognize and which not and it is for sure that Syria should no longer exist after all the crimes against its own people were done by its government. But it is true as well that there is some backing in the Central Syria for the power system of Assad just like it was in Serbia for Milosevic and sadly still is on some element of the society. And as there is no consensus for a full scale invasion, victory and occupation and reeducation scenario like against Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan and the EX YU scenario is by far the second best and much better than the Assad kills it all scenario and the West watching idle on the sidelines.
Please for all interested it is useful to take a look at the current Governorates of Syria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governorates_of_Syria -
all new state borders have to follow the existing current lines. ETR is just proposing to have 6 logical new states from the current 14 regions of Syria as well according to today power logic as no outside force will be massively intervening to impose a new territorial and power logical.
The New Croatia supported by EU
The future state of the two coastal regions of Syria, Latakia and Tartus. One could call it Northern Lebanon if that would not be the term for the north of the existing Lebanon but the concept is clear. The 2 existing regions along the coast will be a new state like Croatia. And supported, secured and developed with and by the EU. The EU is already very active in the region with support for the PA and Lebanon and the same instrument can be applied there. The harbor of Tartus should be open for all world but the shipments of weapons should be controlled by EU as there will be no need for further weapon in all 6 regions. The future of this state should be closely following the Lebanon role model and will be covering all coast between Turkey and Lebanon.
The New Slovenia supported by Turkey
There 2 provinces of Syria, Aleppo and Idlib which should be combined to the new Slovenia and this new state will be protected by Turkey, anyhow the regional power of significance and already in Afrin part of Aleppo. Clearly the world is condemning what is happening there and the best way is to turn the evil doer into an official protector and require UN standards and Council of Europe standards of administration. Turkey should be held accountable for all crimes it has or might commit but Turkey is a NATO country, a EU Candidate Country and not a dictatorship and should and can be relied to build a better governance than the current Assad regime re-conquering Aleppo with Russian bombers and soon doing the same with Idlib and we will watch? Good Slovenia is far in terms of prosperity but it is good comparism because it was far from Belgrade and so is Aleppo from Damascus and both regions have a lot in common with southern Turkey and Turkey should under a UNO mandate establish order there is possible or simple in agreement inside NATO. But the border is the current admin border of the Aleppo and Idlib regions and there a military border shall be established by Turkey.
The new Bosnia, Raqqa, Zor, Hasakah – supported by USA, Japan, Saudi Arabia
These are the areas the US and the Kurds have just liberated from the IS and sad the US want to leave now and Trump repeats the Obama escape and run and come back next year to fight the IS? That is crazy! No this new state is like Bosnia diverse and complicated, it saw a lot of fighting and now it is calm and better keep it like that and it is the border land to Iraq and this the US needs to control to avoid another IS style caliphate roaming freely in-between. These 3 shall be one now country with Kurds a majority but will Arabs live there and other minorities and multi ethnic like Bosnia and yes it might be difficult but much better than leaving all for themselves and coming back next year to sort it out again. And his will be medium term USA state building effort supported by Japan and Saudi Arabia and will be very successful. There is some oil there is some good centers and there is trade with Iraq. Look Turkey does not want such a state to be like Western Kurdistan and so it should not be called like that but be something like that but under USA control. And multiethnic and called differently but in everything but the name a save place for Kurds, Arabs and other minorities to live under USA protection for a very long time.
The new Kosovo – Hama Republic supported and protected by China
Hama is the central region of Syria today and saw a lot of fighting and can be compared to Kosovo. It might as well be the last of the 6 new states to be developed and maybe a major intervention by the West will be necessary to get Assads troop out of Hama and develop the new state in its current regional boundaries. But then it should be handed over to China is a new player as a provider of security international but it is UN Security council member and now rich enough and ambitious enough so it should be invited and play a role and it has to learn the advantages and responsibility and costs of being a big power. Hama region has seen a lot of fighting and it is big central region and key link and cross road along the new silk road and so rebuilding infrastructure and major task and who can do that better then China. As well a new state protected by China will not be attached by Syrian, Russia and Iranian forces. And possible Hama Republic will be close with the Central Syrian Republic under Assad or not. Clearly all 6 states will be under a similar unification and annexation interdiction under international law like Kosovo and Albania or Austria and Germany or Moldova and Romania.
