Solving The Decisiveness Dilemma: The 4 Step Process For Making An Excellent Choice

Recently I was working to prepare a keynote address on decisiveness and had a real problem, ironically, determining what to present. Although I had some excellent research I had done myself as well as insights from other authors, there were many issues I had little or no information about.

Another concern was that I did not know my audience well at all. Subsequently, I only had a short amount of time and was not sure what information would be most useful to them. Decisions are difficult because we are, in effect, predicting the future. If I had all the facts and could accurately predict the future, it would have been easy to make an excellent choice.

The author Philip Tetlock has created valuable research on prediction. In his studies he found that a group of hundreds of experts predicted only slightly better than chance, and not as accurately as some computer algorithms. In describing the characteristics of the worst predictors the trait that stood out the most was “dogmatism”: people who are unwilling to change their minds based on new facts or evidence.

The decision making process tends to generate dogmatism. As you begin the decision making process you look at all the alternatives and gather lots of data. Suppose you wanted to buy a new car. Typically people will read reviews, talk to friends, and test drive a variety of models. At some point you make a choice. Once the decision has been made, we experience a psychological process call cognitive dissonance.

No car is perfect. There are advantages and disadvantages to each selection. So people start to question if they made the right choice. The renowned American psychologist Leon Festinger defined cognitive dissonance as the discomfort people experience when they hold two conflicting ideas or beliefs. He found that because it is uncomfortable to hold two conflicting beliefs, people reduce their dissonance by focusing their attention on only the data that supports their decision, and they avoid and ignore the data that doesn’t support their belief. The process creates dogmatism, because people want to defend the decision they’ve already made.

Recently I was talking with a large group and asked, “Has anyone here ever made a bad decision?” I wasn’t surprised when every hand went up. We all make bad decisions. Why? Because we rarely have all the facts and it’s difficult to predict the future. And to some degree our human nature makes us dogmatic as we arrive at a choice.

This week we looked at data from leaders who received excellent ratings at being decisive. We found these leaders consistently engaged in a few helpful behaviors that enabled their skill. They could help each of you to become more decisive as well:

1.   Spot problems, opportunities and trends early. The most important enabling behavior of the best decision makers was that after making a decision they remained open to and aware of problems. Rather than reduce their dissonance, they remained open to the possibility that they may have made a poor choice. For example, I often get asked for a way to predict the best new hires. I suggest a solution that will substantially increase the quality of new hires in every case. I tell them to hire people for one month and then renew their contract if the individual’s performance is strong. Most people know within a first few weeks if a new hire was a good decision or a disaster. The problem is that in the vast majority of cases people’s inherent need to justify their decision causes them to not take action within the one month window, rationalizing that things will surely get better in time.

2.   Look at three possible solutions before making a decision. Most people narrow in on a decision and evaluate only one alternative. There is an abundance of research that shows that when people look thoroughly at three or more alternatives a better option typically emerges.

3.   Go the extra mile in gathering data. When gathering data before making a decision,go the extra mile in collecting all available information. A frequent problem with decision making is that people gather only the data that’s quickly available and supports their favorite alternative. Then they decide. Of course there is other information available, but the information is never gathered. A poor decision results.

4.   Inspiration makes a big difference. People often assume that good decisions are based only on facts and data, but the human element of inspiration can favorably influence the success of almost any decision we make. One of the big keys to making a decision successful is the ability to get others excited and motivated to implement the alternative you choose.

Even in the best of cases, decision making is hard. But by applying these four enabling behaviors and avoiding dogmatism you can substantially increase your probability of making the right choice. I look forward to hearing about your results.

Register for my webinar, The Art of Making Effective Decisions, to learn more.