Solving for The Future - Which Side of The Picture is Your Problem Solving On?

Key Concepts in Prioritizing What Must Be True vs. Simplifying the Present

In business, the drive to solve problems quickly is ever-present. Teams deploy analytical tools to dig into challenges, attempting to deconstruct complex situations into manageable pieces—an approach ingrained in organizational thinking for decades. Yet, while this method seeks to simplify, it often results in short-term fixes that merely scratch the surface of underlying issues. True, lasting value comes not from eliminating today's complexities, but from envisioning the future you want to create and asking: What must be true for that future state to happen?

This approach offers an entirely different mindset. Instead of focusing on what's wrong and how to eliminate obstacles, it focuses on identifying the conditions that will make your desired future a reality. It asks leaders to consider what needs to be true in their organization, marketplace, and operational models to reach that future. The things that can be controlled become your priorities, and everything else becomes noise—noise that distracts, steals focus, and consumes success.

In this article, we’ll explore the contrast between these two paradigms: the analytical approach of solving present problems and the strategic approach of designing for a future state by identifying what must be true for that future to exist. We'll show how the latter mindset leads to deeper, more meaningful solutions and better organizational alignment, while the former often relegates the solution too close to the symptoms to drive real value.

The Problem-Solving Mindset: Addressing Symptoms, Not Root Causes

Traditional problem-solving methods are grounded in analysis—breaking down problems, identifying root causes, and eliminating inefficiencies. It's a logical, rational approach that works well for addressing immediate concerns. Lean management techniques, Six Sigma, and similar methods are excellent at identifying waste, reducing errors, and improving efficiency. These methods are particularly effective in environments where incremental improvements matter, and marginal gains accumulate into significant results.

However, focusing solely on reducing, eliminating, and simplifying often limits the scale of the solutions. By their nature, these approaches are reactive, responding to current pain points and addressing symptoms of larger issues. They encourage organizations to optimize around the present state, often constraining the potential for innovation and breakthrough change.

Take the example of an organization facing high employee turnover. A traditional problem-solving approach might lead to an analysis of exit interviews, identification of trends, and targeted programs to address those trends. However, these initiatives may miss the underlying causes—such as misaligned values or outdated workforce models—that contribute to dissatisfaction. By focusing only on the immediate drivers, the solution addresses the symptoms, but the root cause is left unresolved. Brian Evergreen , a key promoter of future-state thinking, is adept at shifting the focus from surface-level symptoms to the deeper issues, ensuring that leaders can address root causes and create lasting solutions.

Additionally, the fixation on elimination and simplification in problem-solving analytics frequently leaves organizations stuck in a cycle of marginal gains. The continuous focus on simplifying processes often leads to diminishing returns and sometimes results in over-optimization. In worst-case scenarios, efforts to simplify can strip away essential capabilities, leaving the organization exposed to risks or less agile in adapting to market changes.

A Future-State Mindset: Designing Solutions That Unlock Real Value

In contrast, a future-state mindset reframes the entire approach to problem-solving. Rather than asking "What’s wrong today?" and "How can we fix it?" the focus shifts to "Where do we want to be?" and "What needs to be true for that future to happen?" This approach allows leaders to set a vision for the future that drives innovation and ambitious change.

When you start with the future in mind, you’re not limited by the constraints of today’s problems. You aren’t anchored to the present. Instead, you can creatively envision a scenario where your business is thriving and then work backward to determine what needs to be true to reach that state. This forward-thinking approach fosters bold solutions because it enables you to rethink not just processes but the fundamental assumptions underpinning your organization’s operations.

Take the employee turnover issue again. In a future-state mindset, the question isn't just "How do we stop people from leaving?" Instead, you would ask, "What must be true for us to have a workforce that is engaged, empowered, and committed long-term?" Maybe that requires a complete rethinking of workforce engagement, training, and empowerment—solutions that go beyond simply addressing turnover trends and touch on broader organizational culture.

Identifying What Must Be True

The key question in this future-oriented mindset is: What must be true? This question forces you to think critically about the conditions required for your desired outcome to come into being. These conditions may span across several areas, including:

• Capabilities: What new skills, technologies, or competencies will your organization need?
• Behavior and Culture: What behaviors and cultural shifts will need to take place for success?
• Customer Dynamics: What needs to change in how you engage with your customers or how they perceive value?
• Competitive Landscape: What conditions need to change in the market, and how can you influence them?
• Technology and Innovation: What technological innovations will be essential to achieve your vision?