The new Serbia – Central Syria Homs, Rif, Damascus secured by Russia and Iran
The central province of today’s Syria will form a new state with Damascus as capital and a kind of smaller Syria, the parallel with Serbia is striking. Russia and Iran will continue to protect it like today and continue to support it. It will be irredentist and revanchist but on the other hand the people backing Assad today will be interested in security and not being prosecuted and be secure in their own state which will be governed by the same elite like today just a bit smaller state it will be and it will not cover the breakaway regions but most of them are anyhow not under Syrian Central Government control and the ones that are had to be military re-conquered so we cannot see a consent from the governed and most seem not to want that but there is some backing for the Assad regime with minorities in this Central State and so this new state will continue to be governed by Assad as a socialist dictator with all the blood and responsibility at this hands for the last 7 year. This is political and morally very difficult to defend but possible a way to buy him into accepting such a 6-state solution. Not that he will agree nor will Russia but it will be the best deal available and so hard to reject in real terms. Again the alternatives are full scale invasion by the West or full scale victory by Assad. Better to allow him in this new state like Milosevic continued to rule Serbia after the Kosovo liberation war – at least until the 5th of October 2000. Maybe Assad will with the backing of Russia and Iran establish himself as the real ruler of Central Syria State for a long term and try to re-conquer Hama State or other state but given the power equilibrium and the resources available and the regional powers protecting the new order this may be very difficult and possible his power base will see the advantages to having at least one state to secure themselves and sadly to exploit but when the other 5 states become reasonable international actors maybe morally it can be justified to leave the people there in such sad conditions as the alternatives are not available right now right here.
The new Macedonia - Dara, Suwayda, Queintra supported by Egypt and Jordan
In the south where today Syria is bordering with Golan Heights and Jordan the logical choice is to unite the 3 regions to a kind of Northern Jordan. It might be as well considered that the Golan Heights will be included at a later stage in that new country. As with Macedonia it will be a multi ethnic country. It should be secured by Egypt and Jordan with Egypt the regional power securing it. The will be no common border Syria Israel anymore and this new state will be developed like Jordan
Governorates
EX YU Model
Protector
1. Central
Damascus, Rif, Homs
Serbia
Russia Iran
2.East
Raqqa, Zor, Hasakah
Bosnia
USA, Japan, Saudi Arabia GCC
3. Center North
Hama
Kosovo
China
4. North
Aleppo, Idlib
Slovenia
Turkey
5.West, Coast
Tartus, Latakia
Croatia
EU
6. South
Daraa, Suwayda, Quneitra
Macedonia
Egypt, Jordan,
First task – First! Establish Border – Customs - Armistice – Disarmament
In implementing such a strategy, it is recommend not using ethnic or religious terms but geography – No Kurdistan or Alevistan, no reference of Sunni or Shia Islam, no Socialist, only Geographic names should be accepted and the name of any new of the states and best no use of the name Syria in any of the states. And possible names of the neighboring states like Jordan and Lebanon and obvious as well the names of the Balkan state should not be sued. This ETR has only done to show the parallel and make the role of that states understandable in the minds of Western reader. The State could be called Latakia Republic or Hama Republic or whatever the regional elites consider reasonable but it is best to avoid religious or ethnic terms. The Republic of Kosovo is as well not called Albanian Kosovo and for a reason.
And first things first, names and rest later. Establish order, by established and securing the regional border than new international borders, establish customs points and separate the regions, and the warring parties and disarm all combatants and build up new national authorities to secure the new states and then start a serious effort of national building in all 5-new state and let Russia and Iran support Assad but make it clear to him that he has no authority outside his new state anymore but he can stay in power there and will be not held accountable internationally for his crimes during the civil war as long as he keeps the armistices. A high price for justice and principle but a price to pay for peace in Syria and the end of the Syrian civil war. But key is that the borders are secured by the international partners and working contact is established along these border and control and order re-established.
Bosnia or Ex YU?
The alternative is clear. Either let the status quo continue for year as all parties have reached an equilibrium of supporters possible hindering total defeat of any party as this is the reason the civil war could last so long or to create new states later after many more years of fighting. Or have Assad win with Russian support and kill or expel all enemies.
Or enforce a Bosnia style federation of enemies by a major international action like in Bosnia and have a federation created by a international peace effort as some plan now. The issue is that the war in Syria lasted now 7 years and common consensus on who should govern in Syria is so low that such a process is not feasible – otherwise the Astana or Geneva or Turkey led process would have resulted already in something like that. ETR does not see such a consensus approaching, only a victory of Assad and him imposing his Socialist Dictatorship on all sides that could be possible but as well it would mean the West and the Arabs and Turkey given all their supporter to the block. Do you fancy that outcome? Revenge is serious business in Balkans and for sure in Syria so leaving all to Assad means a lot of revenge after what has happened since 2011.
ETR is suggesting a better scenario having a new start with 6 new states based on the assumption that the central Syrian state has no longer the moral nor political right to represent all Syrians after the Syrian government used massively force and violence against its own people. The choice is for the powers of the day mainly for the West as Russia and Iran have made their choice clear and the West has not listened to Arab leaders for humanitarian intervention for years. Now the West has the above options and the 6-new controlled break up is the least bad one and the least bloody one and the only one with a medium to long term growth and prosperity trajectory for the all people in the region and the short-term impact of armistice and a kind of peace impose on all. Cynics might say everybody to get its share. Well true and not, as in reality the control means responsibility and costs and major investments and as well the balance of power established in the region and the level of involvement and power will make sure all side will keep the equilibrium and all side are a bit winner and nobody loses as even and sadly Assad will be and remain the leader of that Central Syrian Republic but hopefully he will be disposed by his people like Milosevic was on the 5th of October 2000. That remains to be seen if that parallel applies as well but what matters most all different groups ethnic and religious will have at least one state where security, human and property rights for them are secured long term. And see where we are now 20 years after the end of the Kosovo war, the last war of the Balkans and now all on road to NATO, EU and the consequent security and prosperity. It will take as well 20 years for the post Syrian 6 but at least nobody will die in that most terrible civil war anymore.
UNO Missions or Protectorate, Mandate, Booty, Ally or Imperial Colony?
That remains to be seen if Russia and China can be integrated in such a concept and if yes better to have UNO mandate for all 6 regions or at least the 5 new states if Central Syria is allow to be the successor state of Syria which should be avoid but might be a bargain chip to buy in Assad and so base all firmly on the success of the UNMIK mission and the SEE success model.
If not than the 4 periphery new states should go ahead first and the regional powers of Turkey, EU, US and Egypt should move into or in case they are already there like the US in the East and Turkey in the north simple take control and build the new states.
We always have to see the alternative of a permanent civil war with ongoing atrocities and the consequences for the people there and the regional and global order. Best clearly would be basing the new 6 country structure on a UNO mandate zone for all 6 regions and 6 international actors to agree. If not possible the USA and EU should simple stop recognize Syria as a state and extend recognition to the 6 new units and as Eastern Syria is already under USA control turn that first into a new state. And then support Jordan and Egypt to move into Southern Syria and Turkey to take the 2 provinces fully and as well famous and tortured Aleppo. It was anyhow very long an Ottoman center of political control.
And the EU, mainly UK, France and backed by Italy and the US naval capacity to recognize Coastal Syria – New Croatia we called here - and take control of it with given effective notice to Russia naval forces to retire to the Black Sea. There should be not Russian naval presence in the European Mediterranean for sure. But better to have an agreement with Russia as this concept keeps them in Syria – and Assad in power in Central Syria and a better deal for such a mass murder might not be available ever. In consenting Assad could as well be a fully recognized President of a much smaller country but his consent and ending hostility and mechanism or Greater Syria propaganda might lead to his re-acceptance into the international community- a big price for the West and an important feature for him and his family. Let us not forget he started as young reformer back in the early 2000-ies and him and his wife were welcome guest in Western leadership circles and elite. There is as well that truth and now with so much blood spilt hard to look back but in case of settlement a comeback of Assad and long-term Russia Iranian backed power in Central Syria might be possible. It will not have an access to the Med though and not border Iraq and not border Jordan nor Israel nor Turkey but there will be a save place as well for him and his backers and as well for the elements of Syrian society who still endorse him. These exist as well in Syria and as well them should have a place to live. Look such a scenario will not be like with Iraq in 2003 or Germany in 1945. Nobody will occupy all Syria and bring justice or revenge. There is simple no will nor appetite and the situation is too complex meaning to less stakes or gains involved. Cynics might say to less oil involved but that is not the only reason. As now the Russians and Iranians are in and US and Saudi Arabia and Turkey full scale occupation by anybody would mean full scale defeat by the rest and this is not possible or prohibitively expensive financially and politically. So, the only way is to share, carve, divide or simple break it up more or less in different parts based on Western possibility to secure such a situation, because no state without Western security garantuee make no sense as we have seen with Iraqi Kurdistan. Only with such a protector the new states will work long term.
If there is a later unification movement yes sadly this won’t be allowed. If there will be a resistance movement in Eastern Syria against the USA or against Turkey in Aleppo? Or against the EU in the coastal provinces look it should be clear that there will be no colonies established but states, future independent states and they will be self-governed and sovereign and the EU, USA, Turkey as well as China, Iran and Russia will just be for a period of a decade co -governing, and after status and condition within 2 years are established there will be full political self-control and if required no help the parties agree to leave fully. But order, security and peace will be secured long term via a Western backed regional security organist ion and some form of support and to divided the responsibility and as well the task and costs and work along the reasonable acceptable lines and secure an end of the civil war and a possibility for millions to return at least in some part of their former home country and look there is no Syria who anybody will really miss. It was the name of the undeveloped Ottoman periphery, than a badly managed French colony and then a socialist dictatorship all time very hard to most of its people now a civil war zone for 7 long years and never there was real freedom, market economy nor rule of law or any form of reasonable government ever. And it can be at least in the most of today Syria at least in 5 of the 6 countries for sure and then there are role models for the Central Syria as well to follow. And at least there will be no war and mass murder and major atrocities anymore and given the success in SEE as well this sad and troubled region can find to a new order – a very different order with many smaller states but no longer hostile but working and trading with each other and not fighting each other and so gradually prosperity can be re-established. It is at least worth a major effort and better than no strategy for Syria and letting them die by default just because we could not care less as long as they stay there and we can ignore the violence. Not a very strong moral basis for the European and western policy in our southern neighborhood which we so eagerly occupied during first world war when we needed their underground wealth. This is a possible strategy – it has worked in SEE and despite the complicated reputation of SEE – the Balkans in Europe there is security, order, freedom and a growth trajectory now here in the European Balkans in 2018 and it is now happening similar in Eastern Europe until the Russia border and there is hope based on European order for Eastern Europe based on SEE success and the same and similar process, structure and institution can be applied for the Middle East and yes we should care and yes we are responsible. Time for European leadership based on European concept and not just discussing and passively watching the Syria in flames. We have all the strategy, concept and power to change that and to bring order and prosperity in our southern neighborhood is the task of a regional Super power and leaving that to Russia and Iran cannot be the concept of European power in 2018. Or is it?
This article of part of the series of Pax European – for a stronger and united Europe by ETR Chairman Gunther Fehlinger
https://www.flattax-europe.eu/yliko/pdf/Newsletters/PAX_EUROPEANA_10_March_2017.pdf