These truths are the building blocks of your future state, and they are different from today's problems. They force you to think about the kind of organization you need to be, not just the challenges you need to fix. By focusing on these must-have conditions, you are making deliberate choices about where to invest your energy and resources. Brian Evergreen helps leaders navigate this forward-thinking approach, guiding them to identify the key conditions that will unlock real value and drive lasting success.

Control What You Can Control—Prioritize the Rest

Once you’ve identified what must be true, the next step is to determine what elements are within your control. For example:

• Can you control the skills and capabilities your organization develops? Absolutely.
• Can you control shifts in market dynamics or competitive behavior? Less so, but you can influence them through strategic partnerships or innovations that change the game.
• Can you control how your organization’s culture evolves? Yes, through leadership and intentional design.

The conditions that you control or can influence become your immediate priorities. These are the things you invest in and optimize toward. These are the areas where you experiment, learn, and push the boundaries. On the other hand, the elements you cannot control—macroeconomic forces, regulatory changes, etc.—are acknowledged but don’t occupy your immediate focus.

This clarity of focus allows your organization to allocate resources toward the things that matter most. It enables you to avoid being distracted by issues that, while present today, do not need to define your future.

Letting Go of What Doesn’t Matter

In this process, you also free yourself from distractions. Brian Evergreen often emphasizes the importance of freeing your thinking from distractions to maintain focus on what truly matters. A future-state mindset forces you to ruthlessly prioritize the things that matter most and let go of the things that don’t. Too often, organizations become bogged down in solving problems that aren’t central to their future. Time and resources are spent addressing symptoms of a larger issue, rather than fixing the issue itself.

For example, consider an organization investing heavily in patching a legacy IT system to address operational inefficiencies. While this effort may resolve some short-term pain, it doesn’t address the broader need for a digital transformation that will enable future competitiveness. By shifting the focus to what must be true—an agile, data-driven infrastructure capable of scaling with future demands—the organization can redirect its efforts from band-aid solutions to foundational improvements that unlock long-term value.

The beauty of letting go is that it creates space for focus. Focus on the things that truly matter, the things that will move the needle. By not being bogged down in every minor issue, you free up the mental and physical resources of your team to attack the core priorities with vigor.

The Power of Alignment

One of the biggest advantages of a future-state approach is the alignment it creates across an organization. When you’ve identified what must be true for your desired future, those truths serve as guiding principles for the entire organization. As Brian emphasizes, this alignment allows everyone—across departments and teams—to rally around a shared vision and work toward the same priorities.

Alignment is a powerful driver of success. When everyone understands what matters and why, decisions become easier. People can align their efforts, cross-functional teams can coordinate more effectively, and resource allocation becomes more strategic. It fosters a sense of purpose and clarity that traditional problem-solving methods, which often result in fragmented and competing priorities, struggle to achieve.

Examples of Future-State Thinking in Action

Several organizations can be said to have embraced future-state thinking and used it to drive meaningful change:

• Amazon Web Services (AWS): Instead of focusing on optimizing data centers for efficiency, AWS imagined a future where businesses no longer needed to manage their own IT infrastructure. They asked, "What must be true for cloud computing to replace traditional IT?" and then worked to make that future a reality, revolutionizing the industry and creating an entirely new business model.
• Tesla: Elon Musk’s vision for Tesla was never about simply making electric cars more affordable; it was about revolutionizing how we think about transportation, energy, and sustainability. By focusing on a future where sustainable energy is mainstream, Tesla prioritized building the necessary infrastructure, such as Superchargers, and scaling battery production to meet the demands of a future state.
• Netflix: Rather than sticking with a DVD rental model, Netflix envisioned a future where content could be streamed on-demand. They asked what needed to be true for streaming to replace physical media, such as widespread broadband access and licensing agreements with major studios. This future-state thinking allowed Netflix to pioneer the streaming revolution.

From Reactionary to Purpose-Driven: The Paradigm Shift

The shift from problem-solving based on present circumstances to designing for a future state is a paradigm shift. It requires moving from a reactive mindset—focused on eliminating current problems—to a proactive one, focused on creating a desired future. This shift is not always easy, particularly for organizations with deeply ingrained problem-solving cultures. But it is a shift that unlocks powerful new opportunities for innovation, growth, and competitive advantage.

The key takeaway is that solving for a future state forces you to think bigger. It pushes you to challenge assumptions, prioritize what matters most, and let go of what doesn't. In doing so, you free your organization from the constraints of today and position it to thrive in a rapidly changing world. By focusing on what must be true for the future you envision, you foster a mindset that prioritizes innovation and strategic foresight. This approach shifts the conversation from merely solving present-day problems to proactively shaping the future, allowing you to anticipate challenges, create value, and build resilience